Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Boyd entered the 2020 season with the burden of proving that the results of his 2019 campaign were a new norm rather than a one-year aberration on his resume. While a full season of work yielded only 60.1 innings, Boyd's results regressed heavily in 2020. His fastball remained troublesome, as opposing batters teed off against the pitch for a .643 slugging percentage, .425 wOBA and eight home runs. Also problematic was the fact that Boyd generated fewer whiffs and surrendered harder contact with his slider, which ranked among the best pitches in the league in past seasons. The result was a strikeout rate and K-BB% that fell back toward his career average and a 2.24 HR/9 that sunk many of his starts. Projecting forward, Boyd is a safe bet for volume, though his ratios aren't likely to reach their 2019 peak and his win potential may also be muted if he remains a Tiger amid offseason trade rumors. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#308
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2021.
Tosses bullpen Thursday
PDetroit Tigers
February 21, 2021
Boyd tossed 41 pitches in a bullpen session Thursday and is reportedly ahead of his normal schedule at this point in the spring, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
This is encouraging news early in camp, as Boyd acknowledged that he pitched through a hamstring injury and plantar fasciitis last season. The ailments might have contributed to his subpar 6.71 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, but if he's healthier in 2021, the lefty could return to his 2019 form, when he registered a 4.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 238 strikeouts across 185.1 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
91
How many pitches does Matthew Boyd generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Matthew Boyd generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-56%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .213 342 96 14 67 14 0 14
Since 2018vs Right .252 1426 361 109 324 72 5 67
2020vs Left .135 39 11 2 5 1 0 1
2020vs Right .304 232 49 20 62 16 2 14
2019vs Left .231 148 44 6 31 5 0 7
2019vs Right .250 640 194 44 147 31 2 32
2018vs Left .215 155 41 6 31 8 0 6
2018vs Right .232 554 118 45 115 25 1 21
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-17%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-55%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 4.21 1.18 194.1 13 11 0 8.9 2.5 1.9
Since 2018Away 5.32 1.28 221.2 8 21 0 10.7 2.8 1.7
2020Home 7.36 1.60 29.1 2 3 0 8.3 3.7 1.8
2020Away 6.10 1.35 31.0 1 4 0 9.6 2.9 2.6
2019Home 4.59 1.23 86.1 5 5 0 10.1 2.3 2.7
2019Away 4.55 1.23 99.0 4 7 0 12.8 2.5 1.2
2018Home 2.63 0.98 78.2 6 3 0 7.9 2.3 0.9
2018Away 5.89 1.31 91.2 3 10 0 8.8 3.0 1.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Matthew Boyd compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.73
 
