Jesus Aguilar News

Jesus Aguilar

30-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Miami Marlins

2020 Stats

AVG

.277

RBI

2021 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2021 Fantasy Outlook

Aguilar's forgettable 2019 campaign, in which he hit just .236/.325/.389 with 12 homers, made his 2018 breakout look like a fluke, so he was very much an afterthought during draft season. Those who wound up with him anyway were quite pleased with the results, as he finished last season with eight homers in 51 games and a .277/.352/.457 slash line. He didn't come close to matching his .539 slugging percentage from 2018, though playing in Miami rather than Milwaukee was certainly a factor there. He actually didn't make any louder contact than he did during his poor 2019 campaign, with his exit velocity dropping negligibly from 89.4 mph to 89.3 mph, though he made more contact than ever before, cutting his strikeout rate for the third straight season down to 18.5%. If those gains hold, he should remain a perfectly playable lower-tier option at first base, especially if the Marlins remain competitive this year. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

#324

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 277

DOB 6/30/1990

Born Maracay, Venezuela

College None

Drafted 2007 CLE

Fighting for playing time at 1B

1BMiami Marlins

February 23, 2021

Aguilar is expected to split time at first base with Garrett Cooper to begin the season, Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald reports.

ANALYSIS
"In general, we feel like we are going to get both of those guys a lot of at-bats with a combination of first base and outfield," manager Don Mattingly said Monday. "Days off for different guys. We want both of these guys in the lineup as much as possible." Aguilar rebounded from a disappointing 2019 to post a .277/.352/.457 slash line in 51 games last season, but Cooper was very productive with his opportunities as well. As a result, it might take a trade, or the last-minute re-introduction of the DH to the National League, for either one to see anything close to a full-time role, even before considering the potential presence of prospect Lewin Diaz in the mix.

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Batting Stats

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2020

2019

2018

2017

2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2018

+3%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+24%

OPS vs LHP

2019

+4%

OPS vs RHP

2018

+6%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2018vs Left	.839	355	43	16	39	0	.270	.361	.479
Since 2018vs Right	.814	788	107	39	153	0	.261	.336	.477
2020vs Left	.956	59	10	3	5	0	.321	.390	.566
2020vs Right	.770	152	21	5	29	0	.267	.342	.427
2019vs Left	.695	143	11	4	13	0	.236	.329	.366
2019vs Right	.726	223	28	8	37	0	.236	.323	.403
2018vs Left	.929	153	22	9	21	0	.282	.379	.550
2018vs Right	.876	413	58	26	87	0	.271	.341	.535
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2018

+14%

OPS on Road

2020

+51%

OPS on Road

2019

+21%

OPS on Road

2018

+2%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2018Home	.764	539	64	24	86	0	.245	.321	.443
Since 2018Away	.869	609	86	31	106	0	.279	.363	.506
2020Home	.616	83	10	1	10	0	.219	.301	.315
2020Away	.931	133	21	7	24	0	.313	.383	.548
2019Home	.646	178	17	5	17	0	.213	.298	.348
2019Away	.779	188	22	7	33	0	.258	.351	.428
2018Home	.883	278	37	18	59	0	.273	.342	.541
2018Away	.897	288	43	17	49	0	.276	.361	.536
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Stat Review

How does Jesus Aguilar compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

BB/K

0.58

BB Rate

10.6%

K Rate

18.5%

BABIP

.306

ISO

.181

AVG

.277

OBP

.352

SLG

.457

OPS

.809

wOBA

.353

Exit Velocity

82.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

35.5%

Barrels/PA

6.0%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Aguilar took a big step back from his breakout power year in Milwaukee and found himself traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline, where he was stuck starting against lefties with the Rays riding the Ji-Man Choi Express against righties. He will have another opportunity to carve out significant playing time after the rebuilding Marlins claimed him off waivers, but he will still have to earn at-bats against righties. The quality of his contact suffered last year, and perhaps that was due to the inconsistent playing time, as that was not the case in Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018. One could be interested in going back to the well for Aguilar one more time given what he has done in recent history and the lack of quality fantasy depth at first base. It should be noted that Aguilar overperformed his expected stats in the seasons that give us hope, so that two-year run may end up representing his career peak.

