Collette Calls: Pitching Bold Predictions 2025 Review

Each year, I like to look back at the bold predictions I made in January and February to look for lessons learned as well as successes. I do not run from my mistakes, but I do want to learn from them in my continual efforts to help you all leverage these predictions in your own fantasy pursuits. My annual goal is to get at least a third of these correct without lowering the bar for what determines the boldness of the prediction. There were indeed some five-star reviews this season, but there were also plenty of predictions where you would be well within your rights to ask to speak to my manager.

All Earned Auction Value (EAV) references and overall rankings are based off standard 15-team mixed leagues.

Five-Star Reviews

Matthew Boyd is a top-100 pitcher (ADP 328)

Final EAV: $17
Final Overall Rank: 84

The risk/reward came through in a big way here, because Boyd's workload was a massive unknown. The 34-year old pitcher had not thrown even as many as 80 innings since before the pandemic. Boyd came out and made 31 starts with 14 wins, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP along with 154 strikeouts in 179.2 innings of work. He was not as sharp in the postseason, but it is quite likely the tremendous increase in workload caught up to him. I thank Boyd for his 2025 service and how he helped me finish in the money, but he will not be on my 2026 squads at his likely draft price. 

Nick Lodolo is a top-60 pitcher (ADP 239)

Final EAV: $12
Final Overall Rank: 128

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This one was fun, because Lodolo's strikeout rate declined, his home run rate increased, yet his ERA and WHIP both improved. The ERA decline came from him stranding over 80% of his baserunners, while the WHIP improvement centered on him posting a career-best walk rate. He had done these things in 2023 as well, but it was over a much smaller sample size. If you go back and look at his 2024 indicators under the hood, the signs were there. I do not blame you for missing them if you could not get past his lengthy injury history 

Noah Cameron is a top-200 pitcher (ADP 683)

Final EAV: $9
Final Overall Rank: 175

This prediction was premised on the fact that Kansas City enjoyed an unusual amount of starting pitching health last year that was unlikely to repeat in 2025. That is indeed what happened and Cameron, being on the 40-man roster in Triple-A, was the next man up. The rookie pitched incredibly well, winning nine of his 25 starts with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His only flaw was a 21 percent strikeout rate which was just about league average, as well as a few too many home runs. All in all, he finished more than 500 spots ahead of his ADP. I am most proud of this prediction this year, and getting him in the 13th round of a dynasty reserve draft in March was an added bonus for me.

Emmanuel Clase does not finish as a top-five closer (ADP 34)

Final EAV: $5
Final Overall Rank: 239

I took a lot of heat for this prediction, but even without the gambling suspension which eventually hit him, Clase was not going to defy history. We still have not seen any closer save 40-plus games in four consecutive seasons, and Mark Melancon remains the only pitcher to ever work 70-plus games in four consecutive seasons. Ignore history at your own peril. 

Michael King is not a top-50 pitcher (ADP 64)

Final EAV: -$3
Final Overall Rank: 416

My guidance to fade King was SOP for me, as it was due to workload concerns. As I mentioned above with Boyd, any time a pitcher sees a tremendous jump in workload year over year, I grow concerned. I correctly nailed King as a breakout candidate in my 2024 predictions, but his 2025 market price was well out of my comfort zone and I advised taking the likes of Hunter Greene or Hunter Brown, who were both going two to three rounds after King, instead. 

I found it odd that King was involved in so many winter trade rumors, but it raised my suspicions that perhaps A.J. Preller and company had the same concerns I did. There was also the fact that King's contract held a mutual option after the 2025 season, and it appears very likely one or both sides will not be exercising that clause, making King a free agent this winter. 

Four-Star Reviews

Yoshinobu Yamamoto wins the NL Cy Young (ADP 55)

Final EAV: $25
Final Overall Rank: 39

Damn that meddling kid Paul Skenes. If not for Skenes, this prediction comes true and it would be in the five-star category. Yamamoto finished second in the league in ERA (to Skenes), tied for fifth in wins with another bold prediction hit below, was third in WHIP behind Skenes and Nick Pivetta, and eighth in strikeouts. Yamamoto may get a handful of first place votes, but Skenes rightly deserves the award.

Andres Munoz is a top-three closer this season (ADP 68)

Final EAV: $17
Final Overall Rank: 68

Munoz had a wonderful season, setting career-best marks in ERA and saves, but he technically finished as the fourth-most valuable closer behind Aroldis Chapman ($20), Edwin Diaz ($19), and Robert Suarez ($17.2 to $16.6.) Munoz's ADP was not too high, but he was eighth on the closer ADP board when the prediction was made behind Clase, Josh Hader, Diaz, Devin Williams, Mason Miller, Ryan Helsley, and Raisel Iglesias.

