Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Keuchel was able to stay healthy and make a career-high 34 starts in 2018, but the skills took a hit. While the lefty was able to keep the walks in check, he lost roughly four percentage points from his K-rate (17.5%), and his groundball rate fell to 53.7% -- still well above average, but a far cry from the 66.8% mark he had in 2017. He was able to cut back on the homers despite that dip in groundball rate, but it's tough to bank on that trend continuing. As he enters his age-31 season and moves on from the Astros in free agency, Keuchel looks like he still has something in the tank, but the decline in the quality of his sinker, slider and changeup point to this being the beginning of the downward slope. This is a former AL Cy Young winner who has posted sub-3.00 ERAs in three of the past five seasons, but at this stage a low-4.00s ERA may be a more realistic expectation. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a one-year, $13 million contract with the Braves in June of 2019.
Lined up for Friday debut
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
June 20, 2019
Keuchel will be added to the Braves' active roster and start Friday's game against the Nationals, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Atlanta may not officially activate Keuchel until Friday, but the team already cleared a spot for him on the 25-man roster by optioning reliever Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett following Wednesday's win over the Mets. Keuchel covered 106 pitches in his most recent rehab outing at Double-A Mississippi last weekend, so it's not expected that he'll face any significant workload restrictions in his first outing with the Braves.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2019
No Stats
2018
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-39%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .224 279 73 12 59 10 0 6
Since 2017vs Right .250 1179 205 93 268 56 1 27
2019vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Left .281 162 37 7 43 8 0 3
2018vs Right .259 712 116 51 168 40 1 15
2017vs Left .145 117 36 5 16 2 0 3
2017vs Right .236 467 89 42 100 16 0 12
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-10%
ERA at Home
2019
No Stats
2018
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.20 1.14 168.2 10 9 0 6.8 2.7 0.8
Since 2017Away 3.57 1.32 181.2 16 7 0 7.4 2.7 0.9
2019Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Home 3.90 1.29 97.0 4 6 0 6.4 2.7 1.0
2018Away 3.59 1.34 107.2 8 5 0 7.0 2.4 0.6
2017Home 2.26 0.95 71.2 6 3 0 7.4 2.6 0.5
2017Away 3.53 1.28 74.0 8 2 0 8.0 3.2 1.3
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dallas Keuchel
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Busy Week for Double Dippers
5 days ago
Todd Zola's weekly pitcher rankings feature a familiar face and the return of an old friend to the top in the busiest week of the season for two-start options.
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7 days ago
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7 days ago
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Yahoo DFS Baseball: Monday Picks
10 days ago
Mike Barner delivers his recommendations for Yahoo’s Monday slate.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
At least according to FIP (3.87 in 2016, 3.79 in 2017), Keuchel wasn’t a dramatically different pitcher last season, but he noticed far better results than the year prior. For the third time in four seasons, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while adding to his value with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 wins. The impact of those numbers was somewhat dampened by Keuchel missing most of June and July while recovering from a neck issue, and after a brilliant first half, he was far less productive after the break, managing only a 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 70 frames. With a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, Keuchel will never be the strikeout-per-inning pitcher that typifies most aces, but his ability to generate ample groundballs and avoid damage via the long ball are skills that have routinely helped him outperform his peripherals. Moreover, with a power-packed offense backing him again, Keuchel’s path to wins will be more favorable than most other starters of his caliber.
The league adjusted to the 2015 Cy Young winner in a big way (4.80 ERA, 2.8 K/BB first half) and while he started to adjust back in the second half (3.94 ERA, 3.6 K/BB), he then lost the final month of the season to a shoulder injury. The major change was that the opposition started swinging less often at Keuchel's pitches out of the zone, which forced him back into the zone in hitter-friendly or even counts. Additionally, his OPS-against on plate appearances ending out of the zone skyrocketed from a league-best .339 in 2015 to .530 last year -- or slightly better than the .579 average (min. 150 IP). Each one of his pitches performed worse, too, but especially his "hard" stuff. The fastball and cutter combined for an .837 OPS, up from .669 in 2015. He was cleared to resume throwing this offseason and should enter camp healthy. Keuchel is definitely far from his 2015 peak, but he's better than his 2016 bottom line. Don't pay for more than high-3.00s ERA.
Keuchel proved just how dominant of a pitcher he can be last season, especially when inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. The AL Cy Young Award finalist was a perfect 15-0 at home en route a 20-8 record overall, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216:51 K:BB ratio over a career-high 232 innings. His groundball rate (2.29 GO/AO) was second-best in the majors and he once again led all pitchers in assists (53) to win the AL Gold Glove award for the second consecutive year. Keuchel has clearly established himself as a reliable fantasy ace who is worth drafting among the top-10 starters in all formats.
After two straight seasons with an ERA above five, Keuchel came out of nowhere to establish himself as a premier pitcher in 2014. The left-hander reached 200 innings exactly, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and leading the AL with five complete games. His groundball rate (2.83 GO/AO) was the best in the majors by far and he led all pitchers in total chances (66) and assists (47) to win the AL Gold Glove award. Keuchel's 3.21 FIP indicates his success was no fluke, and his remarkable season puts him in line to start Opening Day for the Astros in 2015.
Keuchel didn't make the Astros' roster out of camp, but he saw significant time in the majors last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness of other pitchers. In 153.2 innings (22 starts), the 26-year-old lefty compiled a 6-10 record with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but Keuchel significantly improved his strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) over the year prior. The extreme groundballer (2.07 GO/AO) will have to battle for a spot in the starting rotation out of camp, but will likely make the roster in some capacity, be it as a starter or long reliever.
Keuchel finished 2012 with a 3-8 record and a brutal 5.27 ERA. He is not going to blow anyone away, and without an out pitch to speak of (last year he struck out just 4.0 K/9), his pitch-to-contact approach has to keep the ball on the ground to be effective. The Astros would like to see him get a little bigger and stronger, and hope he will be able to establish his sinker more by taking a few miles-per-hour off of it to allow for more movement. He will have a lot to prove this spring, but has likely shown enough to break camp with the team.
More Fantasy News
Manager confirms likely debut date
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
June 18, 2019
Manager Brian Snitker said he's hopeful Keuchel will be added to the Braves' roster to start Friday's game against the Nationals, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Expected to start Friday
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
June 17, 2019
Keuchel is expected to start Friday against the Nationals, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Tosses seven innings at Double-A
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
June 16, 2019
Keuchel allowed three earned runs on 11 hits across seven innings in a tune-up start Saturday at Double-A Mississippi.
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Next start slated for Saturday
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
June 11, 2019
Keuchel will make his next start for Double-A Mississippi on Saturday, 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates in Low-A tuneup
PAtlanta Braves  AAA
June 11, 2019
Keuchel allowed a hit and a walk over seven scoreless innings while striking out nine in his first rehab start with Low-A Rome on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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