Luke Weaver
Luke Weaver
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Arizona Diamondbacks
10-Day IL
Injury Forearm
Est. Return 6/28/2019
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Drafted just outside the top 100 last spring, Weaver was one of 2018's bigger disappointments, as he ended the season in a mop-up role. It's probably too early to completely write off the 25-year-old right-hander, who was sent to Arizona as the headliner in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Weaver's first-pitch strike rate along with his swinging-strike rate were virtually the same as the previous season. However, in 2017 Weaver posted a 28.6% strikeout rate, compared to a 19.9% mark last season, perhaps because the book was out on his shallow repertoire. Whiffs aside, Weaver's control and command slid last season, as he walked more while allowing more homers. He still lacks a quality third pitch (opposing batters slugged .589 against his curveball), and his top two pitches (fastball, changeup) were not as dominant as they needed to be for him to have sustainable success. His upside is limited to a low-innings mid-rotation starter until that pitch mix improves. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a contract with the Cardinals in June of 2014 that includes a $1.843 million signing bonus. Traded to the Diamondbacks in December of 2018.
Opts for conservative treatment
PArizona Diamondbacks
Forearm
May 31, 2019
Weaver has been diagnosed with a mild flexor pronator strain and a minor UCL sprain, and he'll be "treated conservatively," Richard Morin of The Arizona Republic reports.
ANALYSIS
The fact that Weaver has opted for conservative treatment means he won't be going under the knife, though the Diamondbacks also haven't released a timetable for when he could resume throwing. The team should reveal more information once the right-hander is cleared to begin a throwing program.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
Even Split
2019
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-27%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .261 570 123 50 133 24 2 15
Since 2017vs Right .262 545 138 35 131 27 2 17
2019vs Left .232 136 35 8 29 7 0 2
2019vs Right .234 118 33 6 26 9 0 4
2018vs Left .291 324 57 34 83 14 2 11
2018vs Right .261 285 64 20 67 10 2 8
2017vs Left .210 110 31 8 21 3 0 2
2017vs Right .288 142 41 9 38 8 0 5
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-30%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-36%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-26%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-41%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 5.02 1.43 127.1 4 9 0 8.6 3.0 1.3
Since 2017Away 3.49 1.27 131.2 14 7 0 9.6 2.9 0.9
2019Home 3.77 1.15 28.2 0 2 0 8.8 2.2 1.3
2019Away 2.41 1.07 33.2 4 1 0 10.7 1.9 0.5
2018Home 5.74 1.60 64.1 1 5 0 7.8 3.6 1.5
2018Away 4.25 1.40 72.0 6 6 0 8.1 3.5 1.0
2017Home 4.72 1.34 34.1 3 2 0 9.7 2.6 1.0
2017Away 2.77 1.15 26.0 4 0 0 12.1 2.4 1.0
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Stat Review
How does Luke Weaver compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 40 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.86
 
K/9
9.8
 
BB/9
2.0
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
93.9 mph
 
ERA
3.03
 
WHIP
1.11
 
BABIP
.313
 
GB/FB
1.25
 
Left On Base
77.6%
 
Exit Velocity
89.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.0%
 
Spin Rate
2045 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
41.9%
 
Swinging Strike
11.8%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Say what you will about a "soft" schedule for Weaver; he was excellent in 2017. The right-hander posted a 2.05 ERA over his first 11 starts, and while a couple of poor performances at the end of the year inflated his overall numbers, Weaver finished with a 3.17 FIP and 2.93 xFIP over 60.1 innings at the big-league level. He averaged 10.7 K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9 -- he had the 28th-best K-BB percentage among 274 pitchers with at least 60 innings. Weaver did well to keep the ball on the ground (49.4 percent GB%) and limit hard contact, resulting in a .287 xwOBA. He is still primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, but the changeup is a dominant pitch, and his curveball is coming along. The only real concern with Weaver is his workload. He totaled just 138 innings between the majors and minors last year, his highest total as a professional, after throwing 119.1 combined frames in 2016.
Weaver got his first taste of the majors at the latter end of the 2016 season. He pieced together a few rough outings and ended the year with a 5.70 ERA and 1.60 WHIP that was built over nine games (36.1 innings). Lefties were particularly tough for Weaver and they went 23-for-69 (.377) against the 23-year-old. Fortunately for the club, he showed signs of promise and produced a 27 percent strikeout rate in that time. Weaver has shown he's a capable starter in the minors, as he dominated his 12 starts at Double-A Springfield in 2016. Heading into 2017, the Cardinals may have Weaver compete for a spot at the back of their rotation, or could opt to use him from the bullpen as they did at the end of 2016. However, the most likely course of action will be to send him to Triple-A Memphis, where he's only appeared in one game to this point, to keep developing his breaking pitches until he's deemed MLB-ready.
Weaver appears to be a third pitch away from being a No. 3 starter, thanks to a low-90s fastball and a filthy changeup that will work as an out pitch at the highest level. That combination was enough for him to breeze through the pitcher-friendly Florida State League with a 1.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts in 105.1 innings. Those numbers rightfully put him squarely on the radar of dynasty league owners, but most reports suggest his curveball lags way behind the rest of his arsenal. Without that third pitch, there is not much to see here, so Weaver should still be seen as a work in progress. Fortunately he is in a competent organization, and at least two years away from the big leagues, so it is OK that he is not a finished product. He will head to Double-A Springfield in 2016, where it should become fairly obvious if he has improved his breaking ball.
The 27th overall selection out of Florida State in the 2014 amateur draft, Weaver is expected to work his way through the Cardinals' system rather quickly and could be competing for a roster spot as soon as 2016. Weaver was only able to log 9.1 professional innings with the club's rookie and High-A affiliates, getting six starts and striking out 12. Expect Weaver to start 2015 in either Low-A or High-A for the Cardinals, possibly finishing the season in Double-A if he pitches well. Weaver has drawn praise as one of the lowest risk pitchers drafted. Fantasy owners still shouldn't expect anything on the MLB level until 2016, with 2017 being the most likely scenario.
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Seeking second opinion
PArizona Diamondbacks
Forearm
May 27, 2019
Weaver has been diagnosed with a right forearm strain and will seek a second opinion, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
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Headed to the IL
PArizona Diamondbacks
Forearm
May 27, 2019
Weaver (forearm) was placed on the injured list Monday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
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Earns win before departing
PArizona Diamondbacks
Forearm
May 27, 2019
Weaver (4-3) earned the win in Sunday's 6-2 win over the Giants before leaving the game with a forearm injury.
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Nursing forearm tightness
PArizona Diamondbacks
Forearm
May 26, 2019
Weaver left Sunday's game against San Francisco due to right forearm tightness, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
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Leaves with trainer
PArizona Diamondbacks
Undisclosed
May 26, 2019
Weaver walked off the field in the sixth inning of Sunday's game against the Giants with the team trainer after suffering an apparent injury. He allowed one run on six hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings prior to exiting.
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