Collin McHugh
Collin McHugh
33-Year-Old PitcherRP
Boston Red Sox
Out
Injury Opt Out
Est. Return 2/1/2021
2020 Fantasy Outlook
After dominating as a reliever in 2018, McHugh began last season in the starting rotation and notched a 1.96 ERA through four starts. Disaster struck in his fifth outing, however, as McHugh allowed nine earned runs in 3.1 innings, setting off a four-start stretch in which the right-hander posted an unsightly 12.00 ERA. The slump cost McHugh a spot in the rotation that he never reclaimed. As a reliever, McHugh was mostly effective, though he battled elbow issues throughout the season and was shut down for good at the end of August. Overall, the veteran posted solid strikeout numbers (25.9 K%), but his home-run rate (1.45 HR/9) nearly doubled and his walk rate (9.5%) set a career high. McHugh will hit free agency in the offseason and is likely to covet a chance to start. He's enjoyed success in that role in the past, but he'll be a risky investment considering his elbow troubles and inconsistency last season. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a one-year, $600,000 contract with the Red Sox in March of 2020.
Opts out of season
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
July 19, 2020
McHugh (elbow) opted out of the 2020 season since his recovery hasn't progressed like he had hoped, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.
ANALYSIS
The 33-year-old has been working his way back from an elbow injury and was already ruled out for the start of the season, but he was apparently expected to be on the injured list for a significant portion of the shortened campaign. As a result, McHugh decided his time would be better spent at home with his family amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-34%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-41%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .199 281 81 31 49 14 1 9
Since 2018vs Right .201 319 95 20 58 14 2 9
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Left .174 152 45 18 23 6 1 6
2019vs Right .264 165 37 12 39 13 1 6
2018vs Left .228 129 36 13 26 8 0 3
2018vs Right .135 154 58 8 19 1 1 3
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-13%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 3.10 1.06 72.2 6 2 0 11.6 3.5 1.2
Since 2018Away 3.63 1.09 74.1 4 5 0 9.9 2.8 1.0
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 3.92 1.33 39.0 2 2 0 10.6 5.1 1.6
2019Away 5.55 1.12 35.2 2 3 0 9.1 2.0 1.3
2018Home 2.14 0.74 33.2 4 0 0 12.8 1.6 0.8
2018Away 1.86 1.06 38.2 2 2 0 10.7 3.5 0.7
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Collin McHugh
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
McHugh is probably the best starting pitcher who didn't make a single start last season. After McHugh turned in four straight years with a FIP under 4.00, the Astros, with their embarrassment of riches on the pitching side, moved McHugh to the bullpen in 2018. He excelled there to the tune of a 1.99 ERA in 72.1 innings. Notably, his strikeout rate spiked from 22.9% to 33.2% thanks to a small velocity bump and increased slider usage, while he held his walk rate steady at 7.4%. He'd likely give back some of those gains should he return to a starting role, but starting would mean more innings, more strikeouts and more chances at wins. McHugh is talented enough to remain a fantasy factor even if he remains in the bullpen, as he can help anchor your ratios.
McHugh's 2017 campaign got off to an ominous start as an early-spring dead arm turned into a right elbow impingement, delaying his debut until July 22. He started 12 contests, providing a timely shot in the arm to the Astros over the second half. McHugh's numbers were an improvement over his disappointing 2016, in part due to allowing only seven homers in 63.1 innings. He also significantly improved versus right-handed batters (.694 OPS against in 2017 versus .777 in 2016), incorporating a slider to complement the cutter he throws versus lefties. McHugh's career 22 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate are both better than league average, portending success if he can continue minimizing homers. McHugh will contend for a spot in a crowded Astros rotation, but the acquisition of Gerrit Cole probably means he'll start the season working out of the bullpen like he did during the 2017 postseason. Unless his role is clarified in the spring, don't pay for more than 125-130 innings.
Those who bought in on McHugh in 2016 were left mostly disappointed as he turned in damaging ratios along with modest totals in wins and strikeouts. However, it was not a disastrous season by any means, and he in fact improved in several areas, most notably with his strikeout rate (22.2 percent) -- a rebound supported by his third straight season with a swinging-strike rate north of 10 percent. Unfortunately, a pair of disastrous outings (13 combined earned runs over the span of two innings) marred his overall numbers. He threw roughly 20 fewer innings than he did in 2015 despite making one additional start as manager A.J. Hinch was quick to give him the hook on his off nights. Home runs were a problem (25 allowed), but an improvement there in 2017 could return McHugh to mixed-league prominence. While there is some uncertainty at the back of the Houston rotation, McHugh should be secure in his role entering spring training.
After a 2014 breakout that put him in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation, McHugh entered last season with an assured rotation spot with the Astros. The 28-year-old picked up right where he left off, going 3-0 with a 2.92 ERA in April before suffering his first loss of the season on May 12. McHugh wasn't at his best from May through July, but a strong August (1.89 ERA) and four wins in September attributed to solid numbers overall, as he finished 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 171:53 K:BB ratio over 203.2 innings. While his 19 wins were tied for third-best in the majors, his strikeout rate (7.6 K/9) dipped slightly, but that may be attributed to less use of his curveball and slider. The right-hander will open 2016 in the upper half of Houston's rotation after earning his first postseason victory with a win over the Royals in Game 1 of the ALDS.
McHugh opened 2014 in the minors after a disastrous spring (14.29 ERA), but he received a quick call from Houston when Scott Feldman's injury opened up a spot in the rotation. Once he arrived, he never looked back, going 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 157:41 K:BB in 154.2 innings (25 starts). His curveball and slider were particularly effective, attributing to a career-best 9.1 K/9 ratio. McHugh's impressive season put him in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation, and while he didn't win the award, he definitely assured himself a spot in the Astros' starting rotation to open 2015.
The fifth spot in the Rockies' rotation was a continual trouble spot throughout the second half of the season, and McHugh was arguably the worst of those who filled the role, going 0-3 with a 9.95 ERA in his three starts. Despite his quality minor league numbers, McHugh has been abysmal over his 47 innings in the big leagues, with his strikeout rate bottoming out and an inability to avoid the long ball proving to be his biggest pitfalls. McHugh will compete for an Opening Day roster spot, in a role to be determined, with the Astros during spring training after being claimed off waivers in December.
McHugh held his own after a promotion to Triple-A Buffalo last season, carrying a 70:29 K:BB and finding a way to retire hitters without an overpowering arsenal. After throwing 129 innings between two levels in 2011, McHugh was likely out of gas by the time he broke through to the big leagues, having already logged 148.1 innings over 25 starts between Binghamton and Buffalo. If there are any openings in the rotation when the season begins, McHugh figures to be in the mix to handle a temporary spot as the team's fifth starter, but he will have to fend off Jeremy Hefner and youngsters Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia and Zack Wheeler to keep that spot.
More Fantasy News
Won't be ready for opener
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
July 18, 2020
McHugh (elbow) will not be ready for Opening Day, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Needs faster progression
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
July 11, 2020
Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke said McHugh (elbow) needs "to start progressing a lot faster" to be ready for the Opening Day roster, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
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More bullpens on tap
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
July 9, 2020
Manager Ron Roenicke said McHugh (elbow) is scheduled to throw at least "a couple more bullpens," Bill Koch of The Providence Journal reports.
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Throws side session
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
July 5, 2020
McHugh (elbow) threw a side session Saturday, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
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Ready for mound work
PBoston Red Sox
Elbow
June 29, 2020
Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke said that McHugh (elbow) will be ready to throw bullpen sessions when the team opens "summer camp" Friday, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports.
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