Jesus Aguilar
Jesus Aguilar
30-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Miami Marlins
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Aguilar's forgettable 2019 campaign, in which he hit just .236/.325/.389 with 12 homers, made his 2018 breakout look like a fluke, so he was very much an afterthought during draft season. Those who wound up with him anyway were quite pleased with the results, as he finished last season with eight homers in 51 games and a .277/.352/.457 slash line. He didn't come close to matching his .539 slugging percentage from 2018, though playing in Miami rather than Milwaukee was certainly a factor there. He actually didn't make any louder contact than he did during his poor 2019 campaign, with his exit velocity dropping negligibly from 89.4 mph to 89.3 mph, though he made more contact than ever before, cutting his strikeout rate for the third straight season down to 18.5%. If those gains hold, he should remain a perfectly playable lower-tier option at first base, especially if the Marlins remain competitive this year. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#389
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.3 million contract with the Marlins in December of 2020.
On bench Wednesday
1BMiami Marlins
June 16, 2021
Aguilar isn't starting Wednesday against the Cardinals, Craig Mish of SportsGrid.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Aguilar has reached base safely in each of the last 11 games. He's hit .400 with two home runs, three doubles, nine RBI and three runs during his recent hot streak, but Lewin Diaz will take over at first base and bat fifth in Wednesday's series finale.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
11
28
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
6
14
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+1%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+3%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+24%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+4%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .776 272 25 9 27 0 .259 .349 .427
Since 2019vs Right .767 576 68 23 107 0 .258 .328 .438
2021vs Left .786 70 4 2 9 0 .250 .357 .429
2021vs Right .807 201 19 10 41 0 .275 .323 .484
2020vs Left .956 59 10 3 5 0 .321 .390 .566
2020vs Right .770 152 21 5 29 0 .267 .342 .427
2019vs Left .695 143 11 4 13 0 .236 .329 .366
2019vs Right .726 223 28 8 37 0 .236 .323 .403
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+34%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+36%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+51%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+21%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .643 371 32 6 46 0 .227 .305 .339
Since 2019Away .862 482 61 26 88 0 .280 .357 .505
2021Home .659 110 5 0 19 0 .255 .318 .340
2021Away .897 161 18 12 31 0 .278 .342 .556
2020Home .616 83 10 1 10 0 .219 .301 .315
2020Away .931 133 21 7 24 0 .313 .383 .548
2019Home .646 178 17 5 17 0 .213 .298 .348
2019Away .779 188 22 7 33 0 .258 .351 .428
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Stat Review
How does Jesus Aguilar compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.51
 
