Luke Weaver
Luke Weaver
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Weaver was the only pitcher in MLB tagged with nine losses despite making only 12 starts during the shortened season, and the rest of his numbers (6.58 ERA and 1.56 WHIP) also weren't pretty. It's quite the contrast to 2019, when the right-hander dazzled with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts before going down with injury. His flyball rate increased more than 10 percentage points to 48.4%, while his HR/9 more than doubled to 1.74. However, the 4.66 FIP indicates he also didn't receive much help from his defense. Weaver remains a strong bet to retain a rotation spot to begin 2021, and he's a reasonable buy-low candidate following the rough campaign considering his workable strikeout and walk rates (23.3% and 7.6%, respectively). Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#477
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $1.95 million contract with the Diamondbacks in January of 2021.
Bounces back with scoreless outing
PArizona Diamondbacks
May 10, 2021
Weaver (2-3) allowed four hits over 6.1 scoreless innings Monday, striking out six and earning a win over Miami.
ANALYSIS
Weaver had been stuck in a brutal stretch entering Monday's game, allowing 17 runs in as many innings while going 0-3 over his last four starts. He gave up two extra-base hits in the shutout appearance but was never in too much danger. The 27-year-old right-hander lowered his season ERA to 5.00 through 36 innings. He's projected to take the mound this weekend at home against Washington.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
86
Last 10 Games
86
Last 5 Games
86
How many pitches does Luke Weaver generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Luke Weaver generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .264 304 72 23 73 16 0 12
Since 2019vs Right .242 322 81 20 72 21 6 9
2021vs Left .264 58 13 4 14 4 0 3
2021vs Right .238 94 22 7 20 4 4 3
2020vs Left .319 106 24 11 30 5 0 7
2020vs Right .257 108 25 7 26 8 2 2
2019vs Left .225 140 35 8 29 7 0 2
2019vs Right .230 120 34 6 26 9 0 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-81%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-2%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-40%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 4.03 1.30 67.0 3 5 0 9.1 3.2 0.9
Since 2019Away 5.04 1.26 80.1 4 9 0 9.5 2.1 1.6
2021Home 1.56 0.87 17.1 2 0 0 9.3 2.6 0.0
2021Away 8.20 1.61 18.2 0 3 0 8.2 2.9 2.9
2020Home 6.43 1.86 21.0 1 3 0 9.4 5.1 1.3
2020Away 6.58 1.35 26.0 0 5 0 9.3 2.1 2.1
2019Home 3.77 1.15 28.2 0 2 0 8.8 2.2 1.3
2019Away 2.27 1.01 35.2 4 1 0 10.3 1.8 0.5
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Stat Review
How does Luke Weaver compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.18
 