Clay Holmes is a top-250 pitcher (ADP 315)

Final EAV: $6
Final Overall Rank: 218

Holmes leaned into a new kick-change and a new cutter while dialing back his sinker to give the league a new look as he transitioned from a 30-save pitcher in 2024 to a 31-start pitcher in 2025. A 102 inning workload increase gives me pause for 2026, much like Boyd, but this bullpen to rotation conversion worked out extremely well considering it was premised on this:

This, to me, feels like the perfect opportunity for Holmes to introduce a new pitch. He has said he wants to pitch 160 innings this season, and to get there, he will need a little more help. He has been exclusively sinker/slider/sweeper for the past three seasons, but lefties have had more success reaching base because the batting average on the sinker has been anywhere from .207 (in 2023) to .346 (in 2024) in recent seasons. The sinker is a pitch that is mostly going to be put into play and left up to the Luck Dragons. Holmes employs the sinker to move away from lefties while the slider and sweeper dives in on their hands. Lefties hit .095 off the non-sinkers last year. It's clear Holmes needs to add to his repertoire to be a starter, and he knows as much as he told writers last month he has been working on adding his four-seamer and changeup back into his pitch mix.

Nobody in the Baltimore bullpen saves 20 games

This one barely made it under the wire as Felix Bautista finished the season with 19 saves. He, at times, looked like vintage Bautista, but his market price during draft season made too many assumptions on his return to health and I was not afraid to strongly recommend avoiding this situation for your primary closer.

Three-Star Reviews

Braxton Ashcraft is a top-250 pitcher (ADP 739)

Final EAV: -$3
Final Overall Rank: 427

I wanted to move this up to a four-star review because Ashcraft outperformed his ADP by over 300 points, but he was a negative dollar earner in 15-team mixed leagues, so this is more appropriate. Ashcraft's overall value was hindered by just four wins and zero saves, but he made a solid transition to a swing role with Pittsburgh after working exclusively as a starter in the minors. He has a lot of bigger names in front of him that demand attention, but his final StatCast profile looks extremely good for someone who was an afterthought during Draft and Hold season:

Calvin Faucher finishes inside the top 300 overall (ADP 443)

Final EAV: $1
Final Overall Rank: 320

Faucher just missed this benchmark, but he did indeed lead the Marlins with 15 saves, as well as a 3.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He was a perfectly useful third closer with four wins and 59 strikeouts to go along with the saves, and he outperforming his ADP by more than eight rounds. It certainly helped that Miami was not as bad as they were projected to be, although manager Clayton McCullough's bullpen usage often wasn't fantasy-friendly, as five other Marlin relievers got three or more saves on the season.

Drew Rasmussen is a top-10 closer this season (ADP 263)

Final EAV: $14
Final Overall Rank: 105

I firmly believed the Rays would follow their track record, trade Pete Fairbanks and move Rasmussen to the bullpen. If you drafted him believing that as I did, hopefully you were not counting on his saves and enjoyed his fantasy success because he absolutely shoved this season. His thrice-repaired elbow going from 28.2 to 150 innings on the season gives me tremendous pause heading into 2026.

Two-Star Reviews

Spencer Schwellenbach is not a top-80 pitcher (ADP 98)

Final EAV: $8
Final Overall Rank: 195

I made this a two-star review rather than a three-star one because my concerns about Schwellenbach's body holding up proved to be true, but he pitched incredibly well before his arm gave out on him after 110.2 innings of work over 17 starts.

One-Star Reviews

Kevin Gausman is not a top-80 pitcher (ADP 151)

Final EAV: $15
Final Overall Rank: 92

It appears I had a massive blind spot to older players on the Toronto roster. Gausman did not add a new pitch nor add any velocity, but he did add more strikeouts while reducing his walk rate, which helped him across the board. Otherwise, there was not anything demonstrably different in his skills, which is why he was able to post his fifth consecutive season of double-digit wins with an ERA below 4.00 while working at least 170 innings. This was not a George Springer-level miss, but it is close. 

Brandon Pfaadt is a top-50 pitcher (ADP 169)

Final EAV: $-2
Final Overall Rank: 397

Pfaadt once again struggled against lefties because he has not been able to find a pitch mixture to hold them at bay. His 2025 stats were all over the place: 22 of his 26 home runs came on the road, and both righties and lefties crushed him away from Chase Field. A 3.24 home ERA compared to a 7.71 road ERA tells the story. He tried six different pitches against lefties last season, but none of them worked, yet he stubbornly refused to add the one pitch I wanted him to bring back - his splitter.