K/9
9.0
 
BB/9
3.3
 
HR/9
2.2
 
Fastball
91.7 mph
 
ERA
6.71
 
WHIP
1.48
 
BABIP
.321
 
GB/FB
1.03
 
Left On Base
63.2%
 
Exit Velocity
81.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.9%
 
Spin Rate
2236 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.1%
 
Swinging Strike
12.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
The perennial fantasy tease was at it again. Two months into the season, Boyd was sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 88 strikeouts, 15 walks and a stingy seven homers in 72.2 frames. There wasn't anything different with his pitch mix, but the strong start was supported by underlying metrics, sending many down the familiar rabbit hole. Once the calendar flipped to June, Boyd gave up homers like Pete Alonso's cousin in the Home Run Derby, surrendering 12 in his next 34.1 innings. The onslaught continued with Boyd ultimately serving up 39 long balls in 185.1 innings, second most in the league. While the lively ball played a part, the main reason for the homer barrage was Boyd's inability to continue getting away with working up in the zone. In order to be trusted as more than a streamer, Boyd needs to demonstrate a tangible reason he can the ball in the yard all season. If you take the flier, be ready to bail.
Boyd was the de facto staff ace for Detroit in 2018, leading the team in starts, quality starts, wins and strikeouts. The lefty came out of the gates hot, posting an even 3.00 ERA over his first 10 starts, but these monthly ERAs followed: 6.32, 4.34, 4.25, 5.40. He can show flashes of upside, like he did Sept. 8 when he fanned 11 Cardinals, but only his slider graded out as league average. Granted, it was the fifth-best slider among starters, but it's tough to be successful in the major leagues on a consistent basis with only one good pitch. Against lefty batters, Boyd had a 22.6 K-BB%, but that number fell all the way to 13.2% against opposite-handed hitters. Righties combined for 21 homers against Boyd (1.44 HR/9). He seems cemented into the Tigers' rotation and his WHIP will likely remain reasonable, but those home runs aren't going anywhere and the team will be bad, so don't get too carried away.
The lefty has enjoyed a great deal of success at Triple-A (2.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.5 K/9), but to this point he's been unable to sustain success at the highest level. His strikeout rate fell by two per nine with the jump between levels last season (to 7.3 K/9) while his walk rate ticked up by more than a walk per nine (3.5 BB/9), but even so he probably deserved a little better than a 5.27 ERA -- Boyd was bit unlucky with a .330 BABIP and 68.7 percent strand rate. Just keep in mind that Boyd's BABIP will remain relatively high if he continues to allow line drives at a 22.3 percent clip. Boyd finished strong last season (2.95 ERA in September) and should have a rotation spot locked down on the rebuilding Tigers, so he has some appeal in the endgame of AL-only drafts and auctions, but he's waiver-wire fodder in mixed leagues until further notice.
Boyd had one of those seasons we regularly see from young arms: he was either good or horrible. There was little in-between. He had four incredibly bad starts that accounted for 49 percent of his earned runs (24-of-49) in just 11 percent of his innings (11.2 out of 97.1) yielding a 18.46 ERA. He posted a 2.63 ERA in his other 85.7 innings (14 starts, two relief appearances). Boyd has a quality four-pitch mix with the slider and changeup both operating as swing-and-miss offerings against righties and lefties, but the fastball and curve were homer-prone versus righties which resulted in a 202-point OPS split. His key to success is keeping the fastball up versus righties and maybe shifting some of the curveball usage to his other secondaries unless he can stop hanging it so much. There's something to bet on here and he won't cost much at all.
Boyd went to Detroit in the David Price trade and had a cup of coffee as the Tigers' fifth starter last year. He struggled with control and the long ball. In fact, he allowed 17 homers in just 57.1 innings of work and finished 1-6 with a 1.59 WHIP and 43:20 K:BB rate. He's a power lefty who hit 95 mph as a starter, but his future might lie in the bullpen, as his heater could theoretically hit 97 or even 98 if he were restricted to just one or two innings of work, and that could make him remarkably successful given the deceit that comes with his arm slot. He isn't yet worth owning as a starter in most formats, although he will have an opportunity to compete for a spot in the rotation during spring training. His horrible numbers in limited work in the big leagues last year will scare everyone away, so if he does win a spot out of camp, he will be dirt cheap in AL-only leagues.
More Fantasy News
Pitched through multiple injuries
PDetroit Tigers
January 29, 2021
Boyd pitched through a hamstring injury suffered during summer training camp, and then later with plantar fasciitis in his left foot over his last couple of starts, Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports.
ANALYSIS
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Won't require arbitration
PDetroit Tigers
January 15, 2021
Boyd and the Tigers reached a one-year, $6.5 million deal Friday, avoiding arbitration, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Allows five runs in loss
PDetroit Tigers
September 20, 2020
Boyd (2-7) allowed five earned runs on five hits across five innings to take the loss Sunday against Cleveland. He walked one and struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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Leads shutout effort
PDetroit Tigers
September 15, 2020
Boyd (2-6) threw 5.2 innings of two-hit ball during the Tigers' 6-0 victory over the Royals on Tuesday. He walked four and struck out five without allowing a run.
ANALYSIS
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Rocked for seven runs
PDetroit Tigers
September 9, 2020
Boyd (1-6) took the loss after giving up seven runs on eight hits with two strikeouts and four walks over three innings Wednesday against the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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