Seth Lugo

34-Year-Old PitcherSP

Kansas City Royals

2024 Stats

W-L

12-4

ERA

2.38

WHIP

1.04

122

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Lugo, long a multi-inning reliever, was a full-time starter in 2023 for the first time with mixed results. He finished the season with solid ratios, but a decline in strikeouts and wins in just 8 of his 33 starts limited his overall fantasy value. Lugo has long been known for his high spin rate pitches, but his two primary offerings did not perform the same as a starter as they did when he came in from the pen. The league hit .171 off his fastball and .159 off his curveball in 2022, but those numbers jumped to .247 and .280 last year when he worked as a starter despite both pitches maintaining their high spin rates. Lugo's velocity dipped a bit working in the rotation as well. He opted out of the final year of his deal to become a free agent and cashed in with a three-year, $45 million deal in Kansas City. The workload increase of nearly 100 innings from 2021 to last year is a concern, but Lugo's contract should assure him a rotation spot with the Royals while he remains healthy. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Projection

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#268

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 225

DOB 11/17/1989

Born Shreveport, LA

College Centenary

Drafted 34th Rd 2011 NYM

Spins first career complete game

PKansas City Royals

July 21, 2024

Lugo (12-4) picked up the win Sunday against the White Sox, pitching a complete game and allowing one run on three hits while striking out six.

ANALYSIS
Lugo set another career mark in his breakout season of 2024. In his 85th career start, Lugo registered his first career complete game in Sunday's win over the White Sox. The 2024 All-Star lowered his ERA to 2.38 in the win, which ties him with Corbin Burnes for the lowest in the MLB. Lugo's 12 wins are also one behind Chris Sale for the most in MLB this season.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Seth Lugo generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Seth Lugo generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-3%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-13%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-3%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-40%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.232	707	177	46	151	30	3	19
Since 2022vs Right	.238	712	154	38	158	30	2	20
2024vs Left	.236	287	68	20	62	12	1	4
2024vs Right	.205	256	54	10	49	10	1	7
2023vs Left	.252	307	76	18	72	15	2	12
2023vs Right	.245	297	64	18	68	14	1	7
2022vs Left	.167	113	33	8	17	3	0	3
2022vs Right	.279	159	36	10	41	6	0	6
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-4%

ERA at Home

2024

-11%

ERA at Home

2023

-4%

ERA on Road

2022

-10%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.04	1.14	160.0	10	6	1	8.6	2.1	0.9
Since 2022Away	3.17	1.13	187.1	13	7	2	8.6	2.3	1.1
2024Home	2.24	1.03	64.1	5	2	0	7.4	1.7	0.7
2024Away	2.51	1.05	71.2	7	2	0	8.7	2.3	0.8
2023Home	3.66	1.23	64.0	4	4	0	8.9	2.1	1.0
2023Away	3.50	1.18	82.1	4	3	0	8.4	2.3	1.3
2022Home	3.41	1.17	31.2	1	0	1	10.5	2.8	1.1
2022Away	3.78	1.17	33.1	2	2	2	8.6	2.2	1.4
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Stat Review

How does Seth Lugo compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

4.07

K/9

8.1

BB/9

2.0

HR/9

0.7

Fastball

92.3 mph

ERA

2.38

WHIP

1.04

BABIP

.277

GB/FB

1.41

Left On Base

82.0%

Exit Velocity

81.4 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.6%

Spin Rate

2587 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

25.3%

Swinging Strike

10.0%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

Lugo signed a one-year, $7.5 deal with the Padres that includes incentives for starting and relieving. The 33-year-old has appeared in 275 games throughout his seven-year career, with only 38 of those outings coming as a starter. Lugo has worked exclusively in relief the past two seasons, compiling a 3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 124:37 K:BB over 111.1 innings, but he currently projects to open 2023 as San Diego's fifth starter and will build up as such. If he wins that job during spring training, it's reasonable to envision him shifting to the bullpen at some point, similar to Nick Martinez last year.

Once an elite reliever in 2018 and 2019, Seth Lugo posted a 2.68 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28.6% K%, and 6.1% BB% in 181.1 innings. Lugo saved nine games in 15 chances with 32 holds in 2018 and 2019. He continued as a starter and reliever in 2020 and 2021 with an above-average 28.7% K%, but the ratios jumped to a 4.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, plus an increase in BB% to 8.2% in 83 innings. Lugo underwent elbow surgery to remove loose bodies in February 2021, then returned in June as a reliever. He possesses starter-like stuff with four pitches eliciting a double-digit SwStr% in the 4-seam, curve, slider, and change. It's rare for a reliever to use four pitches relatively evenly too. Assuming full health, Lugo should improve the K-BB% closer to 2019 and 2020 (26.4%) in a middle relief role to help with ratios and strikeouts. However, he's more of a waiver wire pickup or draft-and-hold league target.

To this point, the Mets haven't been able to figure out what to do with Lugo. After breaking him in as a swingman, they tried him as the closer down the stretch in 2019 and Lugo thrived, but then they talked about potentially stretching him back out as a starter. Lugo was in the bullpen when the 2020 season finally got underway and he racked up three saves in his first seven appearances, but then New York did indeed move him to a starting role, which proved to be a bad move as Lugo struggled to a 6.15 ERA as a starter (2.61 ERA as a reliever). His fastball velocity was only around 92-93 mph on average in September, down a couple ticks from where he was as a reliever in 2019. Lugo's overall K-BB% was still a stellar 23.1%. Hopefully this new regime puts Lugo in the bullpen and leaves him be. He's a lot better than he showed in 2020 and we know he can be a late-inning weapon, ultra-effective in short spurts.

Lugo had his best season yet in his fourth year in the majors, his first one spent entirely in the bullpen. While his 2.70 ERA was marginally behind his numbers in 2016 and 2018, his 2.70 FIP and 3.24 xFIP were each career bests. His 5.1% walk rate was likewise a career low, while his excellent 33.1% strikeout rate smashed his previous career high of 25.1%. With Edwin Diaz falling far short of expectations, Lugo even picked up six saves. The Mets want Diaz to be the closer they expected when they traded for him prior to the 2019 season, and there is talk that Lugo might be stretched out as a starter this spring. If Diaz struggles for the second straight year, newly-signed Dellin Betances looks like the most likely beneficiary. Lugo can still offer value in rotisserie leagues due to his heavy workload (80 innings) and high strikeout rate, just don't expect him to top last year's saves total.

Lugo was versatile for the Mets last season, serving as a starter, closer and middle reliever at different times throughout the campaign. His 2019 plan looks similar; he’s been told by the new regime in New York to prepare for any job, though closing is probably off the table after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle. Lugo’s fastball played up in relief and gave him closer-like peripherals, but he can also spread the wealth with five solid-to-awesome offerings as a starter, including a Statcast-melting curveball. Chances are, he will spend most of the year in a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, once again pitching roughly 100 innings. This is the wave of the future, and these highly-skilled non-closers, previously afterthoughts in traditional mixed leagues, are growing more appealing with fewer workhorse starters in the game. Consider tucking Lugo away in the late rounds.

Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart.

Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.

More Fantasy News

Uncharacteristically ineffective

PKansas City Royals

July 13, 2024

Lugo (11-4) took the loss against Boston on Saturday, allowing five runs on 10 hits and one walk while striking out six batters over five innings.