Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
31-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Arizona Diamondbacks
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Only Charlie Blackmon, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge outearned Goldschmidt last season. The overall numbers picked up where 2015 left off after the slight power hiccup in 2016. The only thing that has held Goldschmidt back in recent years was the broken hand that ended his season in early August of 2014. As long as Goldschmidt is on the field, the production is virtually a first-round lock, although news that Chase Field will install a humidor this season adds a degree of uncertainty moving forward. To this point, the numbers have been consistent across the board and where other hitters suffer volatility from year to year -- you can practically pencil in a $30 season for Goldschmidt and see what happens in the stolen-base department. Eventually, the bonus speed from the first-base position is going to wane, but as long as he has an aggressive manager that lets him run, Goldschmidt should at least get to double digits for a couple more seasons. Read Past Outlooks
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$Goldschmidt agreed to a five-year, $32 million contract with the Diamondback in March of 2013.
Bags 32nd double
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 13, 2018
Goldschmidt went 2-for-4 with a double, stolen base and a run in Wednesday's 5-4 loss to the Rockies.
Goldschmidt reached base for the 48th consecutive road game, extending the franchise record he already held. Though the Diamondbacks have seen their playoff hopes take a major hit after dropping four of their last five games, Goldschmidt has been even more excellent than usual in September, hitting .395/.500/.711 with as many walks (eight) as strikeouts. While Goldschmidt is on pace to finish with his typically stellar marks in the batting average and power-production categories, his involvement on the basepaths has taken a hit in his age-30 campaign. The stolen base he notched Wednesday was just his sixth of the season and first in nearly a month.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
Since 2016vs Left 1.035 515 83 27 80 19 .321 .445 .590
Since 2016vs Right .908 1506 234 66 218 37 .290 .391 .517
2018vs Left 1.022 192 29 11 26 0 .306 .422 .600
2018vs Right .927 461 65 22 57 6 .296 .390 .536
2017vs Left 1.013 161 26 10 30 7 .311 .422 .591
2017vs Right .952 503 91 26 90 11 .293 .398 .554
2016vs Left 1.070 162 28 6 24 12 .352 .494 .576
2016vs Right .850 542 78 18 71 20 .282 .386 .465
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
OPS at Home
OPS on Road
OPS at Home
OPS at Home
Since 2016Home .947 1003 176 47 143 27 .290 .410 .537
Since 2016Away .934 1014 140 46 155 29 .305 .400 .534
2018Home .824 316 39 12 32 1 .249 .380 .444
2018Away 1.077 333 54 21 51 5 .344 .420 .656
2017Home 1.082 336 72 20 61 9 .321 .443 .639
2017Away .852 328 45 16 59 9 .275 .363 .489
2016Home .929 351 65 15 50 17 .298 .405 .524
2016Away .869 353 41 9 45 15 .296 .416 .453
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Stat Review
How does Paul Goldschmidt compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
If a .297/.411/.489 slash line with 24 home runs and 95 RBI can be considered a down year, then you know just how good Goldschmidt has been across his six MLB seasons. In 2015, Goldschmidt slashed an absurd .321/.435/.570 with 33 home runs and 110 RBI. Expecting a repeat of those numbers might have been unfair, but that is the standard Goldschmidt has set. On a positive note, he scored 106 runs in 2016, up from 103 in 2015. He also went from 21 stolen bases in 2015 to 32 in 2016. It is his speed and base-stealing acumen that really makes Goldschmidt a special player in fantasy. It is unclear if he will run as much under new manager Torey Lovullo, but considering he upped his success rate from 80.8 percent to 86.5 percent last season, it seems likely that he will have the green light more often than not. Coming off that "down" year, Goldschmidt is no longer a lock to go in the top-five, but he is the clear top player at his position and still has all the tools to finish the year as a top-five player in fantasy.
