We have a solid slate Thursday, and there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities throughout the evening portion. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Jakob Marsee, MIA at PHI: More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Marsee is putting the finishing touches on a fine rookie season, posting a .311/.376/.510 slash line across 51 games. The standout outfielder has provided the Marlins with a prolific left-handed bat that's offered a bit of everything in terms of offensive production.
Marsee has flashed some pop alongside an impressively modest-for-a-rookie 21.1 percent strikeout rate, as he's laced 26 of his 61 hits for extra bases. Marsee has averaged nearly 2.0 total bases per game as a result, accruing 100 thus far.
Phillies starter Walker Buehler has been much better of late after struggling most of the earlier part of the season with the Red Sox, but he's still surrendering a .308 average and .372 wOBA to left-handed hitters, while Philadelphia relievers have pitched to a 5.84 ERA, .277 BAA and .326 wOBA against lefty bats at home in September.
Jo Adell, LAA vs. KCR: More Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Adell has put together a career-best all-around season, smashing 36 homers, lacing 54 of his 120 hits for extra bases and averaging 1.9 hits + runs + RBI per contest. The 26-year-old slugger is still striking out at an elevated 26.4 percent rate, but even that's come down from prior seasons this year.
Thursday, Adell will open the game facing Michael Lorenzen, who's allowed a .278 average and .364 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, also conceding a 1.7 HR/9 in that split. Adell has enjoyed previous success against him as well, getting to the right-hander for a .500 average with three singles, a homer and a walk in nine career encounters.
Adell has been at his best batting average-wise against left-handers, but he's belted 16 of his homers this season off righties at home and owns a .785 OPS, .334 wOBA and 40 RBI in that split as well. The Angels are projected for a solid 4.6 runs Thursday, putting this prop firmly in play.
Josh Naylor, SEA vs. COL: More Than 0.5 Hits
Cal Raleigh has rightfully stolen most of the headlines during Seattle's stellar season, but Naylor has been a key complementary contributor since coming over via trade with the Diamondbacks. The talented infielder hasn't missed a beat in his return to the AL, posting a .291 average and .813 OPS across 52 games in a Mariners uniform.
Naylor has hit safely in 110 of 145 games overall this season, including in 10 straight coming into Thursday night's matchup against struggling rookie Bradley Blalock. Blalock has unsurprisingly encountered a significant portion of his trouble at Coors Field, but he's still allowing a .273 average and .332 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road, along with a 1.6 HR/9.
Naylor has a tiny 11.8 percent strikeout rate along with a .296 average, .837 OPS and .359 wOBA against righties overall, and when Blalock exits, the lefty-swinging infielder will get a shot at a Rockies bullpen that's allowed a .300 average to lefty hitters in September.
Mitch Farris, LAA vs. KCR: More Than 14.5 Pitching Outs
Farris has had an interesting four-start sample in the big leagues thus far. The young southpaw opened his career in fine fashion after making the jump straight from Double-A, posting a 1-0 record, 2.45 ERA and 0.82 WHIP while facing these same Royals on the road and the Athletics at home in his first two turns. However, tough road outings against the Mariners and Rockies at Coors have led to some crooked numbers his last two times on the mound.
Farris is back home Thursday — albeit in the hitter-friendly venue of Angel Stadium — for a rematch with Kansas City, which checks in with just a .285 wOBA and -4.1 wRAA against lefties on the road in the last month. Farris limited KC to one run on three hits over five innings in his big-league debut on Sept. 2, one of the two starts in which he's recorded at least 15 pitching outs.
Even in the aforementioned pair of poorer starts, Farris has gone four and 4.1 innings, a sign the Angels are letting the young pitcher attempt to work through some adversity. Given the factors cited for Thursday's matchup, there should be a solid chance for Farris to get to at least five frames, especially with the Royals averaging a relatively modest 2.45 runs per first five innings per road game.