It seemed Aguilar would struggle to see at-bats when the 2018 season kicked off, but when fellow first baseman Eric Thames injured his thumb he became the Brewers' regular first baseman and never looked back, holding down the job the rest of the way. Aguilar played so well in the first half he earned an All-Star berth and was on the fringes of the MVP conversation, but things nose-dived in the second half, and he posted just an average .760 OPS after the break. When it was all said and done, Aguilar still finished top-5 in the NL in both home runs and RBI. That will make Aguilar the top option at first base for the Brewers in 2019, and if he holds onto the job, expect him to again have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs with Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich both getting on base at a high clip atop the order.

An offseason waiver claim by the Brewers, Aguilar faced an uphill battle to make the Opening Day roster, but he earned the backup first base job thanks to a sizzling spring training. He kept hitting once the regular season began, and did so for much of the first half, tallying 24 extra-base hits to head into the All-Star break with a .911 OPS. He finished the year with 16 long balls in just 279 at-bats, but his luck on balls in play really dipped from .383 in the first half to .262 in the second half, resulting in a .289 OBP after the Midsummer Classic. Aguilar showed his power potential last year, but as a part-time player who only plays one position, he figures to face competition for his roster spot. Should he wind up in a situation where he sees regular at-bats, however, his power potential could make him a useful fantasy option in standard formats for that stretch of time.

For the second straight year, Aguilar's batting average at Triple-A Columbus tumbled, this time reaching a sub-.250 mark. Although his batting average and K-rate hovered around their recent marks of 10 and 20 percent, respectively, his BABIP slid from .305 to .255. However, his regression in terms of BABIP may be justified, as there was a part of Aguilar's game that took a tremendous step forward in 2016, that being power. Over 137 games, Aguilar knocked 30 home runs and 26 doubles, giving him a .472 slugging percentage. While this was a large improvement for the 26-year-old, Aguilar's chances of making it up to the majors for an extended stay with the Brewers in 2017 are likely dependent upon whether or not Eric Thames can hold onto an everyday role at first base. If Thames falters, the door may be open for Aguilar to an impact at first base as a below average hitter with a high ceiling in terms of power.

Aguilar spent most of 2015 at Triple-A Columbus, logging 131 games for the Clippers sandwiched around a couple of short stints with the Tribe. He didn't take the step forward that many in the organization were hoping for in his second extended look at Triple-A, slashing .267/.332/.439 with 29 doubles and 19 homers in 131 games versus a .304/.395/.511 line with 31 doubles and 19 homers in 118 games in 2014. His walk rate dipped to 8.2 percent, down from 12.8 percent in 2014, though his strikeout rate remained largely unchanged at 20.1 percent. He's locked into a 1B/DH role, a spot comfortably occupied by Carlos Santana (on a club-friendly deal for two more seasons) and offseason signee Mike Napoli. The Indians could keep Aguilar as organizational depth, or move him before he's tagged as a Quadruple-A player, although the word might already be out on that front.

Aguilar is a sizable right-handed first baseman whose bat will have to force him into a lineup because he’s never going to be confused as someone with a good glove. He has hit .276/.357/.453 throughout his minor league career including a lofty .304/.395/.511 line in Triple-A in 2014. The large righty may be penalized for his defense and being right-handed at a predominately left-handed position, but that should not make him a platoon guy. Aguilar has shown little in the way of platoon splits in the minors as his ability to hit for average and power was nearly identical versus lefties and righties. He's an interesting power speculation in deep AL-only leagues, but things became more crowded in Cleveland with the addition of Brandon Moss in December.

Aguilar continues to climb through the upper levels of the minors, producing well enough in 2013 to earn a 40-man roster spot and subsequent protection from the Rule 5 draft. After a solid, albeit unspectacular, campaign at Double-A Akron as a 23-year-old last season, Aguilar piled up a .306/.364/.556 line with 12 homers, 35 RBI and a 15:20 BB:K over 160 at-bats during a 40-game stretch in the Venezuelan Winter League. In addition to showing more desirable production at the plate for a corner infielder, Aguilar was given time at third base during the winter due to injuries on his offseason club. It remains to be seen if the Indians will continue giving him time at third base to push Lonnie Chisenhall, but it's worth keeping an eye on how he's deployed during spring training to see if a move across the diamond materializes.

Aguilar still hasn't flashed the power potential you might expect from a guy his size (6-foot-3, 255), but he'll get some extra attention in an organization lacking in power prospects. He'll have to hit to contribute, however, as he's a mess defensively, and it remains to be seen how he'll adjust as he moves up the minor league ranks. His swing is exploitable at times, and he's only seen limited time at Double-A thus far. It's a crucial year for his development to see if he can begin to translate his physical abilities into performance on the field.

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