Daniel Vogelbach Fantasy News & Stats

Daniel Vogelbach

26-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Seattle Mariners

2019 Stats

AVG

.251

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2019 Fantasy Outlook

Vogelbach broke camp with the Mariners thanks to an impressive spring training, and he saw regular playing time between first base and DH over the first month of the season while Nelson Cruz and Ryon Healy dealt with injuries. The 26-year-old failed to capitalize, hitting just .204/.317/.352 with a 33% strikeout rate in 63 plate appearances, and was sent back to the minors at the end of April. Vogelbach spent the rest of the season shuttling between Triple-A and the majors, excelling with Tacoma but struggling during his limited opportunities with the big club despite an improved approach (6:5 BB:K in his final 39 plate appearances). He continued to show platoon splits, posting a .274 OPS vs. lefties (.745 OPS against LHP at Triple-A). He's out of options and should finally get an extended look against big-league pitching this year, assuming the Mariners can unload Edwin Encarnacion to a contender. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#693

ADP

Overall

First Baseman

Add To Watchlist

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'0"

Weight 250

DOB 12/17/1992

Drafted 2nd Rd 2011

Slugs 18th homer

1BSeattle Mariners

June 19, 2019

Vogelbach went 1-for-2 with a walk, a home run and two RBI in Wednesday's 8-2 win over the Royals.

ANALYSIS
He launched a solo shot in the first inning, going back-to-back with Domingo Santana. Vogelbach continues to get on base at an impressive clip -- he's got an 18:15 BB:K through 18 games in June -- and on the year, the 26-year-old is slashing .256/.396/.543 with 18 homers and 42 RBI in 69 contests.

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Batting Stats

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2017

+109%

OPS vs RHP

2019

+104%

OPS vs RHP

2018

+197%

OPS vs RHP

2017

+9%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2017vs Left	.450	92	10	2	9	0	.123	.228	.222
Since 2017vs Right	.939	332	43	20	50	0	.271	.404	.535
2019vs Left	.509	65	8	2	9	0	.140	.246	.263
2019vs Right	1.036	226	36	16	35	0	.287	.429	.607
2018vs Left	.274	23	2	0	0	0	.050	.174	.100
2018vs Right	.815	79	7	4	13	0	.254	.367	.448
2017vs Left	.500	4	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250
2017vs Right	.546	27	0	0	2	0	.208	.296	.250
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2017

+10%

OPS on Road

2019

+14%

OPS on Road

2018

+33%

OPS on Road

2017

+64%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2017Home	.784	179	21	9	25	0	.225	.341	.444
Since 2017Away	.861	245	32	13	34	0	.246	.384	.477
2019Home	.848	135	17	7	22	0	.243	.370	.477
2019Away	.968	156	27	11	22	0	.258	.404	.565
2018Home	.574	39	4	2	3	0	.143	.231	.343
2018Away	.766	63	5	2	10	0	.250	.381	.385
2017Home	.800	5	0	0	0	0	.400	.400	.400
2017Away	.487	26	0	0	2	0	.174	.269	.217
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Stat Review

How does Daniel Vogelbach compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against this season's data (min 100 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

BB/K

0.82

BB Rate

18.2%

K Rate

22.3%

BABIP

.266

ISO

.272

AVG

.251

OBP

.388

SLG

.523

OPS

.912

wOBA

.395

Exit Velocity

89.5 mph

Hard Hit Rate

41.3%

Barrels/PA

7.0%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

For several years now there has been a push among fantasy owners to "Free Dan Vogelbach," but the reality that he may not fit on a big-league roster is finally starting to sink in. He simply can't play anywhere in the field, so he would need to get starts at DH, and in order for an MLB team to roster a designated hitter who can't play the field, that player would need to be a dominant hitter against big-league pitching. Vogelbach, who is entering his age-25 season, has proven to be at least 20 percent better than the average Triple-A hitter over 258 games at that level. But while he has plus power, it's not special power, and while the jolly lefty mashes righties, he is significantly worse against lefties. So we have a DH-only slugger who may need a platoon partner. That profile just isn't going to win over many modern front offices. Look for him to once again start the year at Triple-A, and keep in mind, he will be out of minor-league options after the 2018 season.

Opportunity is the prevailing force in rotisserie baseball, and now that he's out of Chicago, Vogelbach has a chance to work his way into fantasy prominence. Vogelbach was used sparingly down the stretch in 2016 after being traded to Seattle, but as a 23-year-old Vogelbach beat up on Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .923 OPS, 23 homers and 96 RBI while striking out just four more times (101) than he walked (97) in 563 plate appearances. Safeco Field still skews favorably for pitchers in terms of runs scored, but it was a top-six park for home runs in 2016, so even in a platoon role, Vogelbach could gain and maintain fantasy value outside of AL-only formats. He failed to earn a spot out of spring training but Vogelbach should at least be owned in most keeper leagues with a much clearer path to playing time than he had in Chicago.

Vogelbach came out of the gate on fire last year, slashing .460/.571/.780 with three home runs, 11 runs, 12 RBI, and 13 walks in his first 14 games for Double-A Tennessee. Unfortunately a couple of injuries - which may have sapped his power - slowed him down considerably, and his final line with the Smokies was rather disappointing. True, he'd be an asset in OBP leagues - he's topped 60 walks in each of his last three years - but most look at him and expect him to be a big power-hitting first baseman. He's still just 23, but with Anthony Rizzo blocking him in Chicago, we see a DH job in his future. Don't be surprised to see the Cubs trade him.

Vogelbach is the Cubs' top first baseman in the minors, but it would be a shock to see him overtake Anthony Rizzo as the starter at the big league level at any point. There are some appealing items in his skill set, as he can draw a walk and hit for some power, but he doesn't seem to have anything that truly stands out, and his defensive limitations might make him a future DH. He should spend most of the 2015 season with Double-A Tennessee as a 22-year-old, but unless Rizzo suffers a serious injury, Vogelbach could be trade bait, especially to an AL-team that values on-base percentage more than defense.

Vogelbach is not just some run-of-the-mill slugger. Last year's 73:89 BB:K ratio contributed to a .375 on-base percentage between Low-A Kane County and High-A Daytona. While he only hit 19 home runs in 483 at-bats, he's done all that as a 20-year-old, and certainly projects as a power hitter in the majors. Anthony Rizzo is blocking him at first base, but in two years, who knows? Tuck him away, especially in deep OBP leagues.

Drafted 68th overall in 2011 for his elite power, the 5-foot-11, 255-pound Vogelbach did not disappoint last year, slugging .686 in 102 rookie-ball at-bats and .608 in 143 Low-A ones. He also hit .324 and .322, respectively, at those stops and showed good plate discipline, to boot. Expect the 20-year-old Vogelbach to get a shot at High-A and perhaps Double-A this year, though so long as he remains in the Cubs organization, he's blocked by Anthony Rizzo at first base. Given Vogelbach's frame, we very much doubt a position change is an option.

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