Dylan Bundy
Dylan Bundy
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Baltimore Orioles
2019 Fantasy Outlook
There isn't a clearer example of control (throwing strikes) versus command (throwing where you want) than Bundy. He has good control as exhibited by 7.2% and 7.3% walk rates the past two seasons, below the 8.5% league average. His stuff is good as evidenced by an above-average 12.7% swinging-strike rate, fueling a solid 24.5% strikeout rate despite a 92 mph average fastball. Then there's the homers: 41 of them in just 171.2 innings. While a flyball pitcher of Bundy's ilk is prone to homers, and an 17.8% HR/FB likely includes some bad luck, Bundy's poor command was the primary reason for extreme gopheritis. A .316 BABIP for a flyball pitcher is another example of too many meatballs. So long as he remains in Camden Yards, Bundy will sport a high home-run rate. To be fantasy relevant, especially in mixed formats, he needs to counter the launch angle era with better command. He has the stuff, so if the price is right, he's worth a stash. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $2.8 million contract with the Orioles in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Surrenders three earned runs
PBaltimore Orioles
May 23, 2019
Bundy allowed three earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out five across 5.2 innings Thursday against the Yankees. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
While still a passable outing, Bundy had allowed just three hits through five innings. Things unraveled a bit for him in the sixth frame as he allowed two walks and two hits that accounted for two of his three earned runs. Home runs remain an issue for him, as he yielded a solo shot to Clint Frazier in the fifth inning and has now been tagged for 2.1 HR/9 across 52 innings. On the other hand, he's surrendered only six earned runs across his last 23.2 innings, spanning four starts. He'll look to maintain the improved results in his next start, currently scheduled at home Tuesday against Detroit.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-28%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .283 819 142 68 208 48 4 31
Since 2017vs Right .228 852 246 58 177 37 1 48
2019vs Left .221 106 18 9 21 6 0 2
2019vs Right .238 117 34 12 24 6 0 10
2018vs Left .319 380 68 33 109 23 3 17
2018vs Right .230 370 116 21 79 16 1 24
2017vs Left .261 333 56 26 78 19 1 12
2017vs Right .222 365 96 25 74 15 0 14
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-4%
ERA at Home
2019
Even Split
2018
 
 
-6%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-2%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.75 1.25 225.2 13 16 0 8.2 2.4 1.8
Since 2017Away 4.94 1.37 167.2 10 14 0 9.8 3.5 1.8
2019Home 4.68 1.22 32.2 1 3 0 6.9 2.2 2.5
2019Away 4.66 1.34 19.1 1 2 0 12.6 6.1 1.4
2018Home 5.31 1.37 96.2 5 8 0 9.4 2.6 2.0
2018Away 5.64 1.47 75.0 3 8 0 10.0 3.1 2.3
2017Home 4.20 1.13 96.1 7 5 0 7.5 2.2 1.4
2017Away 4.30 1.28 73.1 6 4 0 8.8 3.3 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Dylan Bundy compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 40 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.48
 
