Harrison Bader
Harrison Bader
26-Year-Old OutfielderOF
St. Louis Cardinals
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Bader is one of those players who is valued much more by the real baseball team than fantasy players. Bader displays exceptional defensive abilities in the outfield, has elite speed and a top 20th percentile barrel rate. Yet, that is where the fun ends and his speed and Barrel% only go so far in fantasy. Bader did not do anything in 2020 he had not already showed at the big-league level other than strike out at his career-worst rate. He has been rather terrible in right-on-right matchups the past two seasons with a .210/.319/.384 slash line and a 30% strikeout rate and his expected stats from both 2019 and 2020 paint a disappointing picture. Bader's defense will keep him on the roster and in the lineup more often than not, but he is headed down the Kevin Kiermaier career path where you are left wanting so much more that simply never arrives. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#524
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Cardinals in January of 2021.
Smacks second homer
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
May 3, 2021
Bader went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in Monday's 6-5 win over the Mets.
ANALYSIS
After launching his first homer of the year Sunday, Bader went yard again in the second inning Monday off Joey Lucchesi. The 26-year-old is just 3-for-14 over four games since rejoining the lineup, but Bader's power surge is encouraging.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
3
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+15%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+692%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+87%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .770 134 17 7 15 1 .215 .291 .479
Since 2019vs Right .668 419 59 10 40 15 .205 .323 .345
2021vs Left 5.000 1 1 1 1 0 1.000 1.000 4.000
2021vs Right .631 24 2 1 5 2 .190 .250 .381
2020vs Left 1.116 27 7 2 4 0 .333 .407 .708
2020vs Right .596 95 12 1 6 3 .177 .305 .291
2019vs Left .640 106 9 4 10 1 .177 .255 .385
2019vs Right .693 300 45 8 29 10 .215 .334 .359
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+16%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+44%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+20%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .679 261 43 9 25 9 .177 .312 .367
Since 2019Away .709 281 32 8 28 7 .231 .317 .393
2021Home .886 12 2 1 2 1 .273 .250 .636
2021Away .762 13 1 1 4 1 .182 .308 .455
2020Home .857 55 12 3 7 2 .200 .345 .511
2020Away .595 56 6 0 1 1 .208 .304 .292
2019Home .614 194 29 5 16 6 .164 .306 .308
2019Away .736 212 25 7 23 5 .239 .321 .415
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Stat Review
How does Harrison Bader compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.50
 
BB Rate
8.0%
 
K Rate
16.0%
 
BABIP
.176
 
ISO
.318
 
AVG
.227
 
OBP
.280
 
SLG
.545
 
OPS
.825
 
wOBA
.331
 
Exit Velocity
76.6 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
21.0%
 
Barrels/PA
4.5%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Last season was a big disappointment for Bader. Is all hope lost? No, though a K-rate pushing 30% will be tough to overcome. On account of all that swing and miss, Bader saw his BA dip close to 60 points. He did his damage against fastballs, hitting just .141 against breaking pitches and .178 against offspeed pitches. There were a few positives, however. Bader lifted his walk rate from 7.3% to 11.3% while trimming his chase rate and improving his zone-contact rate. He shaved five percentage points off his infield-flyball rate. Bader's biggest contributions to the Cardinals came in the outfield, where he graded out as one of the five best defenders in the game by Outs Above Average. He also stole double-digit bases for the fifth time in as many pro seasons. A starting role is not guaranteed, but the hype is gone, which means the opportunity cost should be minimal for those who want to roll the dice a bit.
Defense is his calling card, but Bader's no slouch with the bat. When accounting for park effects and the current run environment, Bader graded out as 6% better than league average at the plate (106 wRC+) as a rookie. He did benefit from some good fortune on balls in play (.358 BABIP), but it wasn't all luck. He used his above-average speed to beat out groundballs at the highest rate among players with 400 plate appearances; a whopping 17.8% of Bader's groundballs resulted in infield hits. He showed good instincts on the basepaths, successfully converting 15 of 18 stolen-base attempts. His modest .251/.317/.378 line against same-handed pitching suggests he could be overexposed in an everyday role, but his stellar defense will give him a long leash. With stolen-base totals at their lowest levels in decades, Bader has quite a bit of appeal, as he has the speed to reach 20 bases while also contributing double-digit homers.
Gone are the days where the Cardinals were satisfied with players like Jedd Gyorko, Kolten Wong, Randal Grichuk and the like occupying prominent spots in the lineup, and that's bad news for Bader. He fit the prototype of the Mike Matheny-era Cardinals -- a player who maximizes his natural ability but lacks the impact tools to be a game changer at the plate or in the field. With the starting outfield set for 2018 with three everyday players, Bader will be competing for a bench role this spring. He has always mashed lefties, which is a strength that Matheny would undoubtedly make use of if Bader is on the bench. Unfortunately, he is subpar against righties and has to sell out to access his average raw power, which means he will always be a bit of a batting average risk without enough power to make it worthwhile. He is capable of playing all three outfield spots and is an above-average runner. Essentially, he is a prototypical fourth outfielder.
The dominant narrative with Bader seems to be his dramatic decline in production after being promoted from the Texas League (143 wRC+) to the Pacific Coast League (74 wRC+). However, his splits against right-handed pitching should be what really troubles his dynasty league owners. He rode a 1.375 OPS against lefties at Low-A to prominence last offseason, and boosted his mark against southpaws even further to 1.485 OPS at Double-A in 2016. All the while, Bader was a middling hitter against righties, putting up splits of .270/.337/.399 and .249/.319/.377 at Low-A and Double-A, respectively. His solid defense in center field, above-average speed and ability to crush left-handed pitching will undoubtedly get him to the big leagues at some point in the next year or two, but it seems likely that he will be limited to a part-time role. Look to deal him before this reality becomes common knowledge.
The 100th overall pick in the 2015 draft started his professional career as well as any player in his class. Bader, a late bloomer with the stick out of the University of Florida, received a promotion to Low-A Peoria after posting a 1.055 OPS in seven games with short-season State College. He clearly needed more of a challenge, and he handled that challenge, posting a .301/.364/.505 slash line with nine home runs and 15 steals in 228 plate appearances. Despite being slightly younger than the average player at that level, Bader’s .869 OPS would have been tied for the second best mark in the Midwest League if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. His 49:15 K:BB in 61 games suggests he has the approach to continue his success in an assignment to High-A Palm Beach as a 21-year-old, and if he continues to rake, the 6-foot center fielder could find himself at Double-A shortly after he turns 22 on June 3.
More Fantasy News
Blasts three-run homer in win
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
May 2, 2021
Bader went 1-for-3 with a three-run home run and a walk in Sunday's 3-0 win over the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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Contributes to big win
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
May 2, 2021
Bader went 0-for-4 with an RBI groundout, a walk and a stolen base in a win over the Pirates on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Singles in season debut
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
May 1, 2021
Bader (forearm) went 1-for-4 in his season debut against the Pirates on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Activated from injured list
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
April 29, 2021
Bader (forearm) was activated from the 10-day injured list Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Projected for return in early May
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Forearm
April 25, 2021
Bader (forearm) is at full speed and could rejoin the team in the next 7-to-10 days if his progress continues as planned, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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