MLB Picks: NLCS Game 2, Brewers vs Dodgers
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Betting playoff baseball is a completely different animal as you have the best pitching, hitting, bullpens, etc. going against each other. Rotations are no longer lined up like they were in the last round, so we are seeing larger moneylines and totals.
There will be more bullpen games, so it is important to try and piece together what you think each team will do in regards to pitching. This also means the benches will come into play a lot more in a 7 game series.
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Dodgers vs Brewers Best Bets and Predictions
We get a huge pitching matchup in Game 2 of the NLCS Wednesday in the Brewers/Dodgers with Freddy Peralta against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers closed -160 and 7.5 on Monday night and won the game 2-1. The Brewers turned a miraculous double play which could have made this game 4-1 or 5-1, but they also had the bases loaded in the 9th with a strong shot to win the game.
In Game 2, the Dodgers were installed as -120 road favorites and saw the number move to -130 in some spots with a total of 7.0-7.5.
The Brewers took all 6 games against the Dodgers in the regular season. They rank 9th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, while the Dodgers rank 4th. The concern for the Brewers on Tuesday is that they only hit .228 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days at home. The Dodgers hit .282 on the road against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
The Brewers are 55-29 at home and the Dodgers are 43-40 on the road. I wrote a lot about the Dodgers' road woes in the regular season and faded them a lot. But the playoffs allow you to get a reset, and the Dodgers rotation is setup nicely, but the bullpen is still a liability. The Brewers were just 12-12 in the month of September, but 10-6 at home. The Dodgers are now 6-1 in the playoffs allowing 25 runs (3.6 runs per game).
Freddy Peralta has huge home/road splits with a 1.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP at home versus a 3.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road. He is a strong starter with a 32 percent strikeout rate first time through the lineup. He also finished very strongly in September with a 38 percent strikeout rate. He is significantly better against right-handed pitching, so keep an eye on the Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman at the top.
Since August 17th 2024, the Brewers are 16-6 in Freddy Peralta's last 22 home starts and he has strong BVP numbers against this Dodgers lineup. He faced them twice this season, once at home and on the road. The home start was strong as he went 6 innings and allowed 0 runs, with 7 strikeouts and just 1 walk.
Yamamoto has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he looked vulnerable in his last start. The UNDER has hit in 7 out of his last 9 games. He has faced the Brewers once and only lasted 0.2 innings on July 7th giving up 5 runs and 3 of them were earned.
This is a tough game to call, and the Brewers cannot afford to go down 0-2 at home facing the next 3 games on the road in Los Angeles.
Best MLB Bets, NLCS Game 2
- Brewers ML for 1 unit (Bet365 +110)
- Dodgers/Brewers OVER 7.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -125)
- Yamamoto UNDER 16.5 outs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)