Pavin Smith
25-Year-Old First Baseman1B
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Plate discipline is one of the most transferable skills between the minors and majors, so it's no surprise that Smith posted a better-than-average walk rate (11.4%) and strikeout rate (18.2%) during his first stint as a big-leaguer last season. The sample size (44 at-bats) is admittedly small, but given Smith's consistently elite control of the zone during his collegiate and professional career, there is little doubt about the 2017 first-round pick's ability to get on base. What has prevented Smith from gaining more prospect buzz, however, is his questionable power. Over 1,074 minor-league at-bats, he has hit only 23 balls out of the park (46.7 AB/HR), and he collected just one homer in 37 at-bats with the Diamondbacks last season. The poor power stroke is especially concerning given Smith's primary position (first base), and it could block his path to regular major-league at-bats should it fail to blossom. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#596
ADP
$Signed a $5.01 million contract with the Diamondbacks in June of 2017.
Supplies offense in loss
1BArizona Diamondbacks
May 7, 2021
Smith went 3-for-5 with a double and an RBI in Thursday's 3-1 loss to Miami.
ANALYSIS
Smith provided the only offense for the Diamondbacks, who had trouble scoring runs during a three-game sweep at the hands of the Marlins. He's been a lineup regular for much of the season due to injuries and should continue to see regular at-bats with Kole Calhoun (hamstring) sidelined until mid-June.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
12
1
3
2
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
1
1
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+17%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+12%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+38%
OPS vs LHP
2019
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .864 33 8 1 2 0 .300 .364 .500
Since 2019vs Right .738 121 12 3 13 2 .261 .306 .432
2021vs Left .833 27 7 1 2 0 .250 .333 .500
2021vs Right .742 84 6 2 9 1 .272 .298 .444
2020vs Left 1.000 6 1 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500
2020vs Right .724 37 6 1 4 1 .233 .324 .400
2019vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+14%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+21%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
2019
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .697 58 6 2 6 2 .231 .293 .404
Since 2019Away .797 97 14 2 9 0 .289 .330 .467
2021Home .669 35 3 1 4 1 .235 .257 .412
2021Away .808 76 10 2 7 0 .282 .329 .479
2020Home .737 23 3 1 2 1 .222 .348 .389
2020Away .754 21 4 0 2 0 .316 .333 .421
2019Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Pavin Smith compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.32
 
BB Rate
5.4%
 
K Rate
17.1%
 
BABIP
.301
 
ISO
.190
 
AVG
.267
 
OBP
.306
 
SLG
.457
 
OPS
.763
 
wOBA
.332
 
Exit Velocity
85.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
37.2%
 
Barrels/PA
5.3%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Pavin Smith
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NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
19 days ago
Jan Levine analyzes the latest crop of available players with a look towards Harrison Bader's eventual return.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
Smith's batting profile has been remarkably consistent year to year in his three professional seasons. His strikeout rate has ranged from 10.8% to 12.9% while his walk rate has ranged from 11.3% to 12.1%. He had 12 home runs in 507 plate appearances at Double-A after totaling 11 in 504 plate appearances at High-A in 2018. These plate skills are promising, but those power numbers are a problem, though the 2017 seventh-overall pick did at least show more gap power last year with 29 doubles and six triples, lifting his ISO nearly 40 points. If Smith is to become a major-league regular at first base, he will need more of those doubles and triples to clear the fences. We saw a massive spike in power across baseball in 2019 and many players who were not expected to hit for power did. Keep an eye out to see if more power shows up at Triple-A. It is the piece of the puzzle that will either make or break Smith.
The 2017 seventh overall pick hit a mediocre .255/.343/.392 in 120 games for High-A Visalia, smacking 11 homers after failing to hit a single one in his first 51 professional games for Low-A Hillsboro the season prior. Smith demonstrated excellent control of the zone, walking 11.3% of the time while striking out in just 12.9% of his plate appearances. Players who have these kind of advanced plate skills sometimes tap into more power as they age, or they benefit from the bouncier big-league baseball. If the power never comes it will be hard for Smith to clear the very high offensive bar required for a major-league first baseman.
A college first baseman who received the eighth-highest bonus ($5.01 million) in the 2017 draft, Smith proved after signing that he is a unique offensive talent. He had more walks (27) than strikeouts (24) while finishing third in the