12 games are on the docket for Friday's main slate at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. EDT. Seven of our listed 24 pitchers (29.1 percent) fall into the pay-up tier, led by the always targetable, but often not included on main slates, Paul Skenes ($10,700).
Skenes is throwing in Boston, where wind appears to be blowing out, and there's a solid chance of rain, which will make him a risky option, but one that may be underutilized if they play. There's some slight rain chances in Denver, while wind appears to be blowing in in New York and out in San Francisco. The Yankees (-225) and Cubs (-220) are the slate's biggest favorites. Our highest run totals come in Cubs - Rockies (11.0) and Rangers - Athletics (10.5) while three games have a slate low 7.5 run expectancy.
Pitching
Robbie Ray, SF vs. BAL ($9,700): Based strictly on opponent name recognition, I'd think George Kirby ($10,200) and Carlos Rodon ($9,500) are the popular and obvious plays, especially for cash builds, thus making all other pay-up options better-suited for GPPs with lower roster percentages. The winds scare me here, but the run total doesn't imply they will factor. Baltimore is left-handed heavy in their lineup, and Ray allows a .243 wOBA and .508 OPS to them at home. Baltimore at a 24.4 percent rate against lefties, posting an 83 wRC+.
Jonah Tong, NYM at MIA ($8,800): It's a hefty price to pay for a rookie making his debut, but Tong's minor league strikeout rate (14.1 per nine) gives him a darn high ceiling, and outside of countering Ray with Dean Kremer ($8,900), I can't back the arms in the 8k tier strongly due to difficult matchups. The Marlins have been a serviceable offense against righties with a 103 wRC+ and minimum 20.3 percent K rate. But it's still a soft landing spot for Tong's debut, where there should be a quality floor and elite potential.
Nestor Cortes, SD at MIN ($7,300): Cortes is coming off his second quality start of the season, allowing just one hit against the Dodgers across six innings. It's a terrific price point that allows you to build a deep offense. Minnesota has a 93 wRC+ and 23.1 percent K rate against lefties. We only need 29.2 FanDuel points to reach a 4x return, a number Cortes has reached three times in five starts. Boston's Payton Tolle ($5,500) is certainly in play against Pittsburgh if you're willing to roll the dice.
Top Targets
The Cubs offense hasn't been great for a month-plus, but it's kept the Coors Field price effect somewhat in check. Kyle Tucker ($4,300) is finding some form with a six-game hitting streak (nine hits, three homers) and is 3-for-7 of Rockies starter German Marquez. Dansby Swanson ($3,400) is a cheaper entry to the Cubs lineup and a BvP play, going 6-for-10 with a homer.
Yankee bats will surely be popular, but we don't necessarily have to pay for Aaron Judge ($4,600) as many others have positive splits and are in great form. Jazz Chisholm ($3,700) has a .384 wOBA, 149 wRC+ and .315 ISO off righties and has homered four times in six. Giancarlo Stanton ($3,700) sits a .435/184/.362 and has homered five times in his last eight. And Trent Grisham ($3,100) sits at .391/153/.261 and has four homers in his last five.
If you have interest in Athletics-Rangers, I'd just take the top options and move on. Nick Kurtz ($4,200) has homered in two at bats against Jack Leiter, while Wyatt Langford ($3,500) has nine hits and and eight runs scored in his last six.
Bargain Bats
Ramon Laureano ($3,000) has a .414 wOBA, 173 wRC+ and .273 ISO off righties since joining the Padres, having homered in two of his last three while hitting safely in seven of nine ahead of a soft matchup against Minnesota's Zebby Matthews, who allows 1.5 HR/9.
Seth Lugo has allowed two homers in each of his last four starts, and eight different Tigers have taken him deep, making for some interesting power chasing. Zach McKinstry ($2,900) is 4-for-14 (.286) with a homer and triple off him, offers four-position flexibility, and has seven hits and a homer across his last six.
Mike Yastrzemski ($2,900) has quietly hit safely in 10 of his last 12 atop the Royals lineup, and is 7-for-21 (.333) with two homers off Tigers starter Chris Paddack.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Tyler Anderson (Angels): Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Jose Altuve ($3,200), Christian Walker ($3,000)
This isn't the most traditional stack other than it's the top-of-the-order for the Astros, as it's largely built around hitting long balls and BvP success rather than each option feeding off each other. But Anderson is allowing 1.9 HR/9 and has a massive 50.5 percent fly ball rate. Alvarez has just one hit since his return from IL, but it left the yard, and he is 8-for-21 (.381) with three homers and a 1.411 OPS against the Angels starter. Walker is in a power groove, launching five homers in his last eight games, and has homered once against Anderson, going 7-for-30 (.233) overall; not elite, but the form helps negate that. Altuve has been a bit feast or famine, but has six hits and a homer over his last give, and is 9-for-28 (.321) with a homer against the Angels starter.
Dodgers vs. Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks): Freddie Freeman ($3,500), Will Smith ($3,400), Mookie Betts ($3,300)
The Dodgers have a 5.8 run expectancy, trailing just the Cubs and Yankees on the slate, and we can get the heart of their order at a fair cost. The trio is a collective 21-for-74 (.284) with three homers, four doubles and 13 RBI off Gallen. It's not an elite ceiling, but a stable one that can help round out lineups with darts at the slate's higher upside plays.
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