Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
31-Year-Old First Baseman1B
St. Louis Cardinals
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The impact of the humidor was felt in Arizona, but it did not affect Goldschmidt’s power numbers. His 2017 and 2018 seasons were essentially identical; he had 73 extra-base hits in 2017, and repeated that number in 2018. He lost three homers that became doubles and triples. The problem for him was that the talent around him fell off so his run-producing opportunities were impacted. From 2015 to 2017, Goldschmidt had an average of 431 runners on base each season when he was at the plate. In 2018, that number dropped to 386. He also ran far less far frequently, continuing a trend from 2017. Goldschmidt’s year-over-year skills are stable and safe, and the counting numbers should improve following a December trade to the Cardinals. We have to wonder if the days of double-digit steals are gone for good, but this is still a skill set worthy of an early selection -- just probably not a first-round pick anymore. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a five-year, $32 million contract with the Diamondbacks in March of 2013. Diamondbacks exercised $14.5 million team option for 2019 in October of 2018. Traded to the Cardinals in December of 2018.
Headed to St. Louis
1BSt. Louis Cardinals
December 5, 2018
The Diamondbacks traded Goldschmidt to the Cardinals on Wednesday in exchange for Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andrew Young and a 2019 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick, Jon Heyman of FancredSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Talks between the two clubs quickly escalated Wednesday afternoon, and a deal has been struck to send the perennial All-Star to St. Louis. Goldschmidt will immediately provide a strong middle-of-the-order bat to the Cardinals after slashing .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs and 83 RBI last season, which is all the more impressive considering he was barely above the Mendoza Line at the end of May.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+12%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+7%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+6%
OPS vs LHP
2016
 
 
+26%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left 1.012 527 84 27 80 19 .315 .436 .576
Since 2016vs Right .901 1530 234 66 218 38 .288 .389 .512
2018vs Left .966 204 30 11 26 0 .291 .402 .564
2018vs Right .904 485 65 22 57 7 .290 .384 .520
2017vs Left 1.013 161 26 10 30 7 .311 .422 .591
2017vs Right .952 503 91 26 90 11 .293 .398 .554
2016vs Left 1.070 162 28 6 24 12 .352 .494 .576
2016vs Right .850 542 78 18 71 20 .282 .386 .465
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
Even Split
2018
 
 
+35%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+27%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+7%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .929 1029 177 47 143 27 .285 .403 .526
Since 2016Away .928 1028 141 46 155 30 .304 .399 .530
2018Home .782 342 40 12 32 1 .238 .363 .420
2018Away 1.053 347 55 21 51 6 .339 .415 .638
2017Home 1.082 336 72 20 61 9 .321 .443 .639
2017Away .852 328 45 16 59 9 .275 .363 .489
2016Home .929 351 65 15 50 17 .298 .405 .524
2016Away .869 353 41 9 45 15 .296 .416 .453
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Stat Review
How does Paul Goldschmidt compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.52
 
