Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel
33-Year-Old PitcherSP
Chicago White Sox
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Keuchel recorded a career-best 1.99 ERA in 11 starts last season, though he benefited from quite a bit of good fortune to get there. His .255 BABIP, 81.6% strand rate and 4.7% HR/FB rate rate are all textbook indicators that regression is coming. The lefty's 3.08 FIP was quite strong, though that statistic gives a pitcher full credit for his HR/FB rate; xFIP, on the other hand, regresses that number all the way to league average and gives him a middling 3.98 mark. Keuchel's 3.59 career ERA nearly matches his 3.54 xFIP, so there's reason to believe his ERA will regress up towards 4.00 next season. If he combines that with last season's 16.3% strikeout rate, his lowest since his rookie season back in 2012, he'll be a rather unexciting option. He should still be useful (though age-related decline can't be ruled out in his age-33 season), but don't draft him expecting anything close to a 1.99 ERA. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#217
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $55.5 million contract with the White Sox in December of 2019. Contract includes $20 million team option ($1.5 million buyout) for 2023. 2023 option guaranteed with 160 innings pitched in both 2021 and 2022.
Pounded for 11 hits
PChicago White Sox
September 21, 2021
Keuchel gave up two runs on 11 hits and a walk while striking out two across five innings during Tuesday's loss to the Tigers. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
A lack of efficiency hurt Keuchel this time as he needed 95 pitches to complete five innings. Meanwhile, his 11 hits allowed were a season worst. Akil Baddoo was Keuchel's biggest enemy of the day with two RBI singles, accounting for all the damage. The lefty will bring a 5.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP into his next projected start Sunday at Cleveland.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
87
Last 10 Games
85
Last 5 Games
81
How many pitches does Dallas Keuchel generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Dallas Keuchel generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-9%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-33%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .248 271 59 20 61 10 3 6
Since 2019vs Right .270 1164 166 92 284 45 7 36
2021vs Left .305 142 26 10 40 6 2 4
2021vs Right .279 549 66 46 138 27 3 20
2020vs Left .171 45 8 4 7 0 0 0
2020vs Right .228 212 34 13 45 8 1 2
2019vs Left .189 84 25 6 14 4 1 2
2019vs Right .281 403 66 33 101 10 3 14
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-23%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-39%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.57 1.21 166.1 12 6 0 6.4 2.6 1.0
Since 2019Away 4.61 1.54 166.0 10 13 0 5.8 3.5 1.2
2021Home 4.50 1.35 80.0 5 2 0 5.9 3.0 1.6
2021Away 5.90 1.65 76.1 3 7 0 4.7 3.4 1.2
2020Home 2.63 0.92 24.0 3 1 0 6.4 2.3 0.0
2020Away 1.60 1.19 39.1 3 1 0 5.7 2.5 0.5
2019Home 2.74 1.16 62.1 4 3 0 7.1 2.2 0.7
2019Away 5.01 1.63 50.1 4 5 0 7.5 4.3 2.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dallas Keuchel compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.64
 
