Jorge Alfaro
Jorge Alfaro
26-Year-Old CatcherC
Miami Marlins
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Alfaro couldn’t repeat the impressive offensive performance from his 29-game rookie season, but he still produced a solid .262/.324/.407 line with 10 homers in 377 plate appearances, totally acceptable for a catcher. Combined with strong framing numbers, the 25-year-old appears to be well on his way to being an average or better starting catcher. The underlying stats provide reason to be cautious in the near term. His strikeout rate of 36.6% ranked third-worst among all hitters who came to the plate at least 350 times, beating only Chris Davis and Mike Zunino, and his batting line was propped up by a clearly unsustainable .406 BABIP (the highest among the same group). Alfaro does hit the ball very hard, but no one can keep up a BABIP that high. According to Statcast’s xBA, he deserved to hit closer to .220. He has room to keep growing, but it may be a gradual process with only incremental improvement in 2019. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#246
ADP
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Phillies in March of 2018. Traded to the Marlins in February of 2019.
Sitting again Friday
CMiami Marlins
September 27, 2019
Alfaro is not in the lineup for Friday's game at Philadelphia.
ANALYSIS
Alfaro will head to the bench for the second straight contest after starting 12 of the previous 13 games. Tyler Heineman will take over behind the plate, batting eighth.
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
22
26
25
5
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
10
5
5
9
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+3%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+15%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+1%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+111%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .734 249 22 8 25 3 .262 .309 .425
Since 2017vs Right .757 707 69 25 83 4 .271 .327 .430
2019vs Left .813 118 13 6 20 2 .286 .322 .491
2019vs Right .710 347 31 12 37 2 .254 .308 .401
2018vs Left .726 94 8 2 4 1 .256 .319 .407
2018vs Right .732 283 27 8 33 2 .264 .325 .407
2017vs Left .500 37 1 0 1 0 .200 .243 .257
2017vs Right 1.054 77 11 5 13 0 .375 .416 .639
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+9%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+6%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+13%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .766 473 52 18 53 5 .273 .328 .438
Since 2017Away .736 483 39 15 55 2 .265 .317 .419
2019Home .770 225 25 7 24 2 .288 .338 .433
2019Away .705 240 19 11 33 2 .238 .288 .417
2018Home .708 187 20 8 20 3 .240 .305 .404
2018Away .753 190 15 2 17 0 .283 .342 .410
2017Home .922 61 7 3 9 0 .316 .361 .561
2017Away .818 53 5 2 5 0 .320 .358 .460
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Stat Review
How does Jorge Alfaro compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.14
 