BB Rate
13.1%
 
K Rate
25.1%
 
BABIP
.359
 
ISO
.243
 
AVG
.290
 
OBP
.389
 
SLG
.533
 
OPS
.922
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Paul Goldschmidt
The Z Files: Early Market Disagreements
November 23rd
Todd Zola takes another look at five players he's more bullish on than the market right now, and thinks a better season from the Arizona offense could help Paul Goldschmidt regain some of his luster.
The Z Files: Historical Top 200
November 10th
Todd Zola takes a look at the end-of-season top-200 performers over the last five years and thinks Charlie Blackmon's being discounted too heavily in early drafts given his track record.
The Z Files: Early Top 15 Hitters
October 25th
Todd Zola lists his initial top 15 fantasy hitters heading into 2019, and warns against jumping the gun on assuming a big regression from Jose Ramirez.
The Z Files: Looking Back at 2018 Park Factors
October 11th
Todd Zola runs park factors from the recently concluded campaign and takes a look at the impact the Chase Field humidor had on sluggers like Paul Goldschmidt.
The Z Files: Mad About Max
October 4th
Todd Zola looks at his strategy for drafting an ace heading into the first NFBC league of the 2019 season, and wonders how early might be too early for Max Scherzer.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Only Charlie Blackmon, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge outearned Goldschmidt last season. The overall numbers picked up where 2015 left off after the slight power hiccup in 2016. The only thing that has held Goldschmidt back in recent years was the broken hand that ended his season in early August of 2014. As long as Goldschmidt is on the field, the production is virtually a first-round lock, although news that Chase Field will install a humidor this season adds a degree of uncertainty moving forward. To this point, the numbers have been consistent across the board and where other hitters suffer volatility from year to year -- you can practically pencil in a $30 season for Goldschmidt and see what happens in the stolen-base department. Eventually, the bonus speed from the first-base position is going to wane, but as long as he has an aggressive manager that lets him run, Goldschmidt should at least get to double digits for a couple more seasons.
If a .297/.411/.489 slash line with 24 home runs and 95 RBI can be considered a down year, then you know just how good Goldschmidt has been across his six MLB seasons. In 2015, Goldschmidt slashed an absurd .321/.435/.570 with 33 home runs and 110 RBI. Expecting a repeat of those numbers might have been unfair, but that is the standard Goldschmidt has set. On a positive note, he scored 106 runs in 2016, up from 103 in 2015. He also went from 21 stolen bases in 2015 to 32 in 2016. It is his speed and base-stealing acumen that really makes Goldschmidt a special player in fantasy. It is unclear if he will run as much under new manager Torey Lovullo, but considering he upped his success rate from 80.8 percent to 86.5 percent last season, it seems likely that he will have the green light more often than not. Coming off that "down" year, Goldschmidt is no longer a lock to go in the top-five, but he is the clear top player at his position and still has all the tools to finish the year as a top-five player in fantasy.
Simply put, Goldschmidt is the best first baseman in fantasy baseball. Few players combine batting average, power and speed the way Goldy does. In 2015, his batting average was good for third in the National League, his 33 home runs placed fifth in the circuit, the 118 RBI were second in the NL and he chipped in 21 stolen bases (14th in the NL). All of this came as Goldy played in 159 games, a year after he played in just 109 games due to a hand injury. At just 28 years old, Goldschmidt is in the early stages of his peak years, so his production should remain at this level for a while. Owners may find it hard to pass on the likes of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper with a top-two pick, but Goldschmidt deserves consideration there, and he will come off the board in the first five picks in almost all mixed league drafts.
Last season was a mirror image of 2013 for the fantasy stud in terms of his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. That is where the good news ends. Goldschmidt missed 51 games with a broken hand and was unavailable to owners for the final two months of the season. At the point of his injury, his RBI total was just 55 percent of what it was in 2013 because the team around him was rather awful. With a full season, he would have likely matched his stolen base total from 2013 and swiped at least 10 bases for a third straight season, as a first baseman. Even for a young player, Goldschmidt’s skills are stable. His strikeout rate is slightly below league average, but he offsets that with a well-above-league-average walk rate. He doesn’t get himself into trouble chasing pitches and in a time where offense is tapering off, this guy flat out rakes. Goldschmidt is first-round material again in 2015.
The brightest star in Arizona's lineup, Goldschmidt had an MVP-worthy year, hitting 36 home runs and driving in 125 runs, while slugging .551. It was the kind of breakout year the organization knew he was capable of, and MVP voters took note, as he finished second to Andrew McCutchen for the honors during the offseason. He's the biggest constant in the batting order, and 2014 figures to be another outstanding campaign for the 26-year-old stud, as his contributions as a five-category player will make him the first player off the board at his position in many leagues this spring.
Goldschmidt entered the season as the D-Backs' uncontested starter at first base, spending most of the year hitting from the middle third of manager Kirk Gibson's lineup. Not surprisingly, Goldschmidt provided steady power, but he also delivered an unexpected 18-for-21 mark on the basepaths. After struggling against lefties in his first exposure to big league pitching in 2011, Goldschmidt hit .343/.423/.645 against them last season. He also improved his overall contact rate (from 70.1 percent to 77.9) while drawing a steady supply of free passes (10.2 percent walk rate). Goldschmidt had better numbers on the road (.315/.377/.516) than at Chase Field (.253/.339/.461) and his ISO (.204) is one indication that there's likely more than 20-homer power here.
Goldschmidt proved that his impressive power display in 2010 wasn't simply the byproduct of the hitter-friendly parks of the California League, parlaying a .306/.435/.626 line with Double-A Mobile into the opportunity to serve as the D-Backs everyday first baseman down the stretch and in the playoffs. As expected, Goldschmidt's strikeout rate jumped upon his promotion to the big leagues, but he continued to display plus power while hitting a couple of clutch homers in the team's postseason push before delivering a 7-for-16 mark with a pair of homers in the Divisional Series against the Brewers. While he may not be a .300 hitter in the big leagues, Goldschmidt should be an immediate 30-homer threat with an opportunity to lock down a spot near the middle of the D-Backs' lineup.
More Fantasy News
Club option exercised for 2019
1BArizona Diamondbacks
October 29, 2018
The Diamondbacks exercised Goldschmidt's $14.5 million option for 2019, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hits bench Saturday
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 29, 2018
Goldschmidt is not in the lineup Saturday against San Diego.
ANALYSIS
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Nabs seventh stolen base
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 29, 2018
Goldschmidt went 1-for-6 with a walk and a stolen base Friday in the Diamondbacks' 3-2 loss to the Padres in 15 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Takes seat Monday
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 24, 2018
Goldschmidt is not in the lineup Monday against the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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Not in Wednesday's lineup
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 19, 2018
Goldschmidt is out of the lineup against the Cubs on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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