Jimmy Nelson
Jimmy Nelson
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
60-Day DL
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 3/1/2019
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Everything finally came together for Nelson in 2017, but a shoulder injury suffered while running the bases in September cut short what was the best season to date for him and puts a cloud over his 2018 campaign. Nelson struggled in a couple starts early, but over his final 24 outings, he posted a 3.13 ERA and struck out a whopping 176 batters over 146.2 innings. He did not add much velocity, but he made major strides in the control and home-run prevention departments and caused plenty of uncertainty with both a quality slider and curveball. Nelson's strikeout numbers would have made him an appealing target in the earlier rounds of 2018 drafts, but he needed surgery to repair a torn labrum, and will miss, according to the Brewers, a "meaningful" portion of the 2018 campaign. While he lacks a target date for his return, Nelson will be worth grabbing as a lottery ticket at some point in drafts in leagues with ample reserve or disabled list spots. Whether or not that ticket pays off will not be known until he gets further into his recovery. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $3.7 million contract with the Brewers in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Targeting instructional league
PMilwaukee Brewers
Shoulder
September 8, 2018
Nelson (shoulder) is expected to pitch in an instructional league game before being shut down for the year, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
It's now been exactly a year since Nelson injured his shoulder, and it looks all but certain that he'll miss the entire 2018 season. The plan is for him to pitch in some simulated games in Arizona and then throw in the instructional league before finishing his season. He'll have the goal of making the Brewers' Opening Day rotation next season, though with an absence of this length, even that can't be fully guaranteed.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2018
No Stats
2017
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .249 731 168 80 158 31 3 21
Since 2016vs Right .277 805 171 54 200 26 2 21
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Left .246 354 107 31 78 16 0 10
2017vs Right .267 374 92 17 93 12 1 6
2016vs Left .252 377 61 49 80 15 3 11
2016vs Right .285 431 79 37 107 14 1 15
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
2018
No Stats
2017
 
 
-19%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-43%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.27 1.33 189.0 11 11 0 8.7 3.2 0.9
Since 2016Away 4.97 1.45 164.2 9 11 0 8.5 3.7 1.1
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Home 3.14 1.28 94.2 6 4 0 10.4 2.6 0.6
2017Away 3.90 1.21 80.2 6 2 0 10.0 2.3 1.1
2016Home 3.40 1.37 95.1 5 7 0 7.0 3.8 1.3
2016Away 6.00 1.68 84.0 3 9 0 7.1 4.9 1.2
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Nelson wasn't great in 2015, but he gave fantasy owners and Brewers fans reason to believe big things could be in his future if he could just harness his control. So much for that. In 2016, Nelson walk rate jumped to 4.3 BB/9, a rise of a full point over his 2015 mark. The result was a mediocre 4.62 ERA, as he paid dearly for each of the career-high 25 home runs he allowed. Nelson threw his curveball for a ball more than 40 percent of the time, making it easy for hitters to just spit on it and wait for him to throw the fastball. His sinker become too predictable as a result and couldn't do the job it was supposed to, as hitters managed 12 home runs and a .472 slugging percentage against it. The Brewers should be patient with the 27-year-old Nelson, but he's running out of chances to figure things out and prove he belongs in a major league rotation.
Nelson finished last year with mediocre numbers. He has showed big-time stuff since his arrival in 2013 but hasn't been able to harness his control. He walked 3.3 batters per nine innings and had four starts with at least four walks, including one start in which he walked eight in just 3.1 innings. The upside is obvious, as Nelson had six starts of at least six shutout innings – only 10 major leaguers had more. If Nelson can cut out the lowest of his lows – the three starts in which he allowed at least six earned runs – he could become a great pitcher. Nelson turns 27 this year, so he needs to turn that corner sooner rather than later.
Nelson’s showing with Triple-A Nashville in 2014 was some type of spectacular, as he posted a 1.46 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .179 batting average in the hitter’s haven known as the PCL. He didn’t experience the same type of success after being called up to the big club, but he should at some point thanks to a quality fastball and slider and his ability to keep the ball in the park. Though Nelson clearly does not need more work against minor league hitters, he may get it, as the Brewers could send him to Triple-A to keep him stretched out as a starter if he does not secure a spot in the big league rotation during the spring.
Nelson emerged as the Brewers’ top prospect in 2013, posting a 3.25 ERA and striking out 163 batters in 152.1 innings across the top two levels of the minor leagues. His walk rate jumped sharply at Triple-A, but he still managed to give up just two home runs over 83.1 innings in the hitter-friendly PCL. Nelson features both a plus fastball and slider, and he is also working on developing a changeup. That pitch could be the key to his success, but the Brewers have high hopes for Nelson in the future. He figures to open 2014 as the ace of the Triple-A Nashville rotation, but should be among the top options if the Brewers need to call up a starter from the minors.
After an average season in 2011 at Low-A Wisconsin, Nelson came out firing on all cylinders at High-A Brevard County in 2012. In 13 starts, he had a 2.21 ERA with 77 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP before receiving a promotion to Double-A Huntsville in June. Nelson found mixed success in 10 starts at that level and finished with a 3.91 ERA while struggling a bit with command (1.1 K/BB). Overall, last season was a step forward for Nelson, and it re-established his place among the Brewers' better pitching prospects. He will likely return to Double-A to begin 2013, but could receive his first exposure to Triple-A in Nashville. If he fares well, a late-season big league callup is not out of the question given the lack of depth in the Milwaukee rotation.
More Fantasy News
Tosses bullpen session
PMilwaukee Brewers
Shoulder
August 18, 2018
Nelson (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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May not return this season
PMilwaukee Brewers
Shoulder
August 15, 2018
General manager David Sterns said Wednesday that the Brewers are "running out of time" to get Nelson (shoulder) back in the fold this season, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
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Cleared to throw breaking balls
PMilwaukee Brewers
Shoulder
July 31, 2018
Nelson (shoulder) was cleared to begin throwing breaking balls and had a mound session prior to Tuesday's game against the Dodgers, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Status remains uncertain
PMilwaukee Brewers
Shoulder
July 31, 2018
Manager Craig Counsell did not provide an update on Nelson's (shoulder) status when asked Monday.
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September return possible
PMilwaukee Brewers
Shoulder
July 8, 2018
General manager David Stearns indicated Sunday he expects Nelson (shoulder) to pitch for the Brewers in 2018, but that is unlikely to occur prior to September, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
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