Jimmy Nelson
Jimmy Nelson
31-Year-Old PitcherRP
Los Angeles Dodgers
60-Day IL
Injury Back
Est. Return 2/1/2021
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Nelson opened 2019 on the injured list after suffering a setback in his recovery from shoulder surgery, which had kept him sidelined for all of 2018. He wound up returning in June, making three starts (9.75 ERA and 13:10 K:BB in 12 innings) before shifting to a relief role. Nelson made one relief appearance before landing on the shelf with an elbow effusion. The right-hander returned for the final month of the season as a reliever, posting a 4.50 ERA and 11:3 K:BB across six appearances (eight innings). His average velocity was down from where it was prior to his injury, though it rebounded a bit in September. The Brewers, who lack quality rotation depth, opted to non-tender him rather than pay up in arbitration, which is an ominous signal regarding his prospects going forward. The Dodgers gambled one-year, $1 million (plus incentives) that they can help him get closer to his pre-injury form. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a one-year, $750,000 contract with the Dodgers in January of 2020. Contract includes $2 million team option ($500,000 buyout) for 2021.
Placed on injured list
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Back
July 21, 2020
Nelson (back) landed on the 45-day injured list Tuesday, Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The righty is set to undergo lumbar surgery, a procedure which will wipe out his 2020 season entirely. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster for the Dodgers to add Jake McGee, who signed a major-league deal.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-25%
BAA vs RHP
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-25%
BAA vs RHP
2018
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .333 52 13 9 14 2 2 1
Since 2018vs Right .250 53 13 8 11 2 1 3
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Left .333 52 13 9 14 2 2 1
2019vs Right .250 53 13 8 11 2 1 3
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-16%
ERA on Road
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-16%
ERA on Road
2018
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 7.43 2.25 13.1 0 2 0 8.1 8.1 2.0
Since 2018Away 6.23 1.38 8.2 0 0 0 14.5 5.2 1.0
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 7.43 2.25 13.1 0 2 0 8.1 8.1 2.0
2019Away 6.23 1.38 8.2 0 0 0 14.5 5.2 1.0
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Nelson was coming into his own late in the 2017 season before injuring his shoulder while running the bases, of all things. The Brewers took the cautious route with Nelson's recovery and did not provide a return timetable, and he wound up missing the entire 2018 campaign due to his setback. While Nelson missed the entirety of the Brewers' postseason push, he entered the offseason healthy, and will be able to prepare as normal for the 2019 campaign. Nelson is a wild card for both the Brewers and fantasy owners, but given the way he was throwing late in the 2017 campaign, he's going to have some fantasy intrigue. If healthy, he will head into the regular season this year with a spot in the Brewers' rotation.
Everything finally came together for Nelson in 2017, but a shoulder injury suffered while running the bases in September cut short what was the best season to date for him and puts a cloud over his 2018 campaign. Nelson struggled in a couple starts early, but over his final 24 outings, he posted a 3.13 ERA and struck out a whopping 176 batters over 146.2 innings. He did not add much velocity, but he made major strides in the control and home-run prevention departments and caused plenty of uncertainty with both a quality slider and curveball. Nelson's strikeout numbers would have made him an appealing target in the earlier rounds of 2018 drafts, but he needed surgery to repair a torn labrum, and will miss, according to the Brewers, a "meaningful" portion of the 2018 campaign. While he lacks a target date for his return, Nelson will be worth grabbing as a lottery ticket at some point in drafts in leagues with ample reserve or disabled list spots. Whether or not that ticket pays off will not be known until he gets further into his recovery.
Nelson wasn't great in 2015, but he gave fantasy owners and Brewers fans reason to believe big things could be in his future if he could just harness his control. So much for that. In 2016, Nelson walk rate jumped to 4.3 BB/9, a rise of a full point over his 2015 mark. The result was a mediocre 4.62 ERA, as he paid dearly for each of the career-high 25 home runs he allowed. Nelson threw his curveball for a ball more than 40 percent of the time, making it easy for hitters to just spit on it and wait for him to throw the fastball. His sinker become too predictable as a result and couldn't do the job it was supposed to, as hitters managed 12 home runs and a .472 slugging percentage against it. The Brewers should be patient with the 27-year-old Nelson, but he's running out of chances to figure things out and prove he belongs in a major league rotation.
Nelson finished last year with mediocre numbers. He has showed big-time stuff since his arrival in 2013 but hasn't been able to harness his control. He walked 3.3 batters per nine innings and had four starts with at least four walks, including one start in which he walked eight in just 3.1 innings. The upside is obvious, as Nelson had six starts of at least six shutout innings – only 10 major leaguers had more. If Nelson can cut out the lowest of his lows – the three starts in which he allowed at least six earned runs – he could become a great pitcher. Nelson turns 27 this year, so he needs to turn that corner sooner rather than later.
Nelson’s showing with Triple-A Nashville in 2014 was some type of spectacular, as he posted a 1.46 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .179 batting average in the hitter’s haven known as the PCL. He didn’t experience the same type of success after being called up to the big club, but he should at some point thanks to a quality fastball and slider and his ability to keep the ball in the park. Though Nelson clearly does not need more work against minor league hitters, he may get it, as the Brewers could send him to Triple-A to keep him stretched out as a starter if he does not secure a spot in the big league rotation during the spring.
Nelson emerged as the Brewers’ top prospect in 2013, posting a 3.25 ERA and striking out 163 batters in 152.1 innings across the top two levels of the minor leagues. His walk rate jumped sharply at Triple-A, but he still managed to give up just two home runs over 83.1 innings in the hitter-friendly PCL. Nelson features both a plus fastball and slider, and he is also working on developing a changeup. That pitch could be the key to his success, but the Brewers have high hopes for Nelson in the future. He figures to open 2014 as the ace of the Triple-A Nashville rotation, but should be among the top options if the Brewers need to call up a starter from the minors.
After an average season in 2011 at Low-A Wisconsin, Nelson came out firing on all cylinders at High-A Brevard County in 2012. In 13 starts, he had a 2.21 ERA with 77 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP before receiving a promotion to Double-A Huntsville in June. Nelson found mixed success in 10 starts at that level and finished with a 3.91 ERA while struggling a bit with command (1.1 K/BB). Overall, last season was a step forward for Nelson, and it re-established his place among the Brewers' better pitching prospects. He will likely return to Double-A to begin 2013, but could receive his first exposure to Triple-A in Nashville. If he fares well, a late-season big league callup is not out of the question given the lack of depth in the Milwaukee rotation.
More Fantasy News
Set for back surgery
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Back
July 6, 2020
Nelson will undergo lumbar surgery Tuesday, J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles Daily News reports.
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Hiatus could enable roster spot
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Lower Body
April 28, 2020
Nelson (back/groin) has had ample time to heal due to MLB's hiatus and could break camp with the Dodgers in some capacity, Rowan Kavner of Dodger Insider reports.
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Completes bullpen session
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Lower Body
March 8, 2020
Nelson (lower body) threw 17 pitches in a bullpen session Sunday and emerged healthy, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports.
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Bullpen on tap
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Lower Body
March 5, 2020
Nelson (lower body) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Friday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
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Resumes playing catch
PLos Angeles Dodgers
Lower Body
March 2, 2020
Nelson (lower body) has started playing catch but is no longer in consideration for an Opening Day rotation spot, per Dodger Insider.
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