BB Rate
4.7%
 
K Rate
33.1%
 
BABIP
.364
 
ISO
.162
 
AVG
.262
 
OBP
.312
 
SLG
.425
 
OPS
.736
 
wOBA
.323
 
Exit Velocity
90.3 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
43.7%
 
Barrels/PA
6.5%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2012
While he is reminiscent of Gary Sanchez in terms of prospect fatigue and raw power, the red flags in Alfaro's offensive profile are much more significant than anything attached to Sanchez in his final offseason on prospect lists. If Alfaro were not on the 40-man roster and out of minor-league options, he would be in line to repeat Triple-A this season. Those roster-management issues will force the Phillies to keep him in the majors in 2018, where his pitch recognition issues and lack of patience should lead to below-replacement-level production. Throw out his impressive numbers in the majors -- his .420 BABIP and 33:3 K:BB illustrate that he was operating at a completely unsustainable level. He still possesses plus-plus raw power, but his ceiling is likely what Mike Zunino did last year (.251/.331/.509 with 25 home runs in 124 games). Unfortunately, like with Zunino, there will be a few years where his average and OBP are unpalatable before he reaches that level, so rostering him in dynasty leagues during the lean years will require extreme patience.
The Phillies sent Alfaro back to Double-A Reading at the start of last season after he missed a significant amount of time in 2015 with an ankle injury. Alfaro was able to stay mostly healthy (outside of an oblique issue) and put together a solid season. Like many of the hitters playing for Reading, Alfaro's overall stat line was buoyed by his hitter-friendly home park. He hit .318 with nine home runs and an .855 OPS in 211 at-bats at home, but just .249 with six home runs and a .705 OPS in 193 at-bats on the road. He also struggled against lefties, hitting just .213 with one homer and a .585 OPS in 80 at-bats last season. The Phillies gave Alfaro a cup of coffee in September, but he doesn't appear to be part of their plans behind the plate in 2017. He needs more time in the minors to continue to refine his offensive game.
Acquired as part of the deal that sent Cole Hamels to the Rangers last season, Alfaro was limited to 194 at-bats due to an ankle injury that he suffered in June. He projects to have plus power with above average speed for a catcher, but there is a lot of risk associated with the profile. Last season, before getting hurt, Alfaro struck out 61 times in 49 games with just nine walks, illustrating his flawed approach. Despite having an elite arm behind the plate, Alfaro has some work to do as a receiver, which could keep him in the minors longer than anticipated. He made a late-season appearance with the Gulf Coast League Phillies and then picked up extra at-bats playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. Look for Alfaro to return to Double-A to start the year, with the chance to reach Triple-A by midseason if he gets off to a good start. The shine is not as bright as it once was with Alfaro, but he is still a top-10 prospect at his position.
The hype around the toolsy backstop has been building for a few seasons, yet he did not advance to Double-A Frisco until the final month of 2014. Coming off a 18-homer/18-steal 2013 season (primarily at Low-A Hickory), there seemed to be no limit to what Alfaro could eventually accomplish at the big league level. His power continued to show in games last season, and he belted 13 home runs with a .261/.318/.440 slash line in 437 plate appearances at High-A Myrtle Beach and he added another four big flies in 99 plate appearances after a late season promotion to Double-A. However, the speed that had some dreaming of a 30/20 season some day, was nowhere to be found last season. He had six steals in 11 attempts at High-A and did not attempt a steal with Frisco. Alfaro, who is still just 21 years old, should join the Rangers in 2016 and has the potential to hit .265 with 25 home runs and 10 steals in his prime, making him an elite prospect at a scarce position.
Alfaro enters 2014 as one of the best fantasy prospects in all of baseball behind the plate, though there are still plenty of areas where Alfaro needs to improve to realize his vast potential. He spent most of the year at Low-A Hickory, hitting .258/.338/.452 but drawing just 28 walks against 111 strikeouts. Alfaro did play better in a brief stint against advanced competition in the Arizona Fall League (.386/.438/.500 in 19 games), and he's expected to begin the year at High-A Myrtle Beach before a promotion mid-year to Double-A Frisco if his production warrants it. There's a 25-homer, 15-steal skill set at his peak if things go well, but 2014 will be a major test for him.
Alfaro's short-season debut went well when you consider he was playing against players three years his elder in some cases. His .300/.345/.481 line looks good on paper, but there are still some troubling plate discipline issues. He'll make his full-season debut in 2012.
More Fantasy News
Gets day off
CMiami Marlins
September 26, 2019
Alfaro is not starting Thursday against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Clubs 18th homer
CMiami Marlins
September 26, 2019
Alfaro went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's 10-3 loss to the Mets.
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Drives in five against Mets
CMiami Marlins
September 23, 2019
Alfaro went 2-for-4 with a pair of home runs, five RBI and a walk to help the Marlins to an 8-4 victory over the Mets on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Won't miss time
CMiami Marlins
September 18, 2019
Alfaro (hand) will start Wednesday against Arizona, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports.
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Day-to-day with bruised hand
CMiami Marlins
Hand
September 17, 2019
Alfaro left Tuesday's game against the Diamondbacks in the second inning with a left hand contusion, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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