Trevor Story
Trevor Story
28-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Colorado Rockies
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Story is taking after Nolan Arenado in that he's becoming a model of consistency and should remain a rotisserie stud for as long as he remains in Colorado. He managed both double-digit home runs and stolen bases for the third consecutive campaign despite having only 59 games to do so. If there is a negative to point to, it's that Story displayed some downturn in his plate discipline and quality of contact in 2020. Though his contact rate improved from 2019, a higher rate of that contact came on the pitches outside the zone as Story's O-Contact% jumped to a career-high 67.4% rate. The result was a dip in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, though he maintained a barrel rate within his career norms. Nevertheless, it's easy to chalk those slight differences to variance in a far-from-normal campaign. Entering his age-28 season, Story is one of the most valuable five-category contributors in the league. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#12
ADP
$Signed a two-year, $27.5 million contract with the Rockies in January of 2020.
Belts 11th homer
SSColorado Rockies
September 17, 2020
Story went 2-for-4 with a solo home run, a double and another run scored during Thursday's loss to the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
Story had a successful night at the plate, doubling and scoring against Julio Urias in the first inning, then leaving the yard against Adam Kolarek in the eighth. Unfortunately, the Rockies couldn't get it done at home against the Dodgers. On the season, Story leads Colorado with 11 home runs, 58 hits and a .374 on-base percentage.
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Batting Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
32
3
4
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
17
2
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+17%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+34%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+2%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+25%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left 1.015 453 72 28 76 19 .323 .391 .625
Since 2018vs Right .870 1114 168 55 145 46 .281 .342 .528
2020vs Left 1.091 73 15 5 9 7 .344 .452 .639
2020vs Right .812 182 26 6 19 8 .276 .324 .488
2019vs Left .933 187 27 9 24 8 .314 .369 .564
2019vs Right .911 469 84 26 61 15 .286 .360 .550
2018vs Left 1.069 193 30 14 43 4 .326 .389 .680
2018vs Right .852 463 58 23 65 23 .277 .330 .521
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+33%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+39%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+34%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home 1.038 802 141 55 140 25 .319 .384 .654
Since 2018Away .781 765 99 28 81 40 .266 .327 .454
2020Home .958 127 20 5 13 3 .333 .386 .573
2020Away .818 128 21 6 15 12 .254 .336 .482
2019Home 1.064 336 71 24 56 11 .328 .402 .662
2019Away .767 320 40 11 29 12 .260 .322 .445
2018Home 1.043 339 50 26 71 11 .306 .366 .678
2018Away .780 317 38 11 37 16 .276 .328 .452
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Story compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.38
 