Yusei Kikuchi is a top-40 pitcher (ADP 141)

Final EAV: -$1
Final Overall Rank: 379

The good news is that the Angels did not undo the progress the Astros made with Kikuchi and encouraged him to continue increased usage of his slider. The bad news is that Kikuchi's fastball was not as good as it was in 2024, and he was not able to break out as similarly-profiled pitchers such as Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, and Kevin Gausman had done before him. The home runs stayed at bay, but the walks bumped up a bit and the ineptness of the Angels helped keep Kikuchi at just seven wins in 33 starts, which further pushed down his value.

Landen Roupp is a top-150 pitcher (ADP 520)

Final EAV: $-4
Final Overall Ranking: 493

Roupp showed promise with a 21.4 percent strikeout rate and a 3.80 ERA, but was limited to just 22 starts, eight of which were quality starts, due to too many walks and a knee injury which prematurely ended his season. There is still promise here, but not until he throws more strikes.

Spencer Arrighetti is the best Spencer pitcher in 2025 (ADP 218)

Final EAV: -$10
Final Overall Rank: 500+

Arrighetti opened the season with a strong outing against the Mets, then followed it up with a bad one against the Twins. We did not see him again for four months after he broke his arm during fielding practice of all things. He was awful upon his return before elbow inflammation eventually shut him down. Schwellenbach and even Spencer Strider (-$4) were both more valuable Spencers. 

Kutter Crawford is a top-60 pitcher (ADP 246)

Final EAV: DNP
Final Overall Rank: 750+

Crawford never threw a regular-season pitch because he injured his wrist at home doing some housework while recovering from his knee surgery in the offseason.

Jordan Romano is a top-75 pitcher (ADP 266)

Final EAV: -$13
Final Overall Rank: 500+

The Phillies said they saw enough from a video scouting session to sign Romano in the offseason. The question begs to be asked: was it an AI deep fake? Romano was horrendous, as he could not throw strikes and allowed 10 home runs in 42.2 innings of work before the Phillies removed him from high-leverage work. The right-hander has now allowed 14 home runs in his last 58.1 innings of work after a two-year stretch in which he as one of the more dominant relievers in baseball. 

David Festa is a top-75 pitcher (ADP 284)

Final EAV: -$10
Final Overall Rank: 500+

The Slim Reaper struggled with ineffectiveness and injury all season, limiting his workload to 86.2 innings while pitching in the Twin Cities area. He is reportedly heading in for neurological thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which is not the type Zack Wheeler recently had. The track record of successfully returning from neurogenic TOS is 69 percent. Keep in mind, that's just the rate of pitchers successfully returning to the mound at all, and not them returning to their previous level of success.

Kumar Rocker is a top-75 pitcher (ADP 289)

Final EAV: -$13
Final Overall Rank: 500+

There were times when Rocker looked like the guy we fell in love with while he was in college. He had outings against the Rays, White Sox, and Tigers and allowed one run over those three outings. However, he had other outings where he put too much traffic on the bases, and he eventually pitched his way back to the minors by the end of July. I should have drafted Harold.

Quinn Mathews is a top-120 pitcher (ADP 409)

Final EAV: DNP
Final Overall Rank: 750+

Mathews never made it out of Triple-A, and with good reason. After dominating the lower levels of the minors in 2024, he had a small cup of coffee with Memphis at the end of that season and struck out 22, but walked 14 in 16.2 innings. Perhaps I should have given that more attention, as Mathews went on to strike out 107 while walking 74 in 94 innings for Memphis this year while also dealing with some shoulder trouble. Somehow, he managed to post a 3.93 ERA despite a 17.5 percent walk rate and a 1.55 WHIP, so credit to him and the Memphis bullpen. 

Osvaldo Bido is the top dollar earner on the Athletics staff (ADP 460)

Final EAV: $-17
Final Overall Rank: 500+

Bido was Sacramento'd. Thirteen of his 19 homers came at Sutter Health Park, but to be fair, Bido stunk on the road as well as at "home". His fastball did not perform nearly as well as it did in 2024, and everything else suffered along with it.

Beau Brieske leads Detroit in saves (ADP 498)

Final EAV: -$15
Final Overall Rank: 500+

Brieske worked 22 innings in 2025 and looked nothing like the guy who showed promise in 2024. A forearm injury finally gave us an explanation for why he was pitching so terribly. He tried to come back, but elbow soreness crept in and Detroit shut him down. 