Simply put, Goldschmidt is the best first baseman in fantasy baseball. Few players combine batting average, power and speed the way Goldy does. In 2015, his batting average was good for third in the National League, his 33 home runs placed fifth in the circuit, the 118 RBI were second in the NL and he chipped in 21 stolen bases (14th in the NL). All of this came as Goldy played in 159 games, a year after he played in just 109 games due to a hand injury. At just 28 years old, Goldschmidt is in the early stages of his peak years, so his production should remain at this level for a while. Owners may find it hard to pass on the likes of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper with a top-two pick, but Goldschmidt deserves consideration there, and he will come off the board in the first five picks in almost all mixed league drafts.
Last season was a mirror image of 2013 for the fantasy stud in terms of his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. That is where the good news ends. Goldschmidt missed 51 games with a broken hand and was unavailable to owners for the final two months of the season. At the point of his injury, his RBI total was just 55 percent of what it was in 2013 because the team around him was rather awful. With a full season, he would have likely matched his stolen base total from 2013 and swiped at least 10 bases for a third straight season, as a first baseman. Even for a young player, Goldschmidt’s skills are stable. His strikeout rate is slightly below league average, but he offsets that with a well-above-league-average walk rate. He doesn’t get himself into trouble chasing pitches and in a time where offense is tapering off, this guy flat out rakes. Goldschmidt is first-round material again in 2015.
The brightest star in Arizona's lineup, Goldschmidt had an MVP-worthy year, hitting 36 home runs and driving in 125 runs, while slugging .551. It was the kind of breakout year the organization knew he was capable of, and MVP voters took note, as he finished second to Andrew McCutchen for the honors during the offseason. He's the biggest constant in the batting order, and 2014 figures to be another outstanding campaign for the 26-year-old stud, as his contributions as a five-category player will make him the first player off the board at his position in many leagues this spring.
Goldschmidt entered the season as the D-Backs' uncontested starter at first base, spending most of the year hitting from the middle third of manager Kirk Gibson's lineup. Not surprisingly, Goldschmidt provided steady power, but he also delivered an unexpected 18-for-21 mark on the basepaths. After struggling against lefties in his first exposure to big league pitching in 2011, Goldschmidt hit .343/.423/.645 against them last season. He also improved his overall contact rate (from 70.1 percent to 77.9) while drawing a steady supply of free passes (10.2 percent walk rate). Goldschmidt had better numbers on the road (.315/.377/.516) than at Chase Field (.253/.339/.461) and his ISO (.204) is one indication that there's likely more than 20-homer power here.
Goldschmidt proved that his impressive power display in 2010 wasn't simply the byproduct of the hitter-friendly parks of the California League, parlaying a .306/.435/.626 line with Double-A Mobile into the opportunity to serve as the D-Backs everyday first baseman down the stretch and in the playoffs. As expected, Goldschmidt's strikeout rate jumped upon his promotion to the big leagues, but he continued to display plus power while hitting a couple of clutch homers in the team's postseason push before delivering a 7-for-16 mark with a pair of homers in the Divisional Series against the Brewers. While he may not be a .300 hitter in the big leagues, Goldschmidt should be an immediate 30-homer threat with an opportunity to lock down a spot near the middle of the D-Backs' lineup.
More Fantasy News
Reaches base five times
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 7, 2018
Goldschmidt went 2-for-2 with a home run, a second run scored and three walks in Friday's victory over the Braves.
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Goes deep
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 6, 2018
Goldschmidt went 3-for-5 with a double, solo home run, and three runs scored Thursday against the Braves.
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Hits 31st homer
1BArizona Diamondbacks
September 1, 2018
Goldschmidt went 2-for-4 with his 31st home run of the season, a double and two RBI in a 3-2 loss to the Dodgers on Friday.
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Cranks 30th homer
1BArizona Diamondbacks
August 26, 2018
Goldschmidt went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run to help Arizona to a 5-2 victory over Seattle on Sunday.
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Launches homer No. 29
1BArizona Diamondbacks
August 23, 2018
Goldschmidt went 3-for-3 with a two-run homer, a double and a walk in Wednesday's win over the Angels.
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