Raisel Iglesias

Reds fans will no longer have Iglesias to blame for a slow start to their season, as the closer was sent to the Angels prior to the Winter Meetings in December in a cost savings measure. Aside from a badly blown save in St. Louis and a second blown save in Pittsburgh where he fell one out short of recording the five requested of him, Iglesias had a pretty good season for the Reds, converting eight saves while earning four wins and two holds. His K% jumped from 31.9 to 34.1, his swinging strike rate went from 15.6% to 19.2%, and his average fastball velocity actually increased from 95.5 to 96.2 mph. More importantly, he allowed just one homer in the regular season. He moves to a better ballpark in Anaheim and is the undisputed closer, though manager Joe Maddon is notorious for being just as "creative" in his bullpen management as David Bell is with the Reds.

We warned of a dropoff for Iglesias, and it came to fruition, as the Reds closer gave up 12 homers, saw his ERA climb from 2.38 to 4.16 and was saddled with 12 losses. He really struggled in non-save situations, and blanched at manager David Bell's usage patterns early in the season. And yet ... fantasy owners weren't punished for his shortcomings. He had a career-high 34 saves and struck out 89 batters, good for a career-best 31.9 K%. Moreover, his fastball velocity remained constant (95.2 mph in 2018, 95.5 mph last year) while he adjusted his pitch mix to throw more four-seamers than sinkers. He really needs to junk the sinker altogether - according to Baseball Savant, opposing batters hit .394 while slugging .758 against it. The Reds intend to beef up their bullpen over the offseason, which could threaten his closer job, or instead allow him to pivot to a traditional closer's role.

At first glance, 2018 appears to be Iglesias' best season. His 30 saves were a career high, and while that total may seem underwhelming, consider that the Reds won 67 games and were outscored by 123 runs. Similarly, he posted career-low ratios, with a 2.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. But if you dig a little deeper, some of his underlying skills declined. He gave up 12 homers in 72 innings after allowing only five the year before, nearly tripling his HR/9 rate and more than doubling his HR/FB rate from 8.3% to 18.8%. His hard-hit rate skyrocketed from 24.2% to 34.8%. The primary culprits were his sinker and four-seamer, as both lost about a mile per hour. Opposing hitters clubbed nine of those homers and slugged .544 against those two pitches. He threw his four-seamer less than ever, mixing in his changeup more, perhaps as a result. With these underlying numbers, there's a risk of a drop-off in 2019.

The Reds wanted to move away from a traditional closer setup in their bullpen in 2017, with up to four different relievers available to close games and/or work in multiple capacities. It didn't quite work out that way, not necessarily because the bullpen plan wasn't working, but rather because the starting rotation was so awful that the best parts of the bullpen frequently had to come into the game in critical early situations. As a result, Iglesias ended up getting 28 of the Reds' 33 saves, blowing just two chances. He was fantastic for most of the season, though he gave up runs in his final four outings. Don't let recency bias override your general perception of Iglesias, however -- his velocity wasn't down in those outings and he allowed just one homer in that stretch. He'll be the unquestioned closer on a team that appears to be on the upswing, meaning that his opportunities won't be as sparse.

A popular breakout candidate last year, Iglesias indeed achieved a good deal of success in 2016 but it was out of the Reds' bullpen rather than in the rotation. He hit the DL with a shoulder impingement in early May and pitched exclusively in relief upon his return, and the team has already committed to Iglesias staying in the bullpen in 2017. While a permanent move to the bullpen should help preserve Iglesias' shoulder, he now has a firm ceiling on his fantasy upside as all relievers inherently do. Complicating matters is the fact that manager Bryan Price has suggested he will keep roles fluid at the back end, using his best relievers in the highest-leverage spots regardless of the inning, and sometimes for multiple frames. Iglesias was used for multiple innings out of the bullpen 17 times last season and while more innings mean more Ks and a greater weight on the ratios, it also means Iglesias may have to share save opportunities with the likes of Michael Lorenzen, Drew Storen and Tony Cingrani.

It was tough to pin down a reasonable expectation for Iglesias entering 2015. His contract suggested that he would get a shot to contribute, but early reports pointed toward the bullpen and the presence of Aroldis Chapman meant it wouldn't be a high-impact role. Iglesias made one start before going to Triple-A for a couple weeks. Then he split May between the rotation and bullpen before suffering an oblique injury that cost him over a month. He spent his final two months starting and impressed in the role. His 3.82 ERA in that span is a product of small sample volatility because the skills were tremendous (0.99 WHIP, 27.8-percent K rate, 6.7-percent walk rate, and 53.1-percent GB% in 70.2 innings). Unfortunately, his season ended with shoulder fatigue, though that was precautionary to manage innings. There are still questions about him holding up for 30-plus starts, but the skills are such that even 25 starts would be very valuable.

Iglesias has precious little professional experience, having just signed as a Cuban defector in late June, but he could climb the ranks of the Reds' organization quickly. He was clocked at 92-94 mph with his fastball in the Arizona Fall League and displayed an excellent curve. Given his contract (seven years, $27 million) and experience in Cuba, it wouldn't be a shock if he were working out of the Reds bullpen at some point in 2015, if not even the beginning of the season.