Carlos Correa
Carlos Correa
26-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Houston Astros
2021 Fantasy Outlook
"A tale of two seasons" is the cliche; the contrast between Correa's regular-season performance and his performance in the 2020 playoffs was so stark that it's only fitting to use. Correa was below league average by wRC+ during the regular season (97) and barely above replacement level in rotisserie baseball ($1.41 earned in 12-team leagues). However, he turned into a different player once the calendar flipped to October and ended up carrying the Astros to one win short of the World Series with a .362/.455/.766 slash line and six homers in the playoffs. Correa's batted-ball profile does little to excite, but he showed that there is still life in his bat. His lengthy injury history is the bigger concern than his regular-season struggles and that dark cloud and the plethora of capable options at the shortstop position should drive his acquisition cost down to lower than it's ever been since he broke into MLB. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#122
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $11.7 million contract with the Astros in February of 2021.
Muscles homer Sunday
SSHouston Astros
June 20, 2021
Correa went 2-for-3 with a home run, an additional run scored and two walks in Sunday's win over the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
Correa has homered in back-to-back games and has three over his last six games, a span in which he's also recorded hits in all but one appearance. The star shortstop has been seeing the ball well of late and is hitting .350 on the month, a span in which he's also racked up six homers, 13 RBI, 16 runs scored, five doubles and a 13:14 BB:K across 16 games.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
6
1
2
6
17
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
4
2
5
8
12
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+1%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+2%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+1%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+5%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .867 258 38 7 28 0 .300 .403 .464
Since 2019vs Right .857 578 76 32 95 1 .271 .343 .515
2021vs Left .909 113 22 3 10 0 .316 .425 .484
2021vs Right .931 182 29 11 30 0 .285 .374 .557
2020vs Left .693 67 8 1 6 0 .267 .343 .350
2020vs Right .685 153 13 3 18 0 .257 .314 .371
2019vs Left .962 78 8 3 12 0 .308 .423 .538
2019vs Right .914 243 34 18 47 1 .270 .337 .577
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+32%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+24%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .938 403 63 22 70 1 .299 .395 .544
Since 2019Away .801 434 52 18 54 0 .264 .332 .469
2021Home 1.046 155 34 10 24 0 .315 .432 .614
2021Away .794 140 17 4 16 0 .278 .350 .444
2020Home .646 102 7 1 15 0 .244 .324 .322
2020Away .760 119 15 4 10 0 .279 .328 .432
2019Home 1.034 146 22 11 31 1 .323 .404 .630
2019Away .836 175 20 10 28 0 .242 .320 .516
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Stat Review
How does Carlos Correa compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.81
 
