Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
29-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Mets
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Lugo was versatile for the Mets last season, serving as a starter, closer and middle reliever at different times throughout the campaign. His 2019 plan looks similar; he’s been told by the new regime in New York to prepare for any job, though closing is probably off the table after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle. Lugo’s fastball played up in relief and gave him closer-like peripherals, but he can also spread the wealth with five solid-to-awesome offerings as a starter, including a Statcast-melting curveball. Chances are, he will spend most of the year in a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, once again pitching roughly 100 innings. This is the wave of the future, and these highly-skilled non-closers, previously afterthoughts in traditional mixed leagues, are growing more appealing with fewer workhorse starters in the game. Consider tucking Lugo away in the late rounds. Read Past Outlooks
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Notches third hold
PNew York Mets
April 16, 2019
Lugo walked one and struck out two over two scoreless innings of relief to record his third hold of the season in Monday's win over the Phillies.
After a couple of rough outings at the beginning of April when he was battling an illness, Lugo has regained his footing, posting a 1.29 ERA, 0.57 WHIP and 8:1 K:BB over his last seven innings. The Mets are committed to using closer Edwin Diaz only in ninth-inning save situations, which leaves more work available for multi-inning setup arms like Lugo, increasing the right-hander's fantasy appeal and strikeout upside.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .240 456 100 34 99 21 2 9
Since 2017vs Right .260 461 107 23 111 16 1 15
2019vs Left .167 26 9 2 4 2 0 0
2019vs Right .275 45 10 2 11 2 0 2
2018vs Left .184 197 49 17 32 7 0 4
2018vs Right .245 213 54 11 49 4 1 5
2017vs Left .293 233 42 15 63 12 2 5
2017vs Right .273 203 43 10 51 10 0 8
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
Since 2017Home 2.03 0.89 97.1 4 2 2 8.8 1.8 0.8
Since 2017Away 5.13 1.49 121.0 7 7 1 8.3 2.8 1.1
2019Home 4.26 0.63 6.1 0 0 0 9.9 0.0 1.4
2019Away 4.82 1.61 9.1 1 0 0 11.6 3.9 1.0
2018Home 1.52 0.88 53.1 1 1 2 9.6 1.9 0.7
2018Away 3.94 1.29 48.0 2 3 1 8.6 3.2 0.9
2017Home 2.39 0.96 37.2 3 1 0 7.4 1.9 1.0
2017Away 6.08 1.62 63.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.4 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
93.6 mph
Strand %
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Seth Lugo
The Z Files: A Daily Moves League Case Study
29 days ago
Todd Zola gives a glimpse at how to take advantage of your league's rule set by explaining why he built a pitching staff around dominant middle relievers such as Chad Green.
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35 days ago
Max Scherzer has climbed up to third in RotoWire's composite rankings. Check out all of our changes in this week's Roundtable Rankings.
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42 days ago
Vladimir Guerrero's oblique injury could further delay his arrival to Toronto. How much does he fall in the latest installment of the RotoWire Roundtable?
Baseball Draft Kit: Building a Winning Pitching Staff
45 days ago
David Regan breaks down his methods for building a winning staff in his article for the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.
Tout Wars Draft and Hold Recap
45 days ago
James Anderson breaks down his strategy and final roster in his Tout Wars debut.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart.
Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.
More Fantasy News
Illness contributing to struggles
PNew York Mets
April 4, 2019
Lugo allowed two runs on two hits while recording just one out in Thursday's loss to the Nationals.
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Impresses in seventh
PNew York Mets
March 29, 2019
Lugo picked up his first hold of the season in Thursday's win over the Nationals, striking out the side in a perfect seventh inning.
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Looking good in bullpen role
PNew York Mets
March 14, 2019
Lugo struck out three over two perfect innings of relief in Wednesday's Grapefruit League game against the Astros.
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Not competing for rotation spot
PNew York Mets
February 13, 2019
Lugo will not be competing to start the season in the rotation, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
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Considered a rotation option
PNew York Mets
February 4, 2019
Lugo will be an option for the Mets' rotation in 2019, Matt Ehalt of The Bergen Record reports.
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