Brad Miller
Brad Miller
31-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
Philadelphia Phillies
2021 Fantasy Outlook
In recent seasons, Miller has developed a clear and stable skill profile centered around hitting right-handed pitching hard. He saw an increased role per game in 2020, nearly matching his 2019 plate appearances in the shortened season. Miller has proven to be a strong source of power in the past two campaigns by posting ISO of .305 and .218, respectively, backed by strong barrel rates of 12.8% and 13.4%. That leaves little doubt that the ball jumps off Miller's bat. The problem is his fit in the modern game. While his defensive metrics in recent seasons have improved, he has been regarded as a subpar defender at multiple positions across the diamond for the majority of his career. The free agent fits best as a strong-side platoon designated hitter, and not many teams are in the market for such a player entering his age-31 season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#594
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Phillies in February of 2021.
Swats three-run homer
3BPhiladelphia Phillies
May 4, 2021
Miller went 1-for-3 with a three-run home run Tuesday against the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
Miller made his lone hit of the contest count when he smacked a home run off southpaw Eric Lauer to right field. With the Phillies missing Jean Segura (quadriceps), Miller has gotten more regular playing time and now has three long balls on the season. However, Segura just began a rehab assignment, and his return will likely cut significantly into Miller's presence in the lineup moving forward.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
2
1
2
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+23%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+42%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+27%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+59%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .708 52 10 3 9 0 .200 .308 .400
Since 2019vs Right .869 340 46 20 49 3 .261 .347 .522
2021vs Left 1.067 10 3 1 3 0 .333 .400 .667
2021vs Right .753 41 6 2 5 0 .282 .317 .436
2020vs Left .653 20 4 1 1 0 .176 .300 .353
2020vs Right .828 151 17 6 24 1 .240 .364 .464
2019vs Left .589 22 3 1 5 0 .158 .273 .316
2019vs Right .938 148 23 12 20 2 .274 .338 .600
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+11%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+26%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+30%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+10%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .817 169 27 9 22 2 .238 .355 .462
Since 2019Away .903 213 29 14 36 1 .272 .343 .560
2021Home .749 34 8 2 6 0 .273 .294 .455
2021Away .945 17 1 1 2 0 .333 .412 .533
2020Home .722 69 9 1 4 1 .218 .377 .345
2020Away .941 92 12 6 21 0 .260 .370 .571
2019Home .945 66 10 6 12 1 .236 .364 .582
2019Away .863 104 16 7 13 1 .273 .308 .556
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Brad Miller compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.13
 
