Yusei Kikuchi

32-Year-Old PitcherSP

Toronto Blue Jays

2023 Stats

W-L

11-6

ERA

3.86

WHIP

1.27

181

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Kikuchi is at a career crossroads as his non COVID-shortened seasons look terrible by most measures. His ERA and ERA estimators have been messy in each of those seasons, and then he further compounded problems in 2022 with a noticeable spike in his walk rate with a healthy dose of homers. Just six pitchers have ever thrown at least 100 innings with walk rates of at least 12% while allowing 2 homers per nine innings as Kikuchi did and those names include Oliver Perez, Andy Benes, and Derek Holland and each of their ERAs were over a full run higher than what Kikuchi somehow pulled off last season at 5.19. The strikeout rate was am impressive as he ran away from his cutter and threw more fastballs, but only his changeup was tough to hit for the league. It is perplexing to see someone with such poor overall numbers to have four pitches with Whiff rates above 25%, but that is what Kikuchi pulled off last season. Perhaps there is a brighter future for him in relief where he can pump up the velocity in shorter stints because he has had issues sustaining that over the course of a season. Funny data point: did you know Kikuchi's four-seam fastball generated more swings and misses in 2022 than four-seamers thrown by Justin Verlander and Alek Manoah? Now you do. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#508

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'0"

Weight 200

DOB 6/17/1991

Born Morioka, Japan

College None

Drafted 2019 SEA

Cruises to 11th win

PToronto Blue Jays

September 30, 2023

Kikuchi (11-6) picked up the win Friday, giving up three runs on five hits and two walks over five-plus innings in an 11-4 victory over the Rays. He struck out four.

ANALYSIS
The southpaw blanked Tampa for five innings before fading in the sixth and giving up three straight extra-base hits to open the frame, but the Jays were already up 8-0 at that point. Kikuchi stumbles into a likely postseason run -- Toronto needs just one more win, or a Seattle loss, to clinch a wild-card spot -- with a 5.02 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 35:10 K:BB through 28.2 innings in September.

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Pitching Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Yusei Kikuchi generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Yusei Kikuchi generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-31%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-20%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-23%

BAA vs LHP

2021

-46%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2021vs Left	.184	386	104	27	65	10	2	13
Since 2021vs Right	.266	1434	364	141	338	66	4	64
2023vs Left	.214	141	39	8	28	5	0	6
2023vs Right	.266	559	142	40	137	22	1	21
2022vs Left	.198	99	25	9	17	3	2	2
2022vs Right	.256	355	99	49	76	18	1	21
2021vs Left	.147	146	40	10	20	2	0	5
2021vs Right	.271	520	123	52	125	26	2	22
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-7%

ERA at Home

2023

-5%

ERA on Road

2022

-23%

ERA at Home

2021

-9%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2021Home	4.22	1.19	211.1	13	10	1	10.3	3.3	1.7
Since 2021Away	4.54	1.49	214.0	11	12	0	9.5	3.8	1.6
2023Home	3.97	1.18	79.1	6	3	0	9.9	3.1	1.6
2023Away	3.77	1.35	88.1	5	3	0	9.6	2.1	1.3
2022Home	4.58	1.16	55.0	5	3	1	11.8	3.8	2.5
2022Away	5.91	1.91	45.2	1	4	0	10.2	6.9	1.6
2021Home	4.21	1.22	77.0	2	4	0	9.7	3.2	1.3
2021Away	4.61	1.41	80.0	5	5	0	9.0	3.9	1.8
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Yusei Kikuchi compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.77

K/9

9.7

BB/9

2.6

HR/9

1.4

Fastball

95.1 mph

ERA

3.86

WHIP

1.27

BABIP

.321

GB/FB

1.17

Left On Base

77.1%

Exit Velocity

83.3 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.1%

Spin Rate

2345 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

25.8%

Swinging Strike

12.6%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Yusei Kikuchi Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2016

Kikuchi appeared set to deliver the breakout campaign that many projected prior to the 2021 season, maintaining a 3.46 ERA with an 81:26 K:BB across his first 80.2 innings and 13 starts. However, he crumbled from there, posting a 5.42 ERA across his last 16 outings. Perhaps coincidentally, his problems began with the crackdown on the use of foreign substances. When viewing Kikuchi's profile as a whole, home runs remain a significant problem (1.6 HR/9) and his walk rate also remains higher than would be desirable (9.3 BB%). However, by far the biggest problem for Kikuchi is the amount of hard contact he surrenders, highlighted by an 11% barrel rate, 47% hard hit rate, and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. Kikuchi agreed to a three-year, $36 million deal with the Blue Jays and will be pitching in the AL East for the foreseeable future.