K/9
9.0
 
BB/9
3.6
 
HR/9
2.1
 
Fastball
90.9 mph
 
ERA
4.67
 
WHIP
1.27
 
BABIP
.259
 
GB/FB
0.92
 
Left On Base
73.2%
 
Exit Velocity
88.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
8.2%
 
Spin Rate
2207 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
31.5%
 
Swinging Strike
12.5%
 
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
The "Verducci Effect" has been debunked, but a 60-inning spike in workload from year-to-year, as Bundy saw from 2016 to 2017, is still a bit troubling. That's especially true with a player with Bundy's injury history; he's undergone Tommy John surgery and dealt with shoulder troubles since being drafted fourth overall in 2011. He posted a 2.89 ERA over the first two months, and a 21.8 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate overall last season. Bundy turned in his best career start on Aug. 29 -- a one-hitter with 12 punchouts -- before ultimately succumbing to a hamstring strain. While lefties slugged .452 against Bundy, he held right-handers to a .222/.282/.392 line, and there was little difference in his home/road splits. He's lost some velocity and remains a big injury risk, but at least if he's a bust, he won't sink you given the modest cost.
Bundy is a great reminder of why we have to be careful with prospect arms. He sped through the minors and debuted in his first professional season (2012). He then missed all of 2013 following Tommy John surgery and has been on the slow return ever since. After just 65 innings combined in 2014-15, his 2016 outlook was hazy at best. He was out of options and didn't have enough innings built up to be a full-time starter. He relieved in the first half and started in the second. His workload was managed, slowly escalating his pitch count into the 90s. His velocity as a starter dropped from July to August, but jumped back up in September. He's platoon-neutral, has a devastating hammer curve and showed flashes of what made him a top-100 prospect. The next step will be to curb the homers (1.9 HR/9 as a starter).
How the mighty have fallen. It seems like a lifetime ago when Bundy was the top pitching prospect in the game and making his debut with the Orioles as a teenager. Tommy John surgery and shoulder issues have derailed his career and held him to just 63 innings since 2012. Bundy was pretty good in limited activity at Double-A last season, never throwing more than 65 pitches in a game. He was shut down in May with the shoulder issue, then began a fall throwing program and appeared in two Arizona Fall League games before having to be shut down with a strain in his forearm. The complicated thing with Bundy is that he has to be kept on the 25-man roster on Opening Day or risk being exposed to waivers. Bundy's prospect star has fallen, but other teams would gladly vulture Bundy away if given the chance. If he can get healthy, the Orioles would probably slot him in the middle of their bullpen in an effort to keep him healthy for a full season before stretching him back out heading into 2017.
Bundy was forced to spend most of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he was able to make nine rehab starts in the low minors down the stretch before getting shut down in August after straining a lat muscle in his throwing shoulder. At times, the young righty was brilliant and on other days he struggled in his rehab outings, but those numbers are fairly irrelevant to his long-term outlook. The Orioles will find a spot for Bundy in the major league rotation this season, but it’s not abundantly clear when or for how long, as he pitched 105.1 innings in his first professional season in 2012, and obviously hasn't approached that level since. This is not a mid-rotation starter, at least not if he avoids further setbacks, and is able to get most of his former velocity and control back. Bundy is a 6-foot-1 brick house of fine-tuned filth, and it will soon be time for him to actualize his destiny of heading up a big league rotation.
An elite prospect entering 2013, Bundy experienced elbow issues at the conclusion of spring training, which resulted in Tommy John surgery at the end of June. He'll be on the mend to begin the year but should return to minor league action around midseason. However, there is a very small chance that he contributes for the Orioles in 2014, especially considering the careful approach the organization took with his workload and development before the injury. The goal for Bundy will be to crack the big league rotation in early 2015.
Bundy should start the season as the top prospect on most boards after a season in which he made it all the way to the Orioles as a 19-year-old. Working on a 125-inning limit for the season, Bundy rifled off 30 scoreless innings to start the year at Low-A before advancing to Double-A in time to make a few appearances. The Orioles emptied the bullpen in marathon extra-inning games down the stretch and promoted Bundy, who made two September appearances. He throws three different fastballs, a curveball and a changeup. During his September callup, his fastball averaged 94 mph, his changeup registered at 86 mph, but he did not throw much in the way of the curveball. Look for Bundy to start the season in Double-A, while a late-season promotion is possible if he continues to breeze through the minors.
Bundy is the newest addition to the organization as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2011 MLB draft. He won High School Player of the Year honors from Gatorade and Baseball America after going 11-0 with a 0.25 ERA and 158:5 K:BB over 71 innings for his Oklahoma team. He owns a high-90s fastball and a big curveball and is already one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. The Orioles give him a 40-man roster spot upon signing in August, so Bundy could move through the system quickly despite being a high school product.
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Yields zero earned runs
PBaltimore Orioles
May 17, 2019
Bundy (2-5) allowed one unearned run on three hits with seven strikeouts and three walks across 5.2 innings to earn a victory against the Indians on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Downplays velocity drop
PBaltimore Orioles
May 13, 2019
Bundy said the velocity dip he experienced during his start Saturday against the Angels wasn't due to an injury, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports. "My arm feels great," Bundy said Sunday, when asked about the matter.
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Loses fifth game
PBaltimore Orioles
May 11, 2019
Bundy (1-5) gave up three runs on four hits -- including two home runs -- with two walks while striking out two over five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Angels on Saturday.
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Delivers scoreless gem
PBaltimore Orioles
May 4, 2019
Bundy (1-4) earned the win by allowing only three hits across 7.1 scoreless innings during Saturday's 3-0 win over the Rays. He struck out four and walked one.
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Takes another loss
PBaltimore Orioles
April 28, 2019
Bundy (0-4) gave up four runs on five hits (including two home runs) with three walks while striking out eight through five innings in a loss to the Twins on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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