Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
28-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Mets
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart. Read Past Outlooks
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Nabs second save
PNew York Mets
September 9, 2018
Lugo gave up a run on one hit while striking five over two innings as he picked up the save Sunday against the Phillies.
ANALYSIS
Lugo gave up a solo home run in the ninth inning, but he managed to slam the door for his second save of the 2018 season. New York's closer situation is currently a bit messy, but Robert Gsellman and Anthony Swarzak figure to get the first crack in save situations during the final month of the season. Lugo owns a 2.75 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 94 strikeouts through 95 innings this year.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-26%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .235 544 107 47 114 21 4 13
Since 2016vs Right .254 551 123 26 128 21 1 16
2018vs Left .183 192 47 17 31 7 0 4
2018vs Right .246 207 53 10 48 4 1 5
2017vs Left .293 233 42 15 63 12 2 5
2017vs Right .273 203 43 10 51 10 0 8
2016vs Left .196 119 18 15 20 2 2 4
2016vs Right .240 141 27 6 29 7 0 3
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-55%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-63%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-61%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-2%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 2.12 0.95 123.1 6 3 1 8.1 2.2 0.9
Since 2016Away 4.69 1.41 139.0 9 8 1 7.7 2.8 1.0
2018Home 1.55 0.90 52.1 1 1 1 9.6 1.9 0.7
2018Away 4.14 1.29 45.2 2 3 1 8.7 3.2 1.0
2017Home 2.39 0.96 37.2 3 1 0 7.4 1.9 1.0
2017Away 6.08 1.62 63.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.4 1.3
2016Home 2.70 1.02 33.1 2 1 0 6.5 3.0 1.4
2016Away 2.64 1.17 30.2 3 1 0 6.2 2.9 0.6
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Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.64
 
K/9
9.1
 
BB/9
2.5
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
93.9 mph
 
ERA
2.69
 
WHIP
1.09
 
BABIP
.285
 
GB/FB
1.55
 
Strand %
79.0%
 
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Defensive Stats
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2017 Fantasy Outlook
Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.
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Earns first career save
PNew York Mets
August 13, 2018
Lugo worked around a pair of hits in a scoreless inning of work to earn his first save of the season Sunday against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Not in mix for spot start Monday
PNew York Mets
July 4, 2018
Mets manager Mickey Callaway said Lugo is not under consideration for a spot start for Monday's doubleheader against the Phillies, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. "I would like to keep Lugo in the bullpen," Callaway said. "We saw the benefits of that [Sunday against the Marlins]," referring to when Lugo tossed 1.2 scoreless innings in his return to a relief role.
ANALYSIS
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Shifts to bullpen
PNew York Mets
June 29, 2018
Lugo was moved to the bullpen prior to Friday's game against Miami, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Takes tough-luck loss versus Pirates
PNew York Mets
June 26, 2018
Lugo (2-3) allowed three runs (one earned) on four hits and three walks across five innings to take the loss Monday against the Pirates. He struck out four.
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Lasts three innings in no-decision
PNew York Mets
June 21, 2018
Lugo allowed six runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks with five strikeouts over three innings in a no-decision Wednesday against the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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