Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
26-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Boston Red Sox
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Bogaerts benefited from improved health in 2018, though he ended up playing the fewest games in any of his full seasons in the majors. The ankle injury that shelved him for most of April didn’t inhibit him at the plate once he returned, unlike the hand issue that sapped his power in the second half of 2017. While Bogaerts may have scaled back his aggressiveness on the bases, he made up for it by setting new personal bests in home runs and RBI, with the increased slugging output supported by major rises in both his barrel (7.1%) and hard-hit (41.5%) rates. The improved batted-ball profile should provide further reason to invest in Bogaerts with confidence as he enters his age-26 campaign. Even if last year's power gains are more of an outlier, Bogaerts will retain a high floor thanks to his strong contact skills and his slotting in a Boston lineup that brings back most of the core pieces from an offense that led MLB in runs in 2018. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the Red Sox in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Agrees to deal with Boston
SSBoston Red Sox
January 11, 2019
Bogaerts signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the Red Sox on Friday, avoiding arbitration, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Bogaerts saw a substantial raise from his $7.05 million salary a season ago, and he earned it by more than doubling his home-run total (10 to 23) and driving in 103 RBI over 136 ballgames. He'll undoubtedly begin the 2019 campaign as the starting shortstop for the defending World Series champions after turning in stellar numbers a year ago.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
Since 2016vs Left .822 403 61 9 45 7 .289 .390 .433
Since 2016vs Right .803 1531 220 45 209 29 .285 .344 .460
2018vs Left .809 132 16 1 15 1 .269 .402 .407
2018vs Right .901 448 56 22 88 7 .294 .348 .553
2017vs Left .777 126 19 2 10 3 .294 .373 .404
2017vs Right .739 509 75 8 52 12 .268 .336 .403
2016vs Left .873 145 26 6 20 3 .304 .393 .480
2016vs Right .785 574 89 15 69 10 .292 .347 .438
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
OPS at Home
OPS at Home
OPS at Home
OPS at Home
Since 2016Home .869 968 155 30 139 15 .310 .374 .495
Since 2016Away .745 966 126 24 115 21 .261 .332 .413
2018Home .967 283 37 15 63 3 .314 .375 .592
2018Away .800 297 35 8 40 5 .264 .347 .453
2017Home .765 327 51 4 28 7 .293 .352 .413
2017Away .726 308 43 6 34 8 .251 .334 .391
2016Home .889 358 67 11 48 5 .323 .394 .495
2016Away .718 361 48 10 41 8 .267 .319 .399
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Stat Review
How does Xander Bogaerts compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Bogaerts' batted-ball profile raised concerns heading into the 2017 season, and those concerns proved to be justified as he produced at a below-league-average level at the plate (96 wRC+) in his age-25 season. Granted, Bogaerts was playing through a hand injury for most of the second half and may have altered his swing mechanics. He continued to put the ball on the ground at a high rate -- roughly half the time -- and his flyball rate fell to just over 30 percent, leading to a precipitous drop in power from his career-high mark of 21 homers in 2016. He walks at a good clip and doesn't strike out much, and there is value in a 10-15 player at shortstop in any format, but right now Bogaerts is more of a second- or third-tier option at the position rather than the fantasy building block many thought he'd be already at this stage of his career.
The progression of Bogaerts took another step forward in 2016. In 2015, he earned a Silver Slugger award in the American League, but he'd hit just seven homers and had an unsustainable BABIP (.372). The expected power hadn't yet developed and we were curious to see what his numbers would look like when BABIP corrected, which it did in 2016 (.335). The results were encouraging. The 24-year-old's power bat arrived, belting 21 homers with a .152 ISO and he bumped his walk rate to 8.1 percent. Slashing a respectable .294/.356/.446, Bogaerts was a first-time All-Star and earned a second Silver Slugger award. The advanced metrics indicate more runs created and better plate discipline, but it wasn't all good in 2016. There was a continuous fall from his season high .529 slugging and .934 OPS on June 11, to .392/.717 from that point on. Bogaerts is getting closer to a breakout year, which will come when he eliminates the prolonged slumps.
Ever since Bogaerts made his debut in 2013, the baseball world has been waiting for a breakout star to emerge. It didn’t happen in 2014 — he struggled for much of the season, and was moved between shortstop and third base as questions about his defense arose. But a strong finish in September suggested his full potential could be realized in 2015. As it turned out, Bogaerts only tapped into his potential last season, hitting .320/.355/.421 in 156 games while going from a -2.7 UZR in 2014 to 1.0 in 2015 in a full season at shortstop, suggesting he can stick at the position for the foreseeable future. Some of his hitting success was due to an elevated BABIP (.372, sixth in MLB), but even with a little regression cooked in he projects to hit for a high average again this season. The big question is what his power ceiling is, and when he will be ready to reach it. He certainly won’t come cheap for owners who gamble on the power surge coming in 2016.