K/9
8.8
 
BB/9
2.8
 
HR/9
1.5
 
Fastball
93.4 mph
 
ERA
5.00
 
WHIP
1.25
 
BABIP
.296
 
GB/FB
1.26
 
Left On Base
68.3%
 
Exit Velocity
82.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.0%
 
Spin Rate
2262 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.9%
 
Swinging Strike
11.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luke Weaver
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Yesterday
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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Aces Not High
8 days ago
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MLB Betting: Wednesday Best Bets
11 days ago
Joe Sheehan offers his best bets on the board for Wednesday's MLB action, including a look at the total in Washington where a pair of shaky bullpens could play a major factor between the Braves and the Nats.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Weaver was pitching extremely well in 2019 before he went down in late May with forearm tightness, which held him out for all but two innings the rest of the season. Weaver emphasized his cutter in 2019 to give him a more effective third pitch, and saw a resurgence in his strikeout rate and a stat line that looked a lot closer to his 2017 promise than his 2018 disappointment. Those worried about the forearm issue should take solace in watching what Tyler Glasnow did last year. Both pitchers were shut down with similar issues, yet Glasnow came back late in the season and was throwing darts in the postseason as if he hadn't missed a beat. Weaver's lack of work after the injury may hold down his cost on draft day, and where you take him should depend on your appetite for risks. The move to Arizona was a good one for him, and he was taking a positive step forward before the injury.
Drafted just outside the top 100 last spring, Weaver was one of 2018's bigger disappointments, as he ended the season in a mop-up role. It's probably too early to completely write off the 25-year-old right-hander, who was sent to Arizona as the headliner in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Weaver's first-pitch strike rate along with his swinging-strike rate were virtually the same as the previous season. However, in 2017 Weaver posted a 28.6% strikeout rate, compared to a 19.9% mark last season, perhaps because the book was out on his shallow repertoire. Whiffs aside, Weaver's control and command slid last season, as he walked more while allowing more homers. He still lacks a quality third pitch (opposing batters slugged .589 against his curveball), and his top two pitches (fastball, changeup) were not as dominant as they needed to be for him to have sustainable success. His upside is limited to a low-innings mid-rotation starter until that pitch mix improves.
Say what you will about a "soft" schedule for Weaver; he was excellent in 2017. The right-hander posted a 2.05 ERA over his first 11 starts, and while a couple of poor performances at the end of the year inflated his overall numbers, Weaver finished with a 3.17 FIP and 2.93 xFIP over 60.1 innings at the big-league level. He averaged 10.7 K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9 -- he had the 28th-best K-BB percentage among 274 pitchers with at least 60 innings. Weaver did well to keep the ball on the ground (49.4 percent GB%) and limit hard contact, resulting in a .287 xwOBA. He is still primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, but the changeup is a dominant pitch, and his curveball is coming along. The only real concern with Weaver is his workload. He totaled just 138 innings between the majors and minors last year, his highest total as a professional, after throwing 119.1 combined frames in 2016.
Weaver got his first taste of the majors at the latter end of the 2016 season. He pieced together a few rough outings and ended the year with a 5.70 ERA and 1.60 WHIP that was built over nine games (36.1 innings). Lefties were particularly tough for Weaver and they went 23-for-69 (.377) against the 23-year-old. Fortunately for the club, he showed signs of promise and produced a 27 percent strikeout rate in that time. Weaver has shown he's a capable starter in the minors, as he dominated his 12 starts at Double-A Springfield in 2016. Heading into 2017, the Cardinals may have Weaver compete for a spot at the back of their rotation, or could opt to use him from the bullpen as they did at the end of 2016. However, the most likely course of action will be to send him to Triple-A Memphis, where he's only appeared in one game to this point, to keep developing his breaking pitches until he's deemed MLB-ready.
Weaver appears to be a third pitch away from being a No. 3 starter, thanks to a low-90s fastball and a filthy changeup that will work as an out pitch at the highest level. That combination was enough for him to breeze through the pitcher-friendly Florida State League with a 1.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts in 105.1 innings. Those numbers rightfully put him squarely on the radar of dynasty league owners, but most reports suggest his curveball lags way behind the rest of his arsenal. Without that third pitch, there is not much to see here, so Weaver should still be seen as a work in progress. Fortunately he is in a competent organization, and at least two years away from the big leagues, so it is OK that he is not a finished product. He will head to Double-A Springfield in 2016, where it should become fairly obvious if he has improved his breaking ball.
The 27th overall selection out of Florida State in the 2014 amateur draft, Weaver is expected to work his way through the Cardinals' system rather quickly and could be competing for a roster spot as soon as 2016. Weaver was only able to log 9.1 professional innings with the club's rookie and High-A affiliates, getting six starts and striking out 12. Expect Weaver to start 2015 in either Low-A or High-A for the Cardinals, possibly finishing the season in Double-A if he pitches well. Weaver has drawn praise as one of the lowest risk pitchers drafted. Fantasy owners still shouldn't expect anything on the MLB level until 2016, with 2017 being the most likely scenario.
More Fantasy News
Remains in rotation
PArizona Diamondbacks
May 8, 2021
Weaver will remain in the rotation and is expected to start Monday at home against the Marlins, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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No decision yet
PArizona Diamondbacks
May 7, 2021
Manager Torey Lovullo and his staff are having discussions about the next steps for Weaver after a rough outing Wednesday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports. "We're right in the middle of that conversation," Lovullo said. "We're trying to make the best decisions moving forward to help this team win baseball games every single night."
ANALYSIS
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Takes loss Wednesday
PArizona Diamondbacks
May 5, 2021
Weaver (1-3) allowed six runs on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts in four innings in a loss to Miami on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles in win
PArizona Diamondbacks
April 29, 2021
Weaver allowed three runs on five hits while walking three and striking out four over four innings in Thursday's win over the Rockies. He wasn't involved in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Falls to Atlanta
PArizona Diamondbacks
April 23, 2021
Weaver (1-2) took the loss Friday, giving up four runs on six hits and four walks over five innings as the Diamondbacks were downed 5-4 by Atlanta. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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