Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
27-Year-Old PitcherRP
Cincinnati Reds
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The first thing everyone mentions with Lorenzen is his hitting, and we'll follow suit. The right-hander was a two-way player in college and clearly has retained some of those hitting skills, posting a .290/.333/.710 line with four homers in 34 at-bats. He's the rare pitcher who is used as a pinch hitter not only in extra-inning affairs, but also as a primary option. But his primary position is as a pitcher, and unfortunately in that department the Reds still aren't quite sure what they have on their hands. He was out for nearly two months with a shoulder injury, and after returning he was really wild, turning in walk rates over 10% each month until September. He made three starts in late September, with decent but not great results (four earned runs over 13.2 innings with a 5:5 K:BB). Lorenzen is hoping to impress new manager David Bell and earn a rotation spot in spring training. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#740
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$Signed a one-year, $1.95 million contract with the Reds in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Earns fourth save
PCincinnati Reds
June 18, 2019
Lorenzen retired the Astros in order without a strikeout to earn the save in Tuesday's 4-3 victory.
ANALYSIS
Closer Raisel Iglesias was used in the eighth inning with the tying run on first base for the second straight game, affording Lorenzen another opportunity to notch a save. The 27-year-old has a 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 38:10 K:BB through 38.1 innings this season, and is 4-for-5 in save chances while also recording four holds. Lorenzen appears to be the go-to guy for the ninth inning if Iglesias is utilized earlier to escape from a jam.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .260 377 76 47 84 14 2 11
Since 2017vs Right .242 494 96 33 109 14 1 9
2019vs Left .246 64 15 6 14 2 0 2
2019vs Right .242 102 23 6 23 2 0 3
2018vs Left .282 149 28 22 35 5 1 3
2018vs Right .242 195 26 12 43 7 1 3
2017vs Left .246 164 33 19 35 7 1 6
2017vs Right .242 197 47 15 43 5 0 3
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-10%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-53%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-10%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.81 1.35 104.0 5 1 4 7.4 3.7 0.9
Since 2017Away 3.44 1.34 99.1 7 6 3 7.9 3.4 0.9
2019Home 4.24 1.47 17.0 0 0 2 9.5 3.2 1.1
2019Away 2.01 1.07 22.1 0 1 2 8.1 2.4 1.2
2018Home 2.95 1.27 42.2 2 1 0 5.3 3.8 1.1
2018Away 3.29 1.51 38.1 2 1 1 6.8 3.8 0.2
2017Home 4.47 1.38 44.1 3 0 2 8.5 3.9 0.6
2017Away 4.42 1.32 38.2 5 4 0 8.8 3.5 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Michael Lorenzen compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 20 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.17
 
K/9
8.7
 
BB/9
2.7
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
96.5 mph
 
ERA
2.97
 
WHIP
1.25
 
BABIP
.305
 
GB/FB
1.81
 
Left On Base
81.0%
 
Exit Velocity
85.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
1.9%
 
Spin Rate
2403 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
32.1%
 
Swinging Strike
12.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Lorenzen was the reliever that Reds manager Bryan Price trusted the most to get games to closer Raisel Iglesias, though that didn't always manifest itself in a traditional setup role. That was especially true early in the season when the Reds were off to a good start, and the games were critical enough to identify key situations early in the game -- notably once in the third inning against the Pirates. The Reds initially envisioned multiple relievers sharing in the save chances, but instead Iglesias colllected 28 of their 33 saves, with Lorenzen getting just two. He faltered badly in the second half, posting a 6.32 ERA after the All-Star break. Pitching as a starter no longer seems to be in the offing for Lorenzen, despite some musings midseason last year, so expect more of the same from him in 2018.
Rebuilding clubs often need to push prospects into big league situations sooner than they otherwise would. Lorenzen, who struggled in the majors in 2015 and missed the first two and a half months of 2016, definitely fell into that category. The Reds needed any help they could get and so the 24-year-old was sent to the majors as soon as his elbow healed up. After two years experimenting as a starter, Lorenzen was moved back to the bullpen and looked much sharper in the role. His average fastball velocity moved up to 96.2 mph, he struck out 48 batters in 50 innings and he cut his ERA nearly in half from the year before. The Reds have decided not to mess with success -- they will keep Lorenzen in the bullpen in 2017. He may see some high-leverage relief work, but Drew Storen and Raisel Iglesias will be the top candidates for save opportunities.
Most pitching prospects need to spend significant chunks of time at each minor league stop on the prospect ladder in order to be fully ready to contribute at the big league level. This is especially important if the prospect in question isn't that polished to begin with. All of this applies to Lorenzen, who was thrown into the Reds' rotation in late April, but appears to have not been ready for the task. Lorenzen played the outfield and pitched relief in college before the Reds converted him to starting. While Lorenzen had a 1.88 ERA in six Triple-A starts, his strikeout ratio was a microscopic 4.0 K/9, a harbinger for his struggles against major league hitters. Lorenzen could benefit from spending a half-season in Louisville in 2016, but it's uncertain whether he'll get it given the lack of veteran starting pitchers in the organization.
Lorenzen doesn't fit the mold of most prospects. Many organizations were interested in the Cal-State Fullerton attendee as an outfielder, but the Reds drafted him in the supplemental first round in 2013 as a relief pitcher, then converted him into a starter beginning at the Arizona Fall League. He got pounded there, but that frequently happens in a high-offense environment against many advanced hitting prospects, especially with pitchers with less experience like Lorenzen. The Reds quickly got him out of High-A Bakersfield, instead allowing him to develop at a higher level in Double-A Pensacola, albeit at a much friendlier ballpark for pitchers. He blossomed there, posting a 3.13 ERA over 120.2 innings while allowing just nine homers all season. The one question is whether Lorenzen can convert his stuff (94 mph fastball, good slider) into a better strikeout rate as he becomes more experienced. Thus, the Reds aren't likely to promote Lorenzen aggressively to the majors in order to get him to learn how to employ his range of pitches better.
More Fantasy News
Posts third save
PCincinnati Reds
June 17, 2019
Lorenzen recorded the final two outs of the ninth, striking out one batter, during a 3-2 victory against the Astros to register his third save of the season Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Bounces back from rough outing
PCincinnati Reds
June 2, 2019
Lorenzen retired all four batters he faced in Saturday's loss to the Nationals, striking out one. He currently has a 3.48 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 27:10 K:BB over 31 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Records second save
PCincinnati Reds
May 1, 2019
Lorenzen didn't allow a baserunner and struck out one to record the save Wednesday against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Bullpen rises to occasion
PCincinnati Reds
April 29, 2019
Lorenzen threw 1.2 innings of scoreless relief Monday against the Mets, part of a collective effort where the Reds' bullpen threw 5.1 scoreless innings. He allowed a hit and a walk, striking out one.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up save in extras
PCincinnati Reds
April 19, 2019
Lorenzen recorded the final out of Friday's game against the Padres to earn his first save of the season. He allowed one hit.
ANALYSIS
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