Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
31-Year-Old First Baseman1B
St. Louis Cardinals
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The impact of the humidor was felt in Arizona, but it did not affect Goldschmidt's power numbers. His 2017 and 2018 seasons were essentially identical; he had 73 extra-base hits in 2017, and repeated that number in 2018. He lost three homers that became doubles and triples. The problem for him was that the talent around him fell off so his run-producing opportunities were impacted. From 2015 to 2017, Goldschmidt had an average of 431 runners on base each season when he was at the plate. In 2018, that number dropped to 386. He also ran far less frequently, continuing a trend from 2017. Goldschmidt's year-over-year skills are stable and safe, and the counting numbers should improve following a December trade to the Cardinals. We have to wonder if the days of double-digit steals are gone for good, but this is still a skill set worthy of an early selection -- just probably not a first-round pick anymore. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a five-year, $130 million contract extension with the Cardinals in March of 2019.
Hot heading into regular season
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
March 25, 2019
Goldschmidt went 1-for-2 with a solo home run in a Grapefruit League win over the Braves on Sunday.
Fresh off signing a five-year, $130 million extension earlier in the weekend, Goldschmidt commemorated the milestone with his third round tripper of spring. The veteran slugger has wasted no time in acclimating to his new St. Louis digs, hitting .280 with three doubles, one triple, three homers and six RBI over Grapefruit League at-bats.
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Batting Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
Since 2016vs Left 1.012 527 84 27 80 19 .315 .436 .576
Since 2016vs Right .901 1530 234 66 218 38 .288 .389 .512
2018vs Left .966 204 30 11 26 0 .291 .402 .564
2018vs Right .904 485 65 22 57 7 .290 .384 .520
2017vs Left 1.013 161 26 10 30 7 .311 .422 .591
2017vs Right .952 503 91 26 90 11 .293 .398 .554
2016vs Left 1.070 162 28 6 24 12 .352 .494 .576
2016vs Right .850 542 78 18 71 20 .282 .386 .465
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
Even Split
OPS on Road
OPS at Home
OPS at Home
Since 2016Home .929 1029 177 47 143 27 .285 .403 .526
Since 2016Away .928 1028 141 46 155 30 .304 .399 .530
2018Home .782 342 40 12 32 1 .238 .363 .420
2018Away 1.053 347 55 21 51 6 .339 .415 .638
2017Home 1.082 336 72 20 61 9 .321 .443 .639
2017Away .852 328 45 16 59 9 .275 .363 .489
2016Home .929 351 65 15 50 17 .298 .405 .524
2016Away .869 353 41 9 45 15 .296 .416 .453
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Stat Review
How does Paul Goldschmidt compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Only Charlie Blackmon, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge outearned Goldschmidt last season. The overall numbers picked up where 2015 left off after the slight power hiccup in 2016. The only thing that has held Goldschmidt back in recent years was the broken hand that ended his season in early August of 2014. As long as Goldschmidt is on the field, the production is virtually a first-round lock, although news that Chase Field will install a humidor this season adds a degree of uncertainty moving forward. To this point, the numbers have been consistent across the board and where other hitters suffer volatility from year to year -- you can practically pencil in a $30 season for Goldschmidt and see what happens in the stolen-base department. Eventually, the bonus speed from the first-base position is going to wane, but as long as he has an aggressive manager that lets him run, Goldschmidt should at least get to double digits for a couple more seasons.
If a .297/.411/.489 slash line with 24 home runs and 95 RBI can be considered a down year, then you know just how good Goldschmidt has been across his six MLB seasons. In 2015, Goldschmidt slashed an absurd .321/.435/.570 with 33 home runs and 110 RBI. Expecting a repeat of those numbers might have been unfair, but that is the standard Goldschmidt has set. On a positive note, he scored 106 runs in 2016, up from 103 in 2015. He also went from 21 stolen bases in 2015 to 32 in 2016. It is his speed and base-stealing acumen that really makes Goldschmidt a special player in fantasy. It is unclear if he will run as much under new manager Torey Lovullo, but considering he upped his success rate from 80.8 percent to 86.5 percent last season, it seems likely that he will have the green light more often than not. Coming off that "down" year, Goldschmidt is no longer a lock to go in the top-five, but he is the clear top player at his position and still has all the tools to finish the year as a top-five player in fantasy.
