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Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2025 Stats
W-L
3-9
ERA
4.88
WHIP
1.33
K
129
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
SV
Unlock Our Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Cease had an up-and-down career through five years with the White Sox, but he delivered on his potential in 2024 after being traded to the Padres and posted a 3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 224:65 K:BB over a career-high 189.1 innings. The right-hander had a career-best 8.5 percent walk rate, while a 29.4 percent strikeout rate ranked fifth best among qualified starting pitchers. He's entering his age-30 campaign and should be San Diego's ace in his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2025. Cease seems unlikely to recreate the 2.20 ERA from 2021 that resulted in a second-place finish in Cy Young voting since he significantly outperformed his peripherals that year, but he should continue to be a high-value fantasy starter in 2025 given his strikeout floor. Read Past Outlooks
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RANKS
Rest of Season
#Subscriber-Only
Overall Rank
#Subscriber-Only
Dynasty
From Preseason
#49
ADP
League Majors
Bats R
Throws R
40 Man Yes
Height 6'2"
Weight 200
DOB 12/28/1995
Born Milton, GA
College None
Drafted 6th Rd 2014 CHC
Signed a one-year, $13.75 million contract with the Padres in January of 2025.
Struggles with long ball again
PSan Diego Padres
July 9, 2025
Cease (3-9) allowed six runs on five hits and three walks while striking out eight batters over six innings in a loss against Arizona on Wednesday.
Analysis
Cease continues to flash impressive stuff with poor results -- he racked up 16 whiffs and eight strikeouts but allowed three long balls and six runs. The right-hander has now given up multiple home runs in three consecutive starts, yielding 14 runs (13 earned) across 16 innings during that stretch. Cease is tied for sixth in the league with 129 punchouts on the season, but he's also posted a poor 4.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
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2021
2020
2019
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
95
Last 10 Games
98
Last 5 Games
100
How many pitches does Dylan Cease generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Dylan Cease generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2025
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .240 991 248 85 213 47 7 32
Since 2023vs Right .220 1000 319 98 194 44 3 20
2025vs Left .237 221 60 22 46 11 0 8
2025vs Right .256 224 69 17 52 14 0 7
2024vs Left .212 373 97 33 71 20 0 11
2024vs Right .189 389 127 32 66 14 1 7
2023vs Left .268 397 91 30 96 16 7 13
2023vs Right .230 387 123 49 76 16 2 6
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2025
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-16%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.61 1.24 232.0 12 17 0 10.6 3.6 0.9
Since 2023Away 4.77 1.27 237.2 12 12 0 11.2 3.4 1.1
2025Home 3.48 1.26 51.2 3 3 0 11.3 3.7 1.4
2025Away 6.27 1.39 51.2 0 6 0 11.1 3.1 1.2
2024Home 3.03 1.01 86.0 6 7 0 10.8 2.4 0.8
2024Away 3.83 1.11 103.1 8 4 0 10.5 3.7 0.9
2023Home 4.20 1.44 94.1 3 7 0 9.9 4.6 0.8
2023Away 5.01 1.39 82.2 4 2 0 12.0 3.4 1.2
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dylan Cease compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.31
 
