Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
29-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Mets
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Lugo was versatile for the Mets last season, serving as a starter, closer and middle reliever at different times throughout the campaign. His 2019 plan looks similar; he’s been told by the new regime in New York to prepare for any job, though closing is probably off the table after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle. Lugo’s fastball played up in relief and gave him closer-like peripherals, but he can also spread the wealth with five solid-to-awesome offerings as a starter, including a Statcast-melting curveball. Chances are, he will spend most of the year in a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, once again pitching roughly 100 innings. This is the wave of the future, and these highly-skilled non-closers, previously afterthoughts in traditional mixed leagues, are growing more appealing with fewer workhorse starters in the game. Consider tucking Lugo away in the late rounds. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#590
ADP
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Nabs third save
PNew York Mets
August 17, 2019
Lugo struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Saturday to record his third save of the season in a 4-1 win over the Royals.
ANALYSIS
After coughing up six runs over 2.1 innings in his prior two appearances, Lugo bounced back in strong fashion. All three of his saves have come since July 26, but Edwin Diaz also has three saves in that time despite his own struggles, and the Mets' closing picture remains somewhat fuzzy.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .240 520 114 39 113 23 3 12
Since 2017vs Right .242 564 150 28 127 18 1 17
2019vs Left .220 90 23 7 18 4 1 3
2019vs Right .197 148 53 7 27 4 0 4
2018vs Left .184 197 49 17 32 7 0 4
2018vs Right .245 213 54 11 49 4 1 5
2017vs Left .293 233 42 15 63 12 2 5
2017vs Right .273 203 43 10 51 10 0 8
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-63%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-58%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-61%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-61%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 1.89 0.87 119.0 7 3 4 9.5 1.7 0.9
Since 2017Away 5.05 1.43 142.2 8 9 2 8.7 2.8 1.1
2019Home 1.93 0.71 28.0 3 1 2 12.2 1.3 1.3
2019Away 4.65 1.26 31.0 2 2 1 11.0 2.9 0.9
2018Home 1.52 0.88 53.1 1 1 2 9.6 1.9 0.7
2018Away 3.94 1.29 48.0 2 3 1 8.6 3.2 0.9
2017Home 2.39 0.96 37.2 3 1 0 7.4 1.9 1.0
2017Away 6.08 1.62 63.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.4 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 20 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.43
 
K/9
11.6
 
BB/9
2.1
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
94.2 mph
 
ERA
3.36
 
WHIP
1.00
 
BABIP
.296
 
GB/FB
1.20
 
Left On Base
67.1%
 
Exit Velocity
89.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.9%
 
Spin Rate
2476 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
34.7%
 
Swinging Strike
11.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Seth Lugo
Mound Musings: Checking in on the Bullpens – American League
6 days ago
Brad Johnson examines bullpen assignments in the AL to see how they stack up for a postseason push, including in Detroit, where the jury is still out regarding Joe Jimenez’ potential for long-term success.
Mound Musings: Checking in on the Bullpens – National League
13 days ago
Brad Johnson dives into all of the changes that have been made in NL bullpens, including in Arizona where Archie Bradley takes on the closer role for now.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
17 days ago
Jan Levine discusses the NL fantasy shakeup following the trade deadline, with a look at players moving locations and others taking advantage of new opportunities.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
24 days ago
If Ian Happ can continue his impressive Triple-A numbers with the Cubs, Jan Levine figures he'll also be a solid addition to your team.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
45 days ago
In the latest weekly free-agent roundup, Jan Levine reminds you not to forget about A.J. Pollock's imminent return to the Dodgers' lineup.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart.
Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.
More Fantasy News
Roughed up in seventh inning
PNew York Mets
August 15, 2019
Lugo (3-5) was the pitcher of record in Wednesday's 6-4 loss to the Braves after retiring only one of the seven batters he faced and allowing five runs on five hits and a walk.
ANALYSIS
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To get more save chances
PNew York Mets
August 12, 2019
Lugo will remain in a high-leverage rather than a strict ninth-inning role, but Mets manager Mickey Callaway suggested Sunday that the right-hander would see regular save chances going forward, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up second save
PNew York Mets
August 5, 2019
Lugo struck out two in two perfect innings to record his second save in a 5-4 win over the Marlins during the second game of Monday's doubleheader.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up first save
PNew York Mets
July 27, 2019
Lugo struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Friday to record his first save of the season in a win over the Pirates.
ANALYSIS
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Notches fourth win
PNew York Mets
July 3, 2019
Lugo (4-2) picked up the win in Tuesday's victory over the Yankees, walking one batter in a scoreless eighth inning.
ANALYSIS
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