Simply put, Goldschmidt is the best first baseman in fantasy baseball. Few players combine batting average, power and speed the way Goldy does. In 2015, his batting average was good for third in the National League, his 33 home runs placed fifth in the circuit, the 118 RBI were second in the NL and he chipped in 21 stolen bases (14th in the NL). All of this came as Goldy played in 159 games, a year after he played in just 109 games due to a hand injury. At just 28 years old, Goldschmidt is in the early stages of his peak years, so his production should remain at this level for a while. Owners may find it hard to pass on the likes of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper with a top-two pick, but Goldschmidt deserves consideration there, and he will come off the board in the first five picks in almost all mixed league drafts.
Last season was a mirror image of 2013 for the fantasy stud in terms of his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. That is where the good news ends. Goldschmidt missed 51 games with a broken hand and was unavailable to owners for the final two months of the season. At the point of his injury, his RBI total was just 55 percent of what it was in 2013 because the team around him was rather awful. With a full season, he would have likely matched his stolen base total from 2013 and swiped at least 10 bases for a third straight season, as a first baseman. Even for a young player, Goldschmidt’s skills are stable. His strikeout rate is slightly below league average, but he offsets that with a well-above-league-average walk rate. He doesn’t get himself into trouble chasing pitches and in a time where offense is tapering off, this guy flat out rakes. Goldschmidt is first-round material again in 2015.
The brightest star in Arizona's lineup, Goldschmidt had an MVP-worthy year, hitting 36 home runs and driving in 125 runs, while slugging .551. It was the kind of breakout year the organization knew he was capable of, and MVP voters took note, as he finished second to Andrew McCutchen for the honors during the offseason. He's the biggest constant in the batting order, and 2014 figures to be another outstanding campaign for the 26-year-old stud, as his contributions as a five-category player will make him the first player off the board at his position in many leagues this spring.
Goldschmidt entered the season as the D-Backs' uncontested starter at first base, spending most of the year hitting from the middle third of manager Kirk Gibson's lineup. Not surprisingly, Goldschmidt provided steady power, but he also delivered an unexpected 18-for-21 mark on the basepaths. After struggling against lefties in his first exposure to big league pitching in 2011, Goldschmidt hit .343/.423/.645 against them last season. He also improved his overall contact rate (from 70.1 percent to 77.9) while drawing a steady supply of free passes (10.2 percent walk rate). Goldschmidt had better numbers on the road (.315/.377/.516) than at Chase Field (.253/.339/.461) and his ISO (.204) is one indication that there's likely more than 20-homer power here.
Goldschmidt proved that his impressive power display in 2010 wasn't simply the byproduct of the hitter-friendly parks of the California League, parlaying a .306/.435/.626 line with Double-A Mobile into the opportunity to serve as the D-Backs everyday first baseman down the stretch and in the playoffs. As expected, Goldschmidt's strikeout rate jumped upon his promotion to the big leagues, but he continued to display plus power while hitting a couple of clutch homers in the team's postseason push before delivering a 7-for-16 mark with a pair of homers in the Divisional Series against the Brewers. While he may not be a .300 hitter in the big leagues, Goldschmidt should be an immediate 30-homer threat with an opportunity to lock down a spot near the middle of the D-Backs' lineup.
More Fantasy News
Signing extension
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
March 21, 2019
Goldschmidt and the Cardinals are expected to agree on a contract extension Thursday worth approximately $130 million over five years, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
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Hits first homer of spring
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
March 18, 2019
Goldschmidt went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run Monday against the Phillies.
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Thriving in spring
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
March 6, 2019
Goldschmidt, who went 1-for-2 with a walk in Tuesday's 2-1 Grapefruit League loss to the Phillies, is hitting .364 over his first 15 spring plate appearances.
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Headed to St. Louis
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
December 5, 2018
The Diamondbacks traded Goldschmidt to the Cardinals on Wednesday in exchange for Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andrew Young and a 2019 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick, Jon Heyman of reports.
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Club option exercised for 2019
1BArizona Diamondbacks
October 29, 2018
The Diamondbacks exercised Goldschmidt's $14.5 million option for 2019, Steve Gilbert of reports.
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