BB Rate
4.3%
 
K Rate
34.0%
 
BABIP
.423
 
ISO
.200
 
AVG
.311
 
OBP
.340
 
SLG
.511
 
OPS
.852
 
wOBA
.372
 
Exit Velocity
85.4 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
37.9%
 
Barrels/PA
7.0%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Miller failed to stick with the Rays or Brewers in 2018, and his 2019 campaign didn't get off to a great start either, as he was DFA'd in mid-April by the Indians and failed to make it out of Triple-A for the Yankees. Acquired by the Phillies in mid-June, he was a major-leaguer the rest of the way and looked quite good in a part-time role. He hit .263/.331/.610 with an impressive 12 homers in 130 plate appearances. Despite a 30-HR season in 2016 he'd never displayed that kind of power before, slugging .419 for his career. Still, he showed enough to prove that he still deserves a roster spot. His ability to play all around the diamond makes him a useful bench player. In the right circumstances, he could earn the large side of a platoon due to his career 110 wRC+ against righties. Don't expect that level of power to remain, but Miller could still be playable if at-bats are available.
Miller opened the 2018 season on the strong side of a platoon at first base, but he was designated for assignment by the Rays in June after hitting .256/.322/.429 with five homers across 48 games. The 29-year-old was subsequently traded to Milwaukee, where he hit just .230/.288/.378 with two homers in 27 games before being cut loose at the end of July. Miller failed to latch on elsewhere after parting ways with the Brewers, finishing the year with a .248/.311/.413 line and career-worst 32.7% strikeout rate in just 75 games. He's now been a below-average hitter in each of the past two seasons as measured by wRC+, and while he was an above-average defender at second base in 2018 (7.3 UZR/150), he isn't known for his glove. As such, it's difficult to imagine the veteran will find steady work in the majors in 2019.
After delivering an unexpected 30-homer season in 2016, Miller came crashing back to earth in 2017, slugging a career-low .337 and hitting a measly .201 thanks to a career-worst 27 percent strikeout rate. An abdominal injury in May put him on the DL for the first time last season, and he made a quick return to the shelf thanks to a groin injury he suffered after his return in early June. The Rays deployed Miller as their primary second baseman when he was healthy, causing him to lose eligibility at shortstop for 2018. It's entirely possible that the injuries are to blame for the magnitude of his decline, as it was revealed in October that he underwent core surgery. Most likely, he'll be pushed for playing time in spring training and throughout the season, and it's difficult to rely on him for anything more than a .240 batting average and low double-digit home run total given his overall body of work over five big-league campaigns.
Miller exploded for a career season in 2016, posting personal bests in doubles (29), triples (six), homers (30) and RBI (81). He also handled a move away from his shortstop position graciously after the acquisition of Matt Duffy, and he heads into the spring as the starting first baseman. He saw encouraging bumps in several other metrics as well, including HR/FB (20.4 percent), which he nearly doubled over the previous season, and hard contact rate, which he raised from 30.3 percent to 35.1 percent. It will be intriguing to see if the power surge was simply an outlier or a harbinger of things to come for Miller, who'd previously topped out at 11 homers in 2015. It's notable that his strikeout rate also saw a rise in 2016, with his 24.8 percent figure last season representing a career high, so Miller has room for offering even greater fantasy production if he can make even just a slight improvement in his contact rate.
Miller still strikes out too much (20.3% rate last year) and doesn't make good contact (77 percent), but he turned in a promising year at the plate last season. His 37 extra-base hits ranked ninth among AL shortstops while his 13 stolen bases ranked sixth. Most of his damage came against right-handers as he found himself in a platoon much of the season, posting an .803 OPS against righties vs. a .513 OPS against left-handers. His biggest weakness, though, is in the field. So much so, the Mariners transitioned him to the outfield when his defense at shortstop finally became too much of a liability. He wasn't very good as an outfielder, either. Nevertheless, he gets a fresh start this season as he was shipped to Tampa Bay in November, where he'll return to shortstop. Unless he figures out lefties quickly, he could find himself in a platoon again, but the Rays will likely have more patience with his defense.
Miller entered last season with much optimism after a promising rookie campaign that saw him knock 25 XBH in 76 games. He won the starting shortstop job in spring over the since-departed Nick Franklin but couldn't carry that over to the regular season. He was under the Mendoza Line well into June until a two-week hot streak dug him out of that hole, barely. But he quickly returned to form and by late July lost his starting job to callup Chris Taylor. After a solid strikeout rate (15.5 percent) as a rookie, Miller couldn't stop whiffing last year. His strikeout rate spiked to 23.2% while his contact rate dropped to 74 percent. In 61 more at-bats than in 2013, he posted just four more extra-base hits. He will have to win the starting job in spring training again, assuming the Mariners don't upgrade at shortstop before then. Taylor has a better glove, but Miller has a much more potent bat, potentially at least.
Miller began last season at Double-A Jackson, was promoted to Triple-A Tacoma by late May and a month later found himself in Seattle for good. The quick rise was partly due to his crushing both of his minor-league stops and partly due to the Mariners' desperation for a shortstop who could produce more than the all-glove, no-bat Brendan Ryan. The left-handed Miller held his own as the team's leadoff hitter, flashing league-average power with a .153 ISO and mirroring his solid minor-league contact and strikeout rates. His walk rate dipped dramatically to 7.2 percent, which caused his OBP to take a big hit, however. He'll look for improvement in that area in 2014, as he will with his defense at shortstop, which is a work in progress.
Seattle's 2011 second-round pick, Miller has excellent plate discipline, though he does not project for much power. He handled High-A High Desert last season (.931 OPS) before a promotion to Double-A Jackson where his bat proved not to be just a product of the hitter-friendly California League. He could end up moving from shortstop where he struggled with range and errors last season. But the Mariners are getting quite a backlog at second base (Dustin Ackely, Nick Franklin), so a position switch isn't necessarily a given even though that's the conventional wisdom.
More Fantasy News
Delivers two-run homer
3BPhiladelphia Phillies
April 28, 2021
Miller went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run and a walk Wednesday against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Back in lineup
3BPhiladelphia Phillies
April 26, 2021
Miller (neck) will lead off and play left field Monday against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting again Sunday
3BPhiladelphia Phillies
Neck
April 25, 2021
Miller (neck) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Rockies, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Available off bench
3BPhiladelphia Phillies
Neck
April 24, 2021
MIller (neck) remains out of the lineup Saturday against the Rockies but is expected to be available off the bench, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Dealing with stiff neck
3BPhiladelphia Phillies
Neck
April 23, 2021
Miller was scratched from the lineup for Friday's game against Colorado due to neck stiffness, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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