K/9
11.2
 
BB/9
3.4
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
97.0 mph
 
ERA
4.88
 
WHIP
1.33
 
BABIP
.338
 
GB/FB
0.92
 
Left On Base
67.2%
 
Exit Velocity
83.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.1%
 
Spin Rate
2613 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.7%
 
Swinging Strike
16.4%
 
Prospect Rankings History
View Complete Dylan Cease Prospect Ranking History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Padres Depth Chart
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dylan Cease See More
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dylan Cease See More
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Cease finished second in voting for the AL Cy Young in 2022 after he posted a 2.20 ERA in 32 starts, but he stumbled to a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 214:79 K:BB over 177 innings last season. Some regression wasn't surprising since the elite campaign had some underwhelming peripherals, but much like the White Sox in general, his fall in 2023 was steeper than anticipated. The underlying numbers flipped in the opposite direction, with a 3.72 FIP indicating he had some poor luck. Cease's strikeout rate dropped over three points to 27.3 percent, though he improved his walk rate slightly to 10.1 percent. A .330 BABIP and 41.5 percent hard-hit rate were both career worsts, the former of which was certainly affected by Chicago's horrid defense (minus-59 DRS). His true self likely falls somewhere in between the results of the past two seasons, making him somewhat of a volatile option for fantasy managers in 2024, though his strikeout floor is strong. Cease has also been regularly mentioned in trade rumors over the past year, and a move elsewhere would likely only improve his immediate outlook.
Cease followed up 2021's breakthrough campaign with an even better season, finishing a distant second to Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young voting. Cease started 32 games for the second straight season, finishing with a career-high 184 innings. It wasn't by much, but Cease's K% ticked down while his BB% inched up. A .260 BABIP and 82.3% LOB mark resulted in a 2.20 ERA, over a run below the associated 3.50 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA. Cease is being drafted ahead of starters with similar or better skills, but with a longer track record. If he can lower his 10% walk rate, Cease could be one of the best pitchers in the league. There is a pathway as Cease uses his fastball 47% of the time but throws it for a strike at a low 62% rate. Cease is a prime example of how pitchers can be both lucky and good. Dreaming of a lower walk rate is tempting, but the regression monster is looming with nightmare intentions.
Cease truthers were rewarded with the breakthrough season, but let's pump the fantasy ace brakes just a tad. The righthander made 32 starts and his 3.96 ERA was pegged a little lower by the estimators. The long-expected spike in strikeouts manifested, keyed by a slider with a 22.4% swinging strike rate. The yellow flags are a high walk rate and a flyball lean. The latter isn't necessarily an issue, but it can be when combined with excess free passes and a homer-friendly home venue. To be fair, Cease's BB% dropped to 9.6%, but that was still the second highest among qualified starters, resulting in averaging just 5.2 innings per start, the lowest among qualified starters. Youth is Cease's ally as he's entering his age-26 season. He may improve his control even more but paying for it is a risk. The upside is indeed elite, but there's also a chance Cease is a ratio buzzkill.
The unique circumstances surrounding the 2020 campaign weren't conducive for young arms to exhibit growth. Still, Cease's season was a big disappointment. His skills fell back across the board; he fanned fewer and walked more while allowing harder contact. Cease's 4.01 ERA was spared further harm by a .238 BABIP and 81.7 LOB%, both touched by Lady Luck, with a 5.87 xFIP and 5.86 SIERA more indicative of his true skill level. Command and control are Cease's primary issues. His pitch mix remained close to 2019, but he traded a few curves for sliders, his most effective offering. Last year, the right-hander threw his fastball for a strike just 61% of the time. Until he can locate his four-seamer better, he's just a guy with velocity. Entering his age-25 season, Cease is still young enough to prove he's more. However, other than youth and the reading on the radar gun, there's little reason for optimism.
There's hope that Cease's command will come along, but right now, it's lacking. STATS LLC's new Command+ metric, which attempts to judge a pitcher's intent on each throw, had Cease's command at 88 in his debut season (100 is average). His Zone% was 39.4, per FanGraphs, and Cease battled walk (10.7%) and home run (1.85 HR/9) issues during his time in the majors. The free passes were nothing new, as Cease hasn't had a BB rate below 10% at any stop. The good news is that his raw stuff is excellent. With a fastball that averages north of 96 mph, a plus breaking ball and a potential plus changeup, Cease is able to miss bats at a well-above-average clip (24.9 K%, 11.0 SwStr%). There's upside here if he ever figures out how to put the ball where he wants it. In the meantime, Cease should be viewed as a streamer, one with more favorable matchups than most given the weakness of his division.