BB Rate
13.2%
 
K Rate
16.3%
 
BABIP
.318
 
ISO
.233
 
AVG
.296
 
OBP
.393
 
SLG
.530
 
OPS
.923
 
wOBA
.400
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
37.4%
 
Barrels/PA
5.7%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
On May 22, Correa was slashing .295/.360/.547, well on the way to showing the previous season's performance and injury struggles were behind him. Then, he reported feeling soreness in his ribs, supposedly from an in-home massage gone wrong. Correa was diagnosed with a cracked rib and spent just over eight weeks on the IL. Over the next month or so, Correa posted a .237/.354/.575 line before succumbing to back soreness. He played three games in September before being shut down until the playoffs. While his early-season performance was encouraging and his rib injury was a fluke, the recurrence of back woes is a huge buzzkill. Under the hood, Correa's indicators resembled those from before 2018. He didn't miss a playoff game, though he batted a disappointing .191/.257/.382 in the postseason. Correa remains an impact fantasy player when healthy, but until he shows he's devoid of back issues, he's a health risk.
For the second consecutive year, Correa's season was abbreviated due to injury. Unlike in 2017, his offensive numbers were not good as the problems with his back and oblique area lingered and affected his performance. A hitter is nothing without a healthy core, and Correa proved that in spades last year as he looked like a shadow of the guy we saw at the plate from 2015-17. The injury issue is present now, and tough to overlook given it has happened in back-to-back seasons, but what should be overlooked is last year’s struggles. Asking a hitter to perform at a high level without his core is like asking a sprinter to excel while running with plantar fasciitis. The down year presents a buying opportunity we have not yet had for Correa as expectations have been high since he came on the scene. Jump back in with both feet and hope he gets back over 600 plate appearances to maximize his earning potential.
Correa took another big step forward in his age-22 season, setting new career-highs in homers (24), batting average (.315), on-base percentage (.391) and slugging percentage (.550) while cutting his strikeout rate down to 19.1 percent. The counting stats could have been even better if he hadn't lost two months to a thumb injury suffered while he was sliding into home plate in early July. After returning in September, Correa hit just four homers in the final month of the season, but he swatted five in 18 postseason games while doing his part to help the Astros bring home a World Series title. After reaching double-digit stolen bases in each of his first two seasons with Houston, Correa had just two steals in 2017, which is a particularly surprising shift when you consider that he was 27-for-34 (79.4 percent) in his career prior to last season. With an excellent supporting cast returning around him in Houston, Correa could emerge as an MVP candidate with a completely healthy season in 2018.
Correa had a solid 2016 season that may get lost amid his heightened expectations and with so many other shortstops producing at the plate. Correa drew more walks last season, but also struck out a bit more and also did not get as much loft on his batted balls as he did in his rookie season. He also didn't run as frequently as expected, as he attempted just 17 steals. Correa needs to close the gaps in his splits to improve as he has hit for a better average and more power against righties than he has lefties. He could hit anywhere in the top four spots of the lineup in 2017, but hitting between Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve could be huge for his runs and RBI. At just 23, Correa still has time to become the top player at his position and fantasy superstar many envisioned when drafting him in the first round last year.
Correa, who entered 2015 fully healthy after suffering a fractured fibula the year prior, showed he had nothing left to prove in the minors, hitting .335/.407/.600 with 10 home runs, 44 RBI, and 18 stolen bases in 53 games between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Fresno. He made his big league debut in June as a 20-year-old and never looked back, replacing the injured Jed Lowrie as the Astros' starting shortstop. Correa surpassed his already lofty expectations by hitting .279/.345/.512 with 22 home runs, 68 RBI, and 14 steals in 99 games for Houston. The former No. 1 pick also broke several playoff records for his historic performance (4-for-4, two home runs, 11 total bases) in Game 4 of the ALDS. Fresh off a tremendous debut season, Correa is likely to be the first shortstop taken off the board in 2016 drafts and is justifiable as a first-round pick.
Correa was tremendous for High-A Lancaster, hitting .325/.416/.510 with six home runs, 57 RBI and 20 steals in just 62 games, before he fractured his fibula in late June, ending his season. Now several months removed from the injury, the 20-year-old shortstop is running, fielding grounders and taking part in other baseball-related activities, and should be fully recovered for the start of spring training. Despite the lost development time, Correa is still widely considered one of the top prospects in baseball. He's likely to spend most of the season, if not all of it, with Double-A Corpus Christi.
Correa, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2012 MLB draft, got off to a slow start in April (.221 batting average), but really turned up the heat after that to finish his first full season with an impressive .320/.405/.467 line despite missing time with a pair of hand injuries. He didn't hit for much power (nine home runs), but he tied for sixth in the Midwest League with 33 doubles and ranked fourth with 86 RBI. Those numbers, combined with uncertainty surrounding Correa's long-term defensive position between shortstop and third base, drew comparisons to the Orioles' Manny Machado. Regardless of what position he plays, the 19-year-old Correa has immense upside. For now, he will reside near the top, if not at the very top, of shortstop prospect rankings.
The surprise first overall pick of the 2012 draft struggled a bit in his first Gulf Coast League action, but turned it on when he was promoted to the Appalachian League in early August -- hitting .371/.450/.600 in limited at-bats. Correa looks like he will stick at shortstop, but at just 18, a lot will depend on how his body matures over the next three-to-four years. He will need to work on his endurance as he did not play every day in Puerto Rico. Correa will likely start the year on one of the Astros' short-season teams, but if things go well he should find his way to one of the team's full-season clubs when all is said and done.
More Fantasy News
Slams 13th home run
SSHouston Astros
June 19, 2021
Correa went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Saturday's 7-3 win over the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Knocks in one, scores in win
SSHouston Astros
June 18, 2021
Correa went 1-for-3 with a double, an RBI, a run and a walk in Thursday's 10-2 win over the White Sox.
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Launches clutch homer Tuesday
SSHouston Astros
June 16, 2021
Correa went 2-for-3 with a walk and a solo home run in Tuesday's 6-3 extra-inning win over the Rangers.
ANALYSIS
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Day off Saturday
SSHouston Astros
June 12, 2021
Correa is not in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Twins.
ANALYSIS
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Homers, doubles in win
SSHouston Astros
June 8, 2021
Correa went 3-for-5 with a solo home run, an RBI double and another run scored during Tuesday's win over Boston.
ANALYSIS
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