BB Rate
9.3%
 
K Rate
24.3%
 
BABIP
.354
 
ISO
.230
 
AVG
.289
 
OBP
.355
 
SLG
.519
 
OPS
.874
 
wOBA
.394
 
Exit Velocity
82.4 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
40.1%
 
Barrels/PA
5.9%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Trevor Story
Baseball Draft Kit: Player Values by Position
17 days ago
Jeff Erickson ranks the players at each position for the 2021 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.
Bernie on the Scene: Rockies' Return for Arenado is Uninspiring
20 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff evaluates the prospects sent to Colorado in the Nolan Arenado trade and is unimpressed, to say the least.
Collette Calls: 2021 NL West Bold Predictions
39 days ago
Jason Collette continues his Bold Predictions series with the National League West. Is Will Smith destined to be fantasy's top catcher this year?
Bernie on the Scene: Analyzing NL Offseason Moves
41 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes some key offseason moves in the National League, including the Indians shipping Francisco Lindor to the Mets.
The Z Files: Your Favorites At Six
59 days ago
Todd Zola marvels at the depth and quality available at shortstop and offers some advice on how to construct an offense around an early-round speedster like Trea Turner.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
On the surface, Story's 2019 campaign was much like the previous year and his rookie campaign, making 2017 the outlier. That said, considering the league-wide spike in power and overall offense, perhaps last season was a small step back. This is corroborated by a small dip in xwOBA (an estimation using Statcast metrics). Story's batted-ball profile was a near match to 2018, save for fewer barrels, likely accounting for the drop in xwOBA. Specifically, his GB/LD/FB ratios and hard-hit rate were close to 2018 levels. Not only did Story carry over his improved contact rate, he continued to run, swiping 23 bags, reinforcing a strong floor. Add in Coors Field and decent durability (656 plate appearances each of the past two seasons), the 27-year old is one of the best at a stacked shortstop position. Story warrants first-round consideration and $30-plus in auctions as he contributes across the board.
While 2016 may have been Story's breakout, 2018 was the season everything came together. He hit for a career-high average while greatly reducing his strikeout rate and expanding his power at the plate. The volume of stolen bases was a huge surprise that nobody forecasted in draft season and a bonus. His home-run total went up despite a small drop in his flyball rate. More hard contact allowed his HR/FB to get up to 20% and helped fuel the homer surge. There are two causes for concern moving forward, though: Story had an elbow scare near the end of the season that nearly put him on the surgeon's table, so that bears watching. Secondly, he ended the season with a 64-point split between his actual slugging percentage of .567 and his expected slugging percentage (.503). He is more likely to slide back to 30 homers than to challenge for 40 in 2019.
Story was in the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2016 before a thumb ligament injury ended his season, but he was unable to repeat that success in 2017. He stumbled out of the gates, batting .180/.289/.396 over his first 34 games. Story hit .255 with 18 homers and 67 RBI in 112 games after his return from a shoulder injury in May, but he continued to swing and miss at a high rate, fanning in one-third of his plate appearances over the remainder of the year. The strikeouts are not as much of a problem in today's game, and that's especially true when a player hits the ball as hard as Story does -- his 40.3 percent hard-hit rate ranked 18th among qualified hitters. Story will likely continue to be a batting-average liability with his current approach, even while playing half his games at Coors Field, but his prolific power and splash of speed at the shortstop position give him appeal at what will be a significantly discounted price from a year ago.
Story was given an opportunity in the starting role from Day 1 last season, replacing the suspended Jose Reyes. The rookie took off from the get-go, seemingly tearing down every rookie record in the book. Through the first month of the season, he already had 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and a massive 1.019 OPS. Understandably, he wasn't able to sustain this ridiculously torrid pace, but he managed to put up a .908 OPS, 27 home runs and 72 RBI prior to a thumb injury that cut his season short by two months. Story's 130 strikeouts are a concern, as that number could grow as pitchers figure out his tendencies, and his home/road splits were very different as one would expect for a Coors Field batter (1.086 home OPS vs. .747 road OPS). That being said, Story cemented himself as the shortstop of the future for the Rockies, and he looks to be an excellent source of power at the shortstop position playing half of his games in the thin Colorado air.
Story was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the 2013 season, but his stock crashed to the point that he didn’t crack any industry top-100 lists in 2014 or 2015. That streak will come to a screeching halt this offseason, as Story made a big statement, abusing Double-A and Triple-A pitchers alike. He slashed .279/.350/.514 with 20 home runs and 22 steals (on 25 attempts) in 130 games, splitting time evenly between the two levels. Story remains age appropriate for his level, as he should debut in the majors early on in his age-23 campaign. Jose Reyes appears to stand in Story’s way, but Reyes’ performance was below replacement level in 47 games with Colorado last season, and he has serious off-field issues that could also cut into his availability. Look for Story to be starting every day at shortstop for the Rockies sooner rather than later in 2016, making him a worthy late-round flier in mixed leagues.
Forced to repeat High-A Modesto after striking out in 33 percent of his plate appearances in 2013, Story shined in his second go-around, slashing .332/.436/.582 while showing noticeable growth in his plate discipline. The improvements earned Story a midseason promotion to Double-A Tulsa. Just as was the case in the California League, he scuffled in his initial exposure to the new level. His strikeout rate hiked up to 34.6% and his on-base percentage sank to .302 over 237 plate appearances, dimming the impact of the rare power/speed package he offers at shortstop. Story’s ongoing contact issues leave scouts divided on whether or not he’ll become a viable big league regular, but it could simply be a matter of the 22-year-old needing more time to adjust to advanced pitching. The Rockies are of no mind to rush Story to the majors while Troy Tulowitzki is around, so he’ll have ample opportunity to refine his swing at the Double-A level and assert his standing as the team’s top middle infield prospect.
Story’s age-19 season was a promising one, as he exhibited a nice combination of power (18 homers), speed (15 steals) and on-base skills (.361 OBP). Story is not without a few flaws, however. It should be noted that his numbers came in the friendly hitting confines of the South Atlantic League, and his high strikeout totals could become more problematic as he advances in the minors. Story will likely move on to another hitters’ paradise in the California League this season, so it is possible we will not know the full extent of his batting skills until he reaches the upper levels of the minors.
More Fantasy News
Smacks 10th homer
SSColorado Rockies
September 9, 2020
Story went 1-for-4 with a solo home run Wednesday against the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Steals in three straight games
SSColorado Rockies
September 9, 2020
Story went 1-for-4 with an RBI, a run scored and a stolen base in Tuesday's 14-5 loss to the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Leading majors in steals
SSColorado Rockies
September 7, 2020
Story went 2-for-4 with a stolen base and a double in Monday's 1-0 loss to the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Pair of steals Sunday
SSColorado Rockies
September 6, 2020
Story went 0-for-3 with two stolen bases and two walks.
ANALYSIS
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Tallies ninth stolen base
SSColorado Rockies
September 2, 2020
Story went 3-for-4 with a double, a run, an RBI, a stolen base and a walk during Wednesday's 9-6 win over San Francisco.
ANALYSIS
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