DL Hall is a top-150 pitcher (ADP 520)

EAV: -$9
Final Overall Rank: 500+

Hall once again struggled with injury and was limited to 49.1 innings between Nashville and Milwaukee. The lefty is throwing six pitches now, but he does it in middle relief. His redeeming value is he has been tough to elevate as he allowed only two home runs in those 49.1 innings and has a 0.8 HR/9 over 114.2 innings at the major-league level. Too many dominoes must fall for him to have some fantasy relevance, but I still have faith in his arm having a successful summer in the majors at some point. 

Clayton Beeter is a top-200 pitcher (ADP 739)

Final EAV: -$11
Final Overall Rank: 500+

Beeter worked all of two innings with the Yankees and was eventually dealt to Washington for Amed Rosario. This is Beeter in a nutshell: he struck out 46 batters while walking 23 others in 27.2 innings between two organizations and multiple injuries. There is not a font large enough for me to fully encapsulate the IF needed to compose a sentence about Beeter's potential path forward. 

Jaden Hill has a positive dollar value in mixed leagues (ADP 743)

Final EAV: -$11
Final Overall Rank: 500+

I have never once gotten a Rockies pitching bold prediction right, and I may need to adjust my approach an instead boldly predict how bad a pitcher from this organization can be, rather than attempting to wishcast any level of success onto someone. The challenge with the traditional approach is that deep NL-only fantasy managers or 50-round draft-and-hold folks are the only ones even considering a Colorado pitcher, so I try to focus on the relievers. Hill had a terrific 20.2 innings in Triple-A, striking out 31 batters while walking just four and surrendering one home run. However, his 29.1 innings with the Rockies saw 31 strikeouts to 12 walks in 29.1 innings. All in all, he was effective for a Rockies reliever, as a 3.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP could function as team MVP for that squad, but a single win and zero saves was not enough to push Hill into any level of fantasy value.

Zach Brzykcy is a top 200 pitcher (No ADP)

Final EAV: -$18
Final Overall Rank: 750+

Brzykcy worked 49 innings in the Nats organization between the minors and majors with 55 strikeouts, 33 walks, and 10 homers allowed in that time. Oh, did I mention the 47 earned runs in 49 innings of work? Oooooooooof to the 10th power.

Gus Varland leads the White Sox in saves (ADP 751)

Final EAV: DNP
Final Overall Rank: 750+

In all fairness, we were talking about a team which many doubted could even win 40 games, and yet they went out and won 60! Varland dealt with injuries and worked 12.1 innings on the season between Chicago and Arizona, and Jordan Leasure led the club with seven saves as Will Venable used eight different relievers to close out games in 2025.

Below are the results in chart form:

In summary, the final bold prediction scorecard combining hitters and pitchers breaks down is shown below. 30 percent of the predictions ended up three stars or higher, which is where I hope to end up eight months after making these predictions. Nearly a fifth of them becoming five-star outcomes is wonderful, but I am no Jordan Belfort. You can certainly judge me on my losers, as nearly half of these bold predictions were well short of expectations. 

Time to get cracking on the 2026 Bold Predictions... and I'm taking requests!

Five-Star Reviews (18.3%): 

• Kyle Schwarber
• Shea Langeliers
• Brandon Nimmo
• Jonathan Aranda
• Lenyn Sosa
• Dillon Dingler
• Michael King
• Matthew Boyd
• Nick Lodolo
• Emmanuel Clase
• Noah Cameron

Four-Star Reviews (6.7%): 

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto
• Andres Munoz
• Clay Holmes
• Baltimore Bullpen

Three-Star Reviews (5%):

• Braxton Ashcraft
• Calvin Faucher
• Drew Rasmussen

Two-Star Reviews (10%):

• Jordan Westburg
• Xander Bogaerts
• Nathaniel Lowe
• Jesus Sanchez
• Spencer Horwitz
• Spencer Schwellenbach

One-Star Reviews (48.3%): 

• Pete Crow-Armstrong
• Michael Toglia
• Austin Wells
• Jorge Soler
• Lourdes Gurriel
• Sean Murphy
• Jonathan India
• Evan Carter
• Kristian Campbell
• Jhonkensy Noel
• Dylan Moore
• Gavin Lux
• Emmanuel Rodriguez
• Jerar Encarnacion
• Pedro Leon
• Steward Berroa
• Spencer Arrighetti
• Kutter Crawford
• Jordan Romano
• David Festa
• Kumar Rocker
• Quinn Mathews
• Osvaldo Bido
• Beau Brieske
• DL Hall
• Clayton Beeter
• Jaden Hill
• Zach Brzykcy
• Gus Varland