Trevor Story

Trevor Story

29-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Boston Red Sox
2022 Fantasy Outlook
By the numbers, Story's season was the second worst of his career, with a 100 wRC+. However, there were two instances of bad luck, masking the fact his skills were in sync with past seasons. Story's groundball BABIP was 100 points lower than normal, costing him almost 15 hits. Further, his flyball average exit velocity was a career high, but his HR/FB was his second lowest. The associated expected stats suggest Story's season should have been like his recent production. Taking out the park factors from Story's recent baseline with Colorado yields a .263/.329/.480 neutral slash, a drop of around .080 in OPS from his actual production. Story's running game will play anywhere as he's swiped at least 20 bags in three of the past four seasons, with only 15 in 2020's two-month season falling short. He may not be a first rounder/$30 player, but Story is still a solid fantasy asset that could receive a bump for his counting stats after signing with Boston, where he'll play second base while Xander Bogaerts remains at shortstop. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#36
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $62.5 million contract with the Red Sox in March of 2022. Contract includes opt out after 2025 season. Contract includes three-year, $75 million team option ($5 million buyout) for 2026 through 2028 seasons.
Blasts second homer
SSBoston Red Sox
May 17, 2022
Story went 1-for-3 with a walk, a solo home run and a stolen base in Monday's 6-3 win over the Astros.
ANALYSIS
His seventh-inning blast off Phil Maton was his first home homer as a member of the Red Sox and it left Fenway Park entirely, flying over the Green Monster and onto Lansdowne Street. Both of Story's home runs on the season have come in the last five games as he begins to show signs of life at the plate, and he's also stolen a bag in three straight games.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
12
1
1
10
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
2
1
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+32%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+2%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+33%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+34%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .968 259 50 14 40 9 .297 .375 .594
Since 2020vs Right .736 722 91 23 79 30 .241 .316 .420
2022vs Left .588 25 2 0 4 0 .174 .240 .348
2022vs Right .597 106 10 2 12 4 .207 .292 .304
2021vs Left .974 161 33 9 27 2 .297 .360 .614
2021vs Right .735 434 55 15 48 18 .234 .318 .417
2020vs Left 1.091 73 15 5 9 7 .344 .452 .639
2020vs Right .812 182 26 6 19 8 .276 .324 .488
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+19%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+11%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+23%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .865 487 74 17 69 14 .294 .357 .508
Since 2020Away .729 494 67 20 50 25 .217 .306 .423
2022Home .558 53 3 1 9 1 .188 .245 .313
2022Away .621 78 9 1 7 3 .209 .308 .313
2021Home .880 307 51 11 47 10 .296 .365 .515
2021Away .717 288 37 13 28 10 .203 .292 .426
2020Home .958 127 20 5 13 3 .333 .386 .573
2020Away .818 128 21 6 15 12 .254 .336 .482
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Story compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a batter in feet per second.
BB/K
0.29
 