Bogaerts entered the 2014 season with high expectations coming off his preternatural contributions to Boston's championship team in 2013. The organization's top prospect opened the season as the team's starting shortstop, but questions about his defense emerged early. Despite that, he was one of the few players hitting in a sorry lineup through April and May. With the Red Sox needing any kind of a spark, they signed Stephen Drew and forced Bogaerts to shift to third base. This chain of events was followed by a summer stretch in which Bogaerts' offense went idle. He hit just .161 from June through August and struck out in 26.5% of his plate appearances, compared to 20.5% the rest of the season. The position change was cited by some as the trigger for the drop-off, but it was more likely a result of pitchers catching up to him and feeding him a steady diet of sliders. He eventually made adjustments and had a strong September, but is still unclear what happened to his ability to work the count -- his walk rate dropped from 11.2% in April/May to 3.8% his plate appearances after June. The plan calls for Bogaerts to start at shortstop in 2015 and he should stay there all season with free-agent addition Pablo Sandoval manning the hot corner.
Bogaerts played at three levels of the organization in 2013, including the final few months in Boston, where he earned regular playing time in the playoffs and World Series. He's the unquestioned top prospect in the organization and will have a full-time role when the upcoming campaign opens. Up until last season, Bogaerts was exclusively a shortstop, but the Red Sox had him train at third base next to Stephen Drew. It's presumed that he'll be the everyday shortstop with Drew out of the picture this year, though the Red Sox are interested in adding an infielder to the left side. His growth as a hitter in 2013 was displayed by increased patience and a knack for making in-game adjustments at the plate. The one knock on Bogaerts as a hitter was his aggressiveness, but he incorporated patience as part of his hitting plan last season, boosting his walk rate from 0.34 per game in 2012 to last year's 0.53. As we saw in the postseason, he drew some big walks in Boston's World Series run.
Bogaerts moves to the head of the organization's prospect class after a two-level year, in which he bashed 20 homers and hit .307/.373/.523 at High-A Salem and Double-A Portland. The adjustments in approach he put into practice at Low-A helped prepare him for Double-A, where he did not experience the typical struggles of a young hitter facing advanced-level pitching. He is on the fast track to Boston and will work at the major league camp during spring training. The one thing that may alter his trajectory is a position shift. Bogaerts is currently a shortstop, but he is young and his body is still developing. A position switch is not out of the question, especially if Bogaerts' power stroke continues to develop. It is not hard to envision a start at Double-A; a mid-year promotion to Triple-A; followed by a September callup.
Bogaerts made a significant splash into professional baseball in 2011, bypassing short-season ball and getting a mid-season placement at Low-A Greenville, where he hit 16 homers in 265 at-bats. The power stroke is there; he just needs to learn how to better manage his plate appearances. He's playing shortstop, and at just 19, the organization will leave him where he is for now, but his body projects to add more mass and he could find a position switch somewhere down the line. Look for him to continue to develop a plate approach at Greenville with a promotion to High-A Salem likely. He's a good name to stash away on your prospect charts.
Bogaerts, 18, was signed as an international free agent in 2009 and played in the Dominican Summer League in 2010. He's a shortstop now, but projects to add more muscle and may find himself moving to third base. He's very raw in terms of pitch recognition and plate discipline, but the Red Sox like his swing mechanics. He'll likely stay behind in extended spring training before getting a peek at Short-Season Lowell in June.
More Fantasy News
Homers for 23rd time
SSBoston Red Sox
September 30, 2018
Bogaerts went 2-for-3 with a two-run home run and a double in Sunday's 10-2 win over the Yankees.
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Absent from Saturday's lineup
SSBoston Red Sox
September 29, 2018
Bogaerts is out of the lineup versus the Yankees on Saturday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
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Sits out for Game 2 of twin bill
SSBoston Red Sox
September 26, 2018
Bogaerts is not in the lineup for Game 2 of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Orioles, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.
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Bats cleanup Monday
SSBoston Red Sox
September 25, 2018
Bogaerts went 2-for-4 with an RBI in Monday's 6-2 win over the Orioles.
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Remains in lineup
SSBoston Red Sox
September 24, 2018
Bogaerts (shoulder) is starting Monday against the Orioles, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports.
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