Blessed with special arm speed, Cease has had a high-leverage reliever floor (with reasonable health) since entering pro ball, but in 2018 he made massive strides to show that his future may be atop a rotation. He tallied over 100 innings (124) for the first time, notched a career-best 3.6 BB/9 and improved his secondary pitches. His mid-90s fastball touches 98 mph and was more of a worm killer last year (1.14 GO/AO) than in 2017 (0.88 GO/AO). Cease's curveball is his second-best pitch -- a potentially plus offering -- and his changeup emerged as a viable third pitch, thanks largely to the strength of his fastball. His command may never be better than fringe average, but with his stuff, it doesn't need to be. The most impressive aspect of Cease's season was that he improved after his promotion to Double-A, posting career bests in FIP (1.72), WHIP (0.99) and K-BB% (27.7). He should open at Triple-A and could make his big-league debut this summer.
Cease is entering his age-22 season, has never pitched above Low-A and has never logged more than 93.1 innings in a season. Yet, his stuff is some of the filthiest in the minors. The 6-foot-2 righty sits in the mid-90s and can touch triple digits with his fastball. He also throws a curveball that can look like a monster putaway pitch when it's on. His changeup is a distant third pitch, but that's hardly the biggest knock on his chances of making it as a starter. He has been coddled ever since the Cubs drafted him in the sixth round in 2014. Cease was the secondary piece the White Sox received when they sent Jose Quintana across town, and he had to be shut down at the end of the season with shoulder fatigue. While he made significant strides with his command and control last season, that area of his game is still a weakness. His fragility and command issues point to a future as an impactful late-inning arm, but even that outcome requires patience.
The minor leagues are lighter on high probability impact talent than they have been in recent years, so this may be a good time to gamble on a player with extreme upside and extreme risk. Cease fits the bill. He has the potential for two monster pitches, yet his fringe-average changeup, below-average control and significant durability concerns should scare off most risk-averse owners. Prospect aficionados are aware of his fastball that sits in the upper-90s and can touch 101 mph with some armside run. He also features a potentially plus curveball that can be devastating when hitters sit on his heater. However, his to-do list for 2017 is long and arduous. Atop that list is improving his command and control after walking 13.7 percent of short-season batters. Cease, who underwent Tommy John surgery after the Cubs drafted him in the fourth round of the 2014 draft, also needs to build up his workload and show more feel for his changeup. His potential outcomes range from frontline starter to high-leverage reliever. This is a very exciting young arm.
A sixth-round pick in 2014, Cease made his pro debut last year for the rookie-level Cubs after missing 2014 following Tommy John surgery. With 25 strikeouts and a .145 BAA in 24 innings, he holds some promise. However, he walked 16 and hit two more, so he has a long way to go. He's still just 20 though, so he has time and the Cubs will be patient with him. Cease has a very high ceiling (he can touch 100 mph), but he's a risk given his prior elbow problems and control issues. However, that frontline upside makes him someone worth gambling on in dynasty leagues that roster 200 prospects. He may not make it to a full-season league in 2016, but the training wheels should come off in 2017, at which point he could start cruising up the organizational ladder.
More Fantasy News
Hit hard by Philly
PSan Diego Padres
July 3, 2025
Cease (3-8) took the loss in the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Phillies, giving up four runs on eight hits over six innings. He struck out four without walking a batter.
Analysis
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Uneven performance in Cincinnati
PSan Diego Padres
June 27, 2025
Cease (3-7) took the loss Friday against the Reds, giving up four runs (three earned) on five hits and three walks in four innings. He struck out eight.
Analysis
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Picks up third win
PSan Diego Padres
June 21, 2025
Cease (3-6) allowed one run on three hits and three walks while striking out four over 6.2 innings to earn the win over the Royals on Saturday.
Analysis
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Done in by fourth frame
PSan Diego Padres
June 17, 2025
Cease (2-6) took the loss against the Dodgers on Monday, allowing six runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out nine batters over five innings.
Analysis
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Works around wildness for win
PSan Diego Padres
June 10, 2025
Cease (2-5) allowed three hits and five walks while striking out 11 over seven scoreless innings to earn the win over the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Landing spot in Philly?
PSan Diego Padres
March 19, 2025
Per Pat Ragazzo of SI.com, the Padres have been scouting the Phillies given the ongoing trade interest in Cease, and the Ranger Suarez's back injury could prompt Philadelphia to consider adding rotation help.
Analysis
Cease doesn't seem likely to be traded at this point, but injuries late in camp could change the situation. The right-hander will make $13.75 million this season in his final year of arbitration eligibility, so the Padres would be motivated to deal him this summer if the club is falling short of expectations.
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