BB Rate
8.9%
 
K Rate
17.3%
 
BABIP
.280
 
ISO
.202
 
AVG
.269
 
OBP
.332
 
SLG
.471
 
OPS
.803
 
wOBA
.343
 
Exit Velocity
83.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
36.4%
 
Barrels/PA
7.1%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Jesus Aguilar
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
9 days ago
The Mets have really been hurt by injuries this season, but Jan Levine sees one of their regular contributors returning by the end of the month.
FanDuel MLB: Thursday Targets
12 days ago
Kevin Payne kicks off his Thursday FanDuel recommendations with Nationals ace Max Scherzer against the Giants.
FanDuel MLB: Friday Targets
53 days ago
Chris Bennett delivers his recommendations for Friday's FanDuel slate, turning to a Yankees stack against Detroit.
MLB FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
54 days ago
Jason Shebilske analyzes the top waiver-wire options for the week, including the Mets' J.D. Davis, who is swinging a hot bat since returning from injury.
The Z Files: The Fallacy of Stabilization and an Early Look at Home Runs
73 days ago
Todd Zola offers some thoughts on early-season trends, including the home run surge led by Nick Castellanos and the Reds.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Aguilar took a big step back from his breakout power year in Milwaukee and found himself traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline, where he was stuck starting against lefties with the Rays riding the Ji-Man Choi Express against righties. He will have another opportunity to carve out significant playing time after the rebuilding Marlins claimed him off waivers, but he will still have to earn at-bats against righties. The quality of his contact suffered last year, and perhaps that was due to the inconsistent playing time, as that was not the case in Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018. One could be interested in going back to the well for Aguilar one more time given what he has done in recent history and the lack of quality fantasy depth at first base. It should be noted that Aguilar overperformed his expected stats in the seasons that give us hope, so that two-year run may end up representing his career peak.
It seemed Aguilar would struggle to see at-bats when the 2018 season kicked off, but when fellow first baseman Eric Thames injured his thumb he became the Brewers' regular first baseman and never looked back, holding down the job the rest of the way. Aguilar played so well in the first half he earned an All-Star berth and was on the fringes of the MVP conversation, but things nose-dived in the second half, and he posted just an average .760 OPS after the break. When it was all said and done, Aguilar still finished top-5 in the NL in both home runs and RBI. That will make Aguilar the top option at first base for the Brewers in 2019, and if he holds onto the job, expect him to again have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs with Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich both getting on base at a high clip atop the order.
An offseason waiver claim by the Brewers, Aguilar faced an uphill battle to make the Opening Day roster, but he earned the backup first base job thanks to a sizzling spring training. He kept hitting once the regular season began, and did so for much of the first half, tallying 24 extra-base hits to head into the All-Star break with a .911 OPS. He finished the year with 16 long balls in just 279 at-bats, but his luck on balls in play really dipped from .383 in the first half to .262 in the second half, resulting in a .289 OBP after the Midsummer Classic. Aguilar showed his power potential last year, but as a part-time player who only plays one position, he figures to face competition for his roster spot. Should he wind up in a situation where he sees regular at-bats, however, his power potential could make him a useful fantasy option in standard formats for that stretch of time.
For the second straight year, Aguilar's batting average at Triple-A Columbus tumbled, this time reaching a sub-.250 mark. Although his batting average and K-rate hovered around their recent marks of 10 and 20 percent, respectively, his BABIP slid from .305 to .255. However, his regression in terms of BABIP may be justified, as there was a part of Aguilar's game that took a tremendous step forward in 2016, that being power. Over 137 games, Aguilar knocked 30 home runs and 26 doubles, giving him a .472 slugging percentage. While this was a large improvement for the 26-year-old, Aguilar's chances of making it up to the majors for an extended stay with the Brewers in 2017 are likely dependent upon whether or not Eric Thames can hold onto an everyday role at first base. If Thames falters, the door may be open for Aguilar to an impact at first base as a below average hitter with a high ceiling in terms of power.
Aguilar spent most of 2015 at Triple-A Columbus, logging 131 games for the Clippers sandwiched around a couple of short stints with the Tribe. He didn't take the step forward that many in the organization were hoping for in his second extended look at Triple-A, slashing .267/.332/.439 with 29 doubles and 19 homers in 131 games versus a .304/.395/.511 line with 31 doubles and 19 homers in 118 games in 2014. His walk rate dipped to 8.2 percent, down from 12.8 percent in 2014, though his strikeout rate remained largely unchanged at 20.1 percent. He's locked into a 1B/DH role, a spot comfortably occupied by Carlos Santana (on a club-friendly deal for two more seasons) and offseason signee Mike Napoli. The Indians could keep Aguilar as organizational depth, or move him before he's tagged as a Quadruple-A player, although the word might already be out on that front.
Aguilar is a sizable right-handed first baseman whose bat will have to force him into a lineup because he’s never going to be confused as someone with a good glove. He has hit .276/.357/.453 throughout his minor league career including a lofty .304/.395/.511 line in Triple-A in 2014. The large righty may be penalized for his defense and being right-handed at a predominately left-handed position, but that should not make him a platoon guy. Aguilar has shown little in the way of platoon splits in the minors as his ability to hit for average and power was nearly identical versus lefties and righties. He's an interesting power speculation in deep AL-only leagues, but things became more crowded in Cleveland with the addition of Brandon Moss in December.
Aguilar continues to climb through the upper levels of the minors, producing well enough in 2013 to earn a 40-man roster spot and subsequent protection from the Rule 5 draft. After a solid, albeit unspectacular, campaign at Double-A Akron as a 23-year-old last season, Aguilar piled up a .306/.364/.556 line with 12 homers, 35 RBI and a 15:20 BB:K over 160 at-bats during a 40-game stretch in the Venezuelan Winter League. In addition to showing more desirable production at the plate for a corner infielder, Aguilar was given time at third base during the winter due to injuries on his offseason club. It remains to be seen if the Indians will continue giving him time at third base to push Lonnie Chisenhall, but it's worth keeping an eye on how he's deployed during spring training to see if a move across the diamond materializes.
Aguilar still hasn't flashed the power potential you might expect from a guy his size (6-foot-3, 255), but he'll get some extra attention in an organization lacking in power prospects. He'll have to hit to contribute, however, as he's a mess defensively, and it remains to be seen how he'll adjust as he moves up the minor league ranks. His swing is exploitable at times, and he's only seen limited time at Double-A thus far. It's a crucial year for his development to see if he can begin to translate his physical abilities into performance on the field.
More Fantasy News
Two hits, two RBI against Rockies
1BMiami Marlins
June 9, 2021
Aguilar went 2-for-3 with a double and two RBI in Tuesday's win over the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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Knocks 12th homer
1BMiami Marlins
June 6, 2021
Aguilar went 2-for-3 with a solo home run and a sacrifice fly in Sunday's 3-1 win over Pittsburgh.
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Records four hits
1BMiami Marlins
June 6, 2021
Aguilar went 4-for-6 with a a solo home run, an additional RBI and an additional run in Saturday's loss to the Pirates.
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Day off Friday
1BMiami Marlins
June 4, 2021
Aguilar is not in the lineup Friday at Pittsburgh, Joe Frisaro of ManOnSecondBaseball.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Ends power drought
1BMiami Marlins
June 3, 2021
Aguilar went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in Wednesday's 6-5 loss to the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
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