Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel
30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2018 Fantasy Outlook
At least according to FIP (3.87 in 2016, 3.79 in 2017), Keuchel wasn’t a dramatically different pitcher last season, but he noticed far better results than the year prior. For the third time in four seasons, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while adding to his value with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 wins. The impact of those numbers was somewhat dampened by Keuchel missing most of June and July while recovering from a neck issue, and after a brilliant first half, he was far less productive after the break, managing only a 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 70 frames. With a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, Keuchel will never be the strikeout-per-inning pitcher that typifies most aces, but his ability to generate ample groundballs and avoid damage via the long ball are skills that have routinely helped him outperform his peripherals. Moreover, with a power-packed offense backing him again, Keuchel’s path to wins will be more favorable than most other starters of his caliber. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Agreed to a one-year, $13.2 million deal with the Astros in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Rocked by M's
PHouston Astros
September 19, 2018
Keuchel (11-11) took the loss Wednesday, coughing up five runs on six hits and two walks over five innings while striking out three as the Astros were routed 9-0 by the Mariners.
ANALYSIS
It marked the third time in his last 10 outings that the southpaw was tagged for five runs, but Keuchel's provided Houston with a quality start in the other seven. Barring any last-minute rotation shuffles to prepare for the playoffs, he's lined up for a potentially productive two-start week to close out the regular season, heading to Toronto on Tuesday before wrapping up the campaign in Baltimore on Sunday.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-39%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .225 419 103 18 89 14 1 8
Since 2016vs Right .253 1681 309 129 388 83 6 44
2018vs Left .274 155 37 7 40 7 0 3
2018vs Right .254 660 106 45 153 37 1 14
2017vs Left .145 117 36 5 16 2 0 3
2017vs Right .236 467 89 42 100 16 0 12
2016vs Left .237 147 30 6 33 5 1 2
2016vs Right .265 554 114 42 135 30 5 18
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-23%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.21 1.12 243.2 14 13 0 7.1 2.4 0.8
Since 2016Away 4.16 1.34 261.2 20 14 0 7.6 2.9 1.1
2018Home 3.62 1.27 92.0 4 5 0 6.5 2.6 1.1
2018Away 3.52 1.28 99.2 7 5 0 7.0 2.3 0.5
2017Home 2.26 0.95 71.2 6 3 0 7.4 2.6 0.5
2017Away 3.53 1.28 74.0 8 2 0 8.0 3.2 1.3
2016Home 3.60 1.11 80.0 4 5 0 7.5 1.8 0.7
2016Away 5.42 1.44 88.0 5 7 0 7.9 3.3 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Dallas Keuchel compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.70
 
K/9
6.7
 
BB/9
2.5
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
89.3 mph
 
ERA
3.71
 
WHIP
1.29
 
BABIP
.308
 
GB/FB
2.63
 
Strand %
72.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
The league adjusted to the 2015 Cy Young winner in a big way (4.80 ERA, 2.8 K/BB first half) and while he started to adjust back in the second half (3.94 ERA, 3.6 K/BB), he then lost the final month of the season to a shoulder injury. The major change was that the opposition started swinging less often at Keuchel's pitches out of the zone, which forced him back into the zone in hitter-friendly or even counts. Additionally, his OPS-against on plate appearances ending out of the zone skyrocketed from a league-best .339 in 2015 to .530 last year -- or slightly better than the .579 average (min. 150 IP). Each one of his pitches performed worse, too, but especially his "hard" stuff. The fastball and cutter combined for an .837 OPS, up from .669 in 2015. He was cleared to resume throwing this offseason and should enter camp healthy. Keuchel is definitely far from his 2015 peak, but he's better than his 2016 bottom line. Don't pay for more than high-3.00s ERA.
Keuchel proved just how dominant of a pitcher he can be last season, especially when inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. The AL Cy Young Award finalist was a perfect 15-0 at home en route a 20-8 record overall, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216:51 K:BB ratio over a career-high 232 innings. His groundball rate (2.29 GO/AO) was second-best in the majors and he once again led all pitchers in assists (53) to win the AL Gold Glove award for the second consecutive year. Keuchel has clearly established himself as a reliable fantasy ace who is worth drafting among the top-10 starters in all formats.
After two straight seasons with an ERA above five, Keuchel came out of nowhere to establish himself as a premier pitcher in 2014. The left-hander reached 200 innings exactly, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and leading the AL with five complete games. His groundball rate (2.83 GO/AO) was the best in the majors by far and he led all pitchers in total chances (66) and assists (47) to win the AL Gold Glove award. Keuchel's 3.21 FIP indicates his success was no fluke, and his remarkable season puts him in line to start Opening Day for the Astros in 2015.
Keuchel didn't make the Astros' roster out of camp, but he saw significant time in the majors last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness of other pitchers. In 153.2 innings (22 starts), the 26-year-old lefty compiled a 6-10 record with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but Keuchel significantly improved his strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) over the year prior. The extreme groundballer (2.07 GO/AO) will have to battle for a spot in the starting rotation out of camp, but will likely make the roster in some capacity, be it as a starter or long reliever.
Keuchel finished 2012 with a 3-8 record and a brutal 5.27 ERA. He is not going to blow anyone away, and without an out pitch to speak of (last year he struck out just 4.0 K/9), his pitch-to-contact approach has to keep the ball on the ground to be effective. The Astros would like to see him get a little bigger and stronger, and hope he will be able to establish his sinker more by taking a few miles-per-hour off of it to allow for more movement. He will have a lot to prove this spring, but has likely shown enough to break camp with the team.
More Fantasy News
Takes no-decision Friday
PHouston Astros
September 14, 2018
Keuchel earned a quality start in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Friday. He allowed two earned runs on five hits and four walks over six innings while striking out five.
ANALYSIS
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Roughed up by Red Sox
PHouston Astros
September 9, 2018
Keuchel allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out two across six innings Sunday against the Red Sox. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Six strong innings in win over Twins
PHouston Astros
September 4, 2018
Keuchel (11-10) allowed one unearned run on five hits and two walks across six innings Monday to earn the win against the Twins. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Fires quality start
PHouston Astros
August 29, 2018
Keuchel didn't factor into the decision Wednesday against the A's, allowing three runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out five across six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Evens record in victory
PHouston Astros
August 24, 2018
Keuchel (10-10) got the win against the Angels on Friday, giving up two earned runs on five hits over seven innings, striking out six and walking two in Houston's 9-3 victory.
ANALYSIS
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