Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel
30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2018 Fantasy Outlook
At least according to FIP (3.87 in 2016, 3.79 in 2017), Keuchel wasn’t a dramatically different pitcher last season, but he noticed far better results than the year prior. For the third time in four seasons, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while adding to his value with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 wins. The impact of those numbers was somewhat dampened by Keuchel missing most of June and July while recovering from a neck issue, and after a brilliant first half, he was far less productive after the break, managing only a 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 70 frames. With a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, Keuchel will never be the strikeout-per-inning pitcher that typifies most aces, but his ability to generate ample groundballs and avoid damage via the long ball are skills that have routinely helped him outperform his peripherals. Moreover, with a power-packed offense backing him again, Keuchel’s path to wins will be more favorable than most other starters of his caliber. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Agreed to a one-year, $13.2 million deal with the Astros in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Tabbed as Game 3 starter
PHouston Astros
October 14, 2018
Keuchel will start Game 3 of the ALCS against the Red Sox, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
This wasn't a matter of if, but rather a matter of when. Keuchel will now line up for the first game of the series taking place in Houston, though it's currently unclear who will take the ball for Boston. As things stand now, this would potentially line up the southpaw for a Game 7 assignment should the series last that long.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .229 426 103 18 92 15 1 8
Since 2016vs Right .255 1733 319 135 403 86 6 45
2018vs Left .281 162 37 7 43 8 0 3
2018vs Right .259 712 116 51 168 40 1 15
2017vs Left .145 117 36 5 16 2 0 3
2017vs Right .236 467 89 42 100 16 0 12
2016vs Left .237 147 30 6 33 5 1 2
2016vs Right .265 554 114 42 135 30 5 18
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
Since 2016Home 3.33 1.13 248.2 14 14 0 7.1 2.4 0.8
Since 2016Away 4.17 1.36 269.2 21 14 0 7.6 2.9 1.1
2018Home 3.90 1.29 97.0 4 6 0 6.4 2.7 1.0
2018Away 3.59 1.34 107.2 8 5 0 7.0 2.4 0.6
2017Home 2.26 0.95 71.2 6 3 0 7.4 2.6 0.5
2017Away 3.53 1.28 74.0 8 2 0 8.0 3.2 1.3
2016Home 3.60 1.11 80.0 4 5 0 7.5 1.8 0.7
2016Away 5.42 1.44 88.0 5 7 0 7.9 3.3 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Dallas Keuchel compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
89.3 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
The league adjusted to the 2015 Cy Young winner in a big way (4.80 ERA, 2.8 K/BB first half) and while he started to adjust back in the second half (3.94 ERA, 3.6 K/BB), he then lost the final month of the season to a shoulder injury. The major change was that the opposition started swinging less often at Keuchel's pitches out of the zone, which forced him back into the zone in hitter-friendly or even counts. Additionally, his OPS-against on plate appearances ending out of the zone skyrocketed from a league-best .339 in 2015 to .530 last year -- or slightly better than the .579 average (min. 150 IP). Each one of his pitches performed worse, too, but especially his "hard" stuff. The fastball and cutter combined for an .837 OPS, up from .669 in 2015. He was cleared to resume throwing this offseason and should enter camp healthy. Keuchel is definitely far from his 2015 peak, but he's better than his 2016 bottom line. Don't pay for more than high-3.00s ERA.
Keuchel proved just how dominant of a pitcher he can be last season, especially when inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. The AL Cy Young Award finalist was a perfect 15-0 at home en route a 20-8 record overall, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216:51 K:BB ratio over a career-high 232 innings. His groundball rate (2.29 GO/AO) was second-best in the majors and he once again led all pitchers in assists (53) to win the AL Gold Glove award for the second consecutive year. Keuchel has clearly established himself as a reliable fantasy ace who is worth drafting among the top-10 starters in all formats.
After two straight seasons with an ERA above five, Keuchel came out of nowhere to establish himself as a premier pitcher in 2014. The left-hander reached 200 innings exactly, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and leading the AL with five complete games. His groundball rate (2.83 GO/AO) was the best in the majors by far and he led all pitchers in total chances (66) and assists (47) to win the AL Gold Glove award. Keuchel's 3.21 FIP indicates his success was no fluke, and his remarkable season puts him in line to start Opening Day for the Astros in 2015.
Keuchel didn't make the Astros' roster out of camp, but he saw significant time in the majors last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness of other pitchers. In 153.2 innings (22 starts), the 26-year-old lefty compiled a 6-10 record with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but Keuchel significantly improved his strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) over the year prior. The extreme groundballer (2.07 GO/AO) will have to battle for a spot in the starting rotation out of camp, but will likely make the roster in some capacity, be it as a starter or long reliever.
Keuchel finished 2012 with a 3-8 record and a brutal 5.27 ERA. He is not going to blow anyone away, and without an out pitch to speak of (last year he struck out just 4.0 K/9), his pitch-to-contact approach has to keep the ball on the ground to be effective. The Astros would like to see him get a little bigger and stronger, and hope he will be able to establish his sinker more by taking a few miles-per-hour off of it to allow for more movement. He will have a lot to prove this spring, but has likely shown enough to break camp with the team.
More Fantasy News
Goes five innings in no-decision
PHouston Astros
October 8, 2018
Keuchel started Game 3 of the ALDS in Monday's series-clinching win over the Indians but didn't factor into the decision. He went five innings and gave up two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out two.
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Throws three innings as planned
PHouston Astros
September 30, 2018
Keuchel allowed one run on five hits and one walk while striking out two in a 5-2 win over Baltimore in the nightcap of Saturday's doubleheader.
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Will throw three innings
PHouston Astros
September 29, 2018
Keuchel's start will be limited to three innings during Game 2 of Saturday's doubleheader against the Orioles, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports.
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Starting second game Saturday
PHouston Astros
September 28, 2018
Keuchel will pitch the second game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Orioles, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
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Expected to be limited Saturday
PHouston Astros
September 26, 2018
Keuchel is only expected to pitch 2-to-4 innings during his final start of the regular season against the Orioles on Saturday, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports.
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