On the surface, Kikuchi has had some rough sledding in his transition from pitching in Japan to pitching in the majors. Two consecutive season of bad ratios and a lack of wins while pitching for a perpetually rebuilding Seattle franchise. If you solely focus on the surface stats, you will miss the progress he is making as a pitcher. The southpaw added a new cutter in 2020 and made it his primary pitch, but like with anything new, it took some time getting used to. Kikuchi struggled with walks, but still struck out nearly a quarter of the hitters he faced and his expected stats do not look like they belong to a guy coming off a 5.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP season. The cutter helped him greatly against righties as their weighted on-base average against him dropped 75 points year over year. Seattle is not a great team, but Kikuchi is a good pitcher whose surface stats create a strong buying opportunity in 2021.

Kikuchi fell far short of expectations in his first major-league season, posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP after recording a 2.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over three seasons in Japan. The 28-year-old struggled to miss bats, posting a 16.1 K% that would have ranked fourth worst among major-league starters had he logged enough innings to qualify, along with a middling 8.8% swinging-strike rate. The Mariners took measures to limit Kikuchi's workload as he adjusted to the rigors of the MLB schedule. The southpaw served up a whopping 36 home runs despite throwing only 161.2 frames, with right-handed batters teeing off to the tune of .304/.359/.545 against Kikuchi. He figures to have a rotation spot on a rebuilding Mariners club, but there is little reason to think a big improvement is coming in his second big-league season. Throw your dart elsewhere.

A three-time All-Star in Japan (2013, 2017, 2018), Kikuchi was 14-4 with a 3.08 ERA, an 8.4 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 in 2018. He has a mid-90s fastball that he uses to set up a plus slider. While not regarded in quite the same star tier of Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish, the 27-year-old lefty still projects as at least a solid mid-rotation starter in MLB. Kikuchi signed a three-year, $43 million deal with the Mariners, with a $13 million player option for a fourth year and a team option for a four-year, $66 million extension after the first three years. He was dominant in 2017, logging 217 strikeouts in 187.2 innings -- both career highs. Kikuchi was similarly dominant in 2018 until a shoulder injury caused him to miss a month, and while he was able to return, he wasn't quite the same after that. He will be adapting to a new schedule where he'll pitch more frequently, so we should not expect the 6-foot hurler to log more than 160 innings on a rebuilding Mariners team.

Kikuchi attracted attention as a high schooler for his hard fastball and stated desire to forego a pro career in Japan and jump straight to the majors. That didn't happen, and injuries have so far deterred him from reaching his potential. Still only 24, Kikuchi showed signs of improvement in 2015 and if he can put together a couple of healthy seasons, he could establish himself as a quality lefty.

More Fantasy News

Goes four innings vs. Tampa

PToronto Blue Jays

September 24, 2023

Kikuchi did not factor into the decision Sunday, allowing three runs on nine hits over four innings against Tampa Bay. He struck out seven.

ANALYSIS
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Lined up for Sunday

PToronto Blue Jays

September 21, 2023

Kikuchi (neck) is scheduled to start Sunday's game at Tampa Bay, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.

ANALYSIS
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Removed due to cramp

PToronto Blue Jays

Back

September 19, 2023

Kikuchi was removed from Tuesday's 7-1 win over the Yankees with a left upper trap muscle cramp, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.

ANALYSIS
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Sharp in no-decision

PToronto Blue Jays

September 9, 2023

Kikuchi came away with a no-decision Friday in the Blue Jays' 5-4 win over the Royals, allowing one run on three hits and a walk over five innings. He struck out eight.

ANALYSIS
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Takes fifth loss

PToronto Blue Jays

September 2, 2023

Kikuchi (9-5) allowed six runs (two earned) on six hits and four walks while striking out six over 4.2 innings, taking the loss versus the Rockies on Saturday.

ANALYSIS
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