Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
31-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Mets
2021 Fantasy Outlook
To this point, the Mets haven't been able to figure out what to do with Lugo. After breaking him in as a swingman, they tried him as the closer down the stretch in 2019 and Lugo thrived, but then they talked about potentially stretching him back out as a starter. Lugo was in the bullpen when the 2020 season finally got underway and he racked up three saves in his first seven appearances, but then New York did indeed move him to a starting role, which proved to be a bad move as Lugo struggled to a 6.15 ERA as a starter (2.61 ERA as a reliever). His fastball velocity was only around 92-93 mph on average in September, down a couple ticks from where he was as a reliever in 2019. Lugo's overall K-BB% was still a stellar 23.1%. Hopefully this new regime puts Lugo in the bullpen and leaves him be. He's a lot better than he showed in 2020 and we know he can be a late-inning weapon, ultra-effective in short spurts. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#527
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.93 million contract with the Mets in January of 2021.
Snags second win
PNew York Mets
July 6, 2021
Lugo (2-1) picked up the win in Monday's 4-2 victory over the Brewers after striking out two in a perfect seventh inning.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander fired nine of his 11 pitches for strikes while carving up Milwaukee's 5-6-7 hitters, and Lugo was rewarded for his efforts when New York took the lead in the bottom of the frame. He's been his usual stalwart self since recovering from offseason elbow surgery, as Lugo has five holds and a save in 15 appearances with a 2.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 21:6 K:BB through 15 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
17
Last 10 Games
18
Last 5 Games
21
How many pitches does Seth Lugo generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Seth Lugo generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .205 242 72 20 45 7 1 10
Since 2019vs Right .223 311 104 14 65 11 1 9
2021vs Left .265 42 10 8 9 2 0 2
2021vs Right .213 49 16 2 10 1 0 1
2020vs Left .246 71 21 4 16 1 0 4
2020vs Right .260 77 25 4 19 4 1 4
2019vs Left .167 129 41 8 20 4 1 4
2019vs Right .211 185 63 8 36 6 0 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-71%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-66%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-85%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-60%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 1.64 0.73 71.1 10 2 6 12.4 1.9 1.1
Since 2019Away 5.70 1.49 66.1 3 7 4 10.7 2.8 1.4
2021Home 2.31 0.94 11.2 3 0 1 11.6 3.9 1.5
2021Away 6.75 1.93 9.1 0 1 0 10.6 4.8 1.0
2020Home 1.40 0.72 19.1 3 0 1 12.1 1.9 1.4
2020Away 9.35 2.08 17.1 0 4 2 10.9 3.1 2.6
2019Home 1.56 0.67 40.1 4 2 4 12.7 1.3 0.9
2019Away 3.86 1.13 39.2 3 2 2 10.7 2.3 0.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.60
 
K/9
11.1
 
BB/9
4.3
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
93.7 mph
 
ERA
4.29
 
WHIP
1.38
 
BABIP
.325
 
GB/FB
2.08
 
Left On Base
76.6%
 
Exit Velocity
82.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.4%
 
Spin Rate
2531 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.3%
 
Swinging Strike
12.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Seth Lugo
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
Lugo had his best season yet in his fourth year in the majors, his first one spent entirely in the bullpen. While his 2.70 ERA was marginally behind his numbers in 2016 and 2018, his 2.70 FIP and 3.24 xFIP were each career bests. His 5.1% walk rate was likewise a career low, while his excellent 33.1% strikeout rate smashed his previous career high of 25.1%. With Edwin Diaz falling far short of expectations, Lugo even picked up six saves. The Mets want Diaz to be the closer they expected when they traded for him prior to the 2019 season, and there is talk that Lugo might be stretched out as a starter this spring. If Diaz struggles for the second straight year, newly-signed Dellin Betances looks like the most likely beneficiary. Lugo can still offer value in rotisserie leagues due to his heavy workload (80 innings) and high strikeout rate, just don't expect him to top last year's saves total.
Lugo was versatile for the Mets last season, serving as a starter, closer and middle reliever at different times throughout the campaign. His 2019 plan looks similar; he’s been told by the new regime in New York to prepare for any job, though closing is probably off the table after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle. Lugo’s fastball played up in relief and gave him closer-like peripherals, but he can also spread the wealth with five solid-to-awesome offerings as a starter, including a Statcast-melting curveball. Chances are, he will spend most of the year in a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, once again pitching roughly 100 innings. This is the wave of the future, and these highly-skilled non-closers, previously afterthoughts in traditional mixed leagues, are growing more appealing with fewer workhorse starters in the game. Consider tucking Lugo away in the late rounds.
Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart.
Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.
More Fantasy News
Takes first loss Thursday
PNew York Mets
July 1, 2021
Lugo (1-1) gave up one earned run on two hits and two walks while striking out one across two-thirds of an inning, taking the loss to Atlanta on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Earns first win
PNew York Mets
June 25, 2021
Lugo (1-0) gave up no hits and a walk while striking out three in a scoreless eighth inning to earn the win over the Phillies in the first game of Friday's doubleheader.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up first save
PNew York Mets
June 15, 2021
Lugo earned the save Tuesday after tossing two scoreless innings. He allowed two hits and a walk while striking out three.
ANALYSIS
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Activated from IL
PNew York Mets
May 31, 2021
The Mets reinstated Lugo (elbow) from the 60-day injured list ahead of Monday's game against the Diamondbacks.
ANALYSIS
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Returning Monday
PNew York Mets
Elbow
May 29, 2021
Lugo (elbow) will be reinstated from the 60-day injured list Monday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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