BB Rate
9.2%
 
K Rate
31.3%
 
BABIP
.284
 
ISO
.113
 
AVG
.200
 
OBP
.282
 
SLG
.313
 
OPS
.595
 
wOBA
.269
 
Exit Velocity
80.5 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
21.0%
 
Barrels/PA
5.7%
 
Sprint Speed
23.7
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
Story is taking after Nolan Arenado in that he's becoming a model of consistency and should remain a rotisserie stud for as long as he remains in Colorado. He managed both double-digit home runs and stolen bases for the third consecutive campaign despite having only 59 games to do so. If there is a negative to point to, it's that Story displayed some downturn in his plate discipline and quality of contact in 2020. Though his contact rate improved from 2019, a higher rate of that contact came on the pitches outside the zone as Story's O-Contact% jumped to a career-high 67.4% rate. The result was a dip in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, though he maintained a barrel rate within his career norms. Nevertheless, it's easy to chalk those slight differences to variance in a far-from-normal campaign. Entering his age-28 season, Story is one of the most valuable five-category contributors in the league.
On the surface, Story's 2019 campaign was much like the previous year and his rookie campaign, making 2017 the outlier. That said, considering the league-wide spike in power and overall offense, perhaps last season was a small step back. This is corroborated by a small dip in xwOBA (an estimation using Statcast metrics). Story's batted-ball profile was a near match to 2018, save for fewer barrels, likely accounting for the drop in xwOBA. Specifically, his GB/LD/FB ratios and hard-hit rate were close to 2018 levels. Not only did Story carry over his improved contact rate, he continued to run, swiping 23 bags, reinforcing a strong floor. Add in Coors Field and decent durability (656 plate appearances each of the past two seasons), the 27-year old is one of the best at a stacked shortstop position. Story warrants first-round consideration and $30-plus in auctions as he contributes across the board.
While 2016 may have been Story's breakout, 2018 was the season everything came together. He hit for a career-high average while greatly reducing his strikeout rate and expanding his power at the plate. The volume of stolen bases was a huge surprise that nobody forecasted in draft season and a bonus. His home-run total went up despite a small drop in his flyball rate. More hard contact allowed his HR/FB to get up to 20% and helped fuel the homer surge. There are two causes for concern moving forward, though: Story had an elbow scare near the end of the season that nearly put him on the surgeon's table, so that bears watching. Secondly, he ended the season with a 64-point split between his actual slugging percentage of .567 and his expected slugging percentage (.503). He is more likely to slide back to 30 homers than to challenge for 40 in 2019.
Story was in the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2016 before a thumb ligament injury ended his season, but he was unable to repeat that success in 2017. He stumbled out of the gates, batting .180/.289/.396 over his first 34 games. Story hit .255 with 18 homers and 67 RBI in 112 games after his return from a shoulder injury in May, but he continued to swing and miss at a high rate, fanning in one-third of his plate appearances over the remainder of the year. The strikeouts are not as much of a problem in today's game, and that's especially true when a player hits the ball as hard as Story does -- his 40.3 percent hard-hit rate ranked 18th among qualified hitters. Story will likely continue to be a batting-average liability with his current approach, even while playing half his games at Coors Field, but his prolific power and splash of speed at the shortstop position give him appeal at what will be a significantly discounted price from a year ago.
Story was given an opportunity in the starting role from Day 1 last season, replacing the suspended Jose Reyes. The rookie took off from the get-go, seemingly tearing down every rookie record in the book. Through the first month of the season, he already had 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and a massive 1.019 OPS. Understandably, he wasn't able to sustain this ridiculously torrid pace, but he managed to put up a .908 OPS, 27 home runs and 72 RBI prior to a thumb injury that cut his season short by two months. Story's 130 strikeouts are a concern, as that number could grow as pitchers figure out his tendencies, and his home/road splits were very different as one would expect for a Coors Field batter (1.086 home OPS vs. .747 road OPS). That being said, Story cemented himself as the shortstop of the future for the Rockies, and he looks to be an excellent source of power at the shortstop position playing half of his games in the thin Colorado air.
Story was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the 2013 season, but his stock crashed to the point that he didn’t crack any industry top-100 lists in 2014 or 2015. That streak will come to a screeching halt this offseason, as Story made a big statement, abusing Double-A and Triple-A pitchers alike. He slashed .279/.350/.514 with 20 home runs and 22 steals (on 25 attempts) in 130 games, splitting time evenly between the two levels. Story remains age appropriate for his level, as he should debut in the majors early on in his age-23 campaign. Jose Reyes appears to stand in Story’s way, but Reyes’ performance was below replacement level in 47 games with Colorado last season, and he has serious off-field issues that could also cut into his availability. Look for Story to be starting every day at shortstop for the Rockies sooner rather than later in 2016, making him a worthy late-round flier in mixed leagues.
Forced to repeat High-A Modesto after striking out in 33 percent of his plate appearances in 2013, Story shined in his second go-around, slashing .332/.436/.582 while showing noticeable growth in his plate discipline. The improvements earned Story a midseason promotion to Double-A Tulsa. Just as was the case in the California League, he scuffled in his initial exposure to the new level. His strikeout rate hiked up to 34.6% and his on-base percentage sank to .302 over 237 plate appearances, dimming the impact of the rare power/speed package he offers at shortstop. Story’s ongoing contact issues leave scouts divided on whether or not he’ll become a viable big league regular, but it could simply be a matter of the 22-year-old needing more time to adjust to advanced pitching. The Rockies are of no mind to rush Story to the majors while Troy Tulowitzki is around, so he’ll have ample opportunity to refine his swing at the Double-A level and assert his standing as the team’s top middle infield prospect.
Story’s age-19 season was a promising one, as he exhibited a nice combination of power (18 homers), speed (15 steals) and on-base skills (.361 OBP). Story is not without a few flaws, however. It should be noted that his numbers came in the friendly hitting confines of the South Atlantic League, and his high strikeout totals could become more problematic as he advances in the minors. Story will likely move on to another hitters’ paradise in the California League this season, so it is possible we will not know the full extent of his batting skills until he reaches the upper levels of the minors.
More Fantasy News
Finally goes deep
SSBoston Red Sox
May 12, 2022
Story went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's 5-3 loss to Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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Dropped further in order
SSBoston Red Sox
May 11, 2022
Story batted sixth and went 2-for-5 with two RBI and a run scored in Tuesday's 9-4 win over Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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Dropped to second
SSBoston Red Sox
May 7, 2022
Story batted second and went 1-for-4 with an RBI in Friday's 4-2 loss to the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Fans four times
SSBoston Red Sox
May 6, 2022
Story went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts in Thursday's 8-0 loss to the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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Shows positive signs
SSBoston Red Sox
May 5, 2022
Story went 2-for-5 with two doubles and three RBI in Wednesday's 10-5 extra-inning loss to the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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