K/9
5.3
 
BB/9
3.2
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
87.9 mph
 
ERA
5.18
 
WHIP
1.50
 
BABIP
.306
 
GB/FB
2.51
 
Left On Base
66.9%
 
Exit Velocity
83.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.9%
 
Spin Rate
1974 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
30.4%
 
Swinging Strike
8.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Keuchel did not take the mound until late June as he was victimized by the cruel mixture of the qualifying offer and free agency. Anytime a pitcher misses that much time due to contractual issues, we expect struggles early and Keuchel was no different, as he went 3-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over his first 10 starts. His final nine starts were closer to what Atlanta and fantasy owners wanted (5-3 with a 2.55 ERA), but the high WHIP remained. His 8.0 BB% was slightly above his career norms, but still reasonable for a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. The spike in home runs, well, nearly everyone had that issue last year. The White Sox inked him to a three-year, $55.5 million deal to help anchor a high-variance rotation. Yasmani Grandal's framing could aid his walk and strikeout rates slightly. Nonetheless, it's clear that the middle part of this decade was his peak.
Keuchel was able to stay healthy and make a career-high 34 starts in 2018, but the skills took a hit. While the lefty was able to keep the walks in check, he lost roughly four percentage points from his K-rate (17.5%), and his groundball rate fell to 53.7% -- still well above average, but a far cry from the 66.8% mark he had in 2017. He was able to cut back on the homers despite that dip in groundball rate, but it's tough to bank on that trend continuing. As he enters his age-31 season and moves on from the Astros in free agency, Keuchel looks like he still has something in the tank, but the decline in the quality of his sinker, slider and changeup point to this being the beginning of the downward slope. This is a former AL Cy Young winner who has posted sub-3.00 ERAs in three of the past five seasons, but at this stage a low-4.00s ERA may be a more realistic expectation.
At least according to FIP (3.87 in 2016, 3.79 in 2017), Keuchel wasn’t a dramatically different pitcher last season, but he noticed far better results than the year prior. For the third time in four seasons, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while adding to his value with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 wins. The impact of those numbers was somewhat dampened by Keuchel missing most of June and July while recovering from a neck issue, and after a brilliant first half, he was far less productive after the break, managing only a 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 70 frames. With a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, Keuchel will never be the strikeout-per-inning pitcher that typifies most aces, but his ability to generate ample groundballs and avoid damage via the long ball are skills that have routinely helped him outperform his peripherals. Moreover, with a power-packed offense backing him again, Keuchel’s path to wins will be more favorable than most other starters of his caliber.
The league adjusted to the 2015 Cy Young winner in a big way (4.80 ERA, 2.8 K/BB first half) and while he started to adjust back in the second half (3.94 ERA, 3.6 K/BB), he then lost the final month of the season to a shoulder injury. The major change was that the opposition started swinging less often at Keuchel's pitches out of the zone, which forced him back into the zone in hitter-friendly or even counts. Additionally, his OPS-against on plate appearances ending out of the zone skyrocketed from a league-best .339 in 2015 to .530 last year -- or slightly better than the .579 average (min. 150 IP). Each one of his pitches performed worse, too, but especially his "hard" stuff. The fastball and cutter combined for an .837 OPS, up from .669 in 2015. He was cleared to resume throwing this offseason and should enter camp healthy. Keuchel is definitely far from his 2015 peak, but he's better than his 2016 bottom line. Don't pay for more than high-3.00s ERA.
Keuchel proved just how dominant of a pitcher he can be last season, especially when inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. The AL Cy Young Award finalist was a perfect 15-0 at home en route a 20-8 record overall, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216:51 K:BB ratio over a career-high 232 innings. His groundball rate (2.29 GO/AO) was second-best in the majors and he once again led all pitchers in assists (53) to win the AL Gold Glove award for the second consecutive year. Keuchel has clearly established himself as a reliable fantasy ace who is worth drafting among the top-10 starters in all formats.
After two straight seasons with an ERA above five, Keuchel came out of nowhere to establish himself as a premier pitcher in 2014. The left-hander reached 200 innings exactly, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and leading the AL with five complete games. His groundball rate (2.83 GO/AO) was the best in the majors by far and he led all pitchers in total chances (66) and assists (47) to win the AL Gold Glove award. Keuchel's 3.21 FIP indicates his success was no fluke, and his remarkable season puts him in line to start Opening Day for the Astros in 2015.
Keuchel didn't make the Astros' roster out of camp, but he saw significant time in the majors last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness of other pitchers. In 153.2 innings (22 starts), the 26-year-old lefty compiled a 6-10 record with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but Keuchel significantly improved his strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) over the year prior. The extreme groundballer (2.07 GO/AO) will have to battle for a spot in the starting rotation out of camp, but will likely make the roster in some capacity, be it as a starter or long reliever.
Keuchel finished 2012 with a 3-8 record and a brutal 5.27 ERA. He is not going to blow anyone away, and without an out pitch to speak of (last year he struck out just 4.0 K/9), his pitch-to-contact approach has to keep the ball on the ground to be effective. The Astros would like to see him get a little bigger and stronger, and hope he will be able to establish his sinker more by taking a few miles-per-hour off of it to allow for more movement. He will have a lot to prove this spring, but has likely shown enough to break camp with the team.
More Fantasy News
Solid results across six innings
PChicago White Sox
September 15, 2021
Keuchel allowed two earned runs on six hits and five walks while striking out three across six innings Wednesday against the Angels. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Some positives in loss
PChicago White Sox
September 9, 2021
Keuchel (8-9) allowed five runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out three over 5.2 innings to take the loss Wednesday in Oakland.
ANALYSIS
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Yields six runs in loss
PChicago White Sox
September 4, 2021
Keuchel (8-8) allowed six runs (five earned) on seven hits and two walks over three innings Friday, striking out one batter and taking a loss against the Royals.
ANALYSIS
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Lit up in first inning
PChicago White Sox
August 27, 2021
Keuchel allowed six runs (five earned) on seven hits and a walk in one inning versus the Cubs on Friday. He struck out one and did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Rocked by Rays
PChicago White Sox
August 21, 2021
Keuchel (8-7) was saddled with the loss Saturday against the Rays after allowing six runs on nine hits over five innings. He struck out three batters while walking a pair.
ANALYSIS
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