All four division series get underway Saturday, which means FanDuel's main slate may be the last time we see a four-game slate this postseason. As of Friday evening, we believe we've got seven of eight starters confirmed with only Chicago unsettled. Given the way they yanked their starters early in the wild-card round, whomever is on the bump likely wouldn't be a viable option.
Similar to the wild-card round, we've got two series here that are division matchups, so there's going to be BvP experience. The Mariners (-220) are massive favorites for a playoff game, and we don't have paltry 6.5 run totals. Yankees-Blue Jays is sitting around 8.0, and everything else has at least a seven-run expectacy. Three of the four games have retractable roofs, so rain obviously isn't a concern, but be sure to check if there's any potential wind impact.
From a strategy perspective, I don't hate targeting offenses that played during the week and pitchers against the top seeds that have been idle.
Pitching
Shohei Ohtani, LAD at PHI ($8,800): If money is no object, I'm absolutely paying for George Kirby ($10,000), the slate's highest-priced option. Detroit slumped too badly down the stretch and likely won't score 3-plus runs. But if we need some savings and upside, why not Ohtani? He's averaged 36.8 FanDuel points across his last four (a 4.2x return) and gets a Phillies offense that hasn't seen live pitching in a week. One of those outings came against Philadelphia, which yielded five strikeouts across five hitless innings. We know Citizens Bank Park will be rocking, and I can't think of a better option to shut that place up for five frames.
Luis Gil, NYY at TOR ($7,900): There are plenty of red flags here; Gil has a 3.32 ERA but 5.65 xFIP, and fans just 6.5 per nine against a massive 5.2 walks per nine. With New York not using its pen much in Game 3 and having Friday off, the hook here will be short. But he's also limited the Blue Jays to a .188 average (12-for-64) with a .631 OPS despite 20 walks. He earned 28 FDP against them on September 6, and while I question his innings potential, he's a preferred paydown option that can limit damage and pitch out of trouble.
Top Targets
I'm building around the Yankees first, I think! Kevin Gausman faced them four times in season, had two solid outings, one middling and one shellacking. There's some solid BvP numbers to target across multiple pricing tiers. Aaron Judge ($4,600) is 17-for-48 (.354) with six homers and 11 walks. Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500) is 10-for-30 (.333) with four homers.
Teoscar Hernandez ($3,500) hit a medial .250 with a .322 wOBA against lefties in season. But he had four hits, three for extra bases and six RBI in the last round, has an eight-game hitting streak and is 5-for-12 (.417) off Cristopher Sanchez with two homers.
Bargain Bats
I mentioned in Tuesday's column that with these playoff slates, it's sometimes okay to target a starter; he goes 1-for-3 with a single, and you take that as a win. Pete Crow-Armstrong ($3,200) is the opposite of that. He had three hits Thursday, has two homers and eight hits in his last seven. Paired with a 5-for-11 (.455) and a homer off Freddy Peralta, and he's an upside play for a fair price.
Back to the Gausman BvP numbers. Paul Goldschmidt ($2,600) is 10-for-22 (.455) with a 1.192 OPS, and Amed Rosario ($2,400) is 4-for-14 (.286) with two homers and a 1.048 OPS.
Stack to Consider
Mariners vs. Troy Melton (Tigers): Cal Raleigh ($4,500), Julio Rodriguez ($3,800), Randy Arozarena ($3,200)
Melton was actually pretty decent as a starter, but he couldn't get anyone out in Cleveland mid-week, allowing three hits and four earned runs in 0.1 relief innings. Perhaps the moment(s) are too big for him. He's highly unlikely to work bulk innings, as Detroit has Tarik Skubal lined up for Game 2 and will empty their bullpen freely. Which makes this a near must-win for Seattle, so I'll target the top of their order to simply give the most chances at popping. It's expensive, and forces you into using second tier Yankees if you're buying the BvP numbers, but it seems a viable strategy. Raleigh gives us some power upside, Rodriguez some power/speed potential, and Arozarena also has some pop while closing the year with eight hits in his final five.
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
