Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Keuchel was able to stay healthy and make a career-high 34 starts in 2018, but the skills took a hit. While the lefty was able to keep the walks in check, he lost roughly four percentage points from his K-rate (17.5%), and his groundball rate fell to 53.7% -- still well above average, but a far cry from the 66.8% mark he had in 2017. He was able to cut back on the homers despite that dip in groundball rate, but it's tough to bank on that trend continuing. As he enters his age-31 season and moves on from the Astros in free agency, Keuchel looks like he still has something in the tank, but the decline in the quality of his sinker, slider and changeup point to this being the beginning of the downward slope. This is a former AL Cy Young winner who has posted sub-3.00 ERAs in three of the past five seasons, but at this stage a low-4.00s ERA may be a more realistic expectation. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $13.2 million contract with the Astros in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Not close to signing
PFree Agent  
March 5, 2019
Keuchel isn't particularly close to signing with any team, Buster Olney of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
It's not completely surprising that Keuchel would take some time to find a suitor, as the lefty's valuation of himself as a recent Cy Young winner likely differs from those of front offices, who see him as a 31-year-old with a fastball that sits in the high 80s. Still, to see him still sitting at home in early March with no particularly strong rumors is unexpected. At this point, he may wind up signing a short-term deal with a contender that loses a starter to injury. There's a risk that his start to the regular season is delayed if he can't find a spot soon.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-39%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .229 426 103 18 92 15 1 8
Since 2016vs Right .255 1733 319 135 403 86 6 45
2018vs Left .281 162 37 7 43 8 0 3
2018vs Right .259 712 116 51 168 40 1 15
2017vs Left .145 117 36 5 16 2 0 3
2017vs Right .236 467 89 42 100 16 0 12
2016vs Left .237 147 30 6 33 5 1 2
2016vs Right .265 554 114 42 135 30 5 18
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.33 1.13 248.2 14 14 0 7.1 2.4 0.8
Since 2016Away 4.17 1.36 269.2 21 14 0 7.6 2.9 1.1
2018Home 3.90 1.29 97.0 4 6 0 6.4 2.7 1.0
2018Away 3.59 1.34 107.2 8 5 0 7.0 2.4 0.6
2017Home 2.26 0.95 71.2 6 3 0 7.4 2.6 0.5
2017Away 3.53 1.28 74.0 8 2 0 8.0 3.2 1.3
2016Home 3.60 1.11 80.0 4 5 0 7.5 1.8 0.7
2016Away 5.42 1.44 88.0 5 7 0 7.9 3.3 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Dallas Keuchel compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.64
 
K/9
6.7
 
BB/9
2.6
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
89.3 mph
 
ERA
3.74
 
WHIP
1.31
 
BABIP
.313
 
GB/FB
2.58
 
Strand %
73.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dallas Keuchel
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
At least according to FIP (3.87 in 2016, 3.79 in 2017), Keuchel wasn’t a dramatically different pitcher last season, but he noticed far better results than the year prior. For the third time in four seasons, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while adding to his value with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 wins. The impact of those numbers was somewhat dampened by Keuchel missing most of June and July while recovering from a neck issue, and after a brilliant first half, he was far less productive after the break, managing only a 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 70 frames. With a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, Keuchel will never be the strikeout-per-inning pitcher that typifies most aces, but his ability to generate ample groundballs and avoid damage via the long ball are skills that have routinely helped him outperform his peripherals. Moreover, with a power-packed offense backing him again, Keuchel’s path to wins will be more favorable than most other starters of his caliber.
The league adjusted to the 2015 Cy Young winner in a big way (4.80 ERA, 2.8 K/BB first half) and while he started to adjust back in the second half (3.94 ERA, 3.6 K/BB), he then lost the final month of the season to a shoulder injury. The major change was that the opposition started swinging less often at Keuchel's pitches out of the zone, which forced him back into the zone in hitter-friendly or even counts. Additionally, his OPS-against on plate appearances ending out of the zone skyrocketed from a league-best .339 in 2015 to .530 last year -- or slightly better than the .579 average (min. 150 IP). Each one of his pitches performed worse, too, but especially his "hard" stuff. The fastball and cutter combined for an .837 OPS, up from .669 in 2015. He was cleared to resume throwing this offseason and should enter camp healthy. Keuchel is definitely far from his 2015 peak, but he's better than his 2016 bottom line. Don't pay for more than high-3.00s ERA.
Keuchel proved just how dominant of a pitcher he can be last season, especially when inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. The AL Cy Young Award finalist was a perfect 15-0 at home en route a 20-8 record overall, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216:51 K:BB ratio over a career-high 232 innings. His groundball rate (2.29 GO/AO) was second-best in the majors and he once again led all pitchers in assists (53) to win the AL Gold Glove award for the second consecutive year. Keuchel has clearly established himself as a reliable fantasy ace who is worth drafting among the top-10 starters in all formats.
After two straight seasons with an ERA above five, Keuchel came out of nowhere to establish himself as a premier pitcher in 2014. The left-hander reached 200 innings exactly, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and leading the AL with five complete games. His groundball rate (2.83 GO/AO) was the best in the majors by far and he led all pitchers in total chances (66) and assists (47) to win the AL Gold Glove award. Keuchel's 3.21 FIP indicates his success was no fluke, and his remarkable season puts him in line to start Opening Day for the Astros in 2015.
Keuchel didn't make the Astros' roster out of camp, but he saw significant time in the majors last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness of other pitchers. In 153.2 innings (22 starts), the 26-year-old lefty compiled a 6-10 record with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but Keuchel significantly improved his strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) over the year prior. The extreme groundballer (2.07 GO/AO) will have to battle for a spot in the starting rotation out of camp, but will likely make the roster in some capacity, be it as a starter or long reliever.
Keuchel finished 2012 with a 3-8 record and a brutal 5.27 ERA. He is not going to blow anyone away, and without an out pitch to speak of (last year he struck out just 4.0 K/9), his pitch-to-contact approach has to keep the ball on the ground to be effective. The Astros would like to see him get a little bigger and stronger, and hope he will be able to establish his sinker more by taking a few miles-per-hour off of it to allow for more movement. He will have a lot to prove this spring, but has likely shown enough to break camp with the team.
More Fantasy News
Becomes free agent
PFree Agent  
November 12, 2018
Keuchel declined the Astros' one-year, $17.9 million qualifying offer and became a free agent Monday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Receives qualifying offer
PFree Agent  
November 2, 2018
Keuchel was issued a $17.9 million qualifying offer from Houston on Friday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Tabbed as Game 3 starter
PHouston Astros  
October 14, 2018
Keuchel will start Game 3 of the ALCS against the Red Sox, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Goes five innings in no-decision
PHouston Astros  
October 8, 2018
Keuchel started Game 3 of the ALDS in Monday's series-clinching win over the Indians but didn't factor into the decision. He went five innings and gave up two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out two.
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Throws three innings as planned
PHouston Astros  
September 30, 2018
Keuchel allowed one run on five hits and one walk while striking out two in a 5-2 win over Baltimore in the nightcap of Saturday's doubleheader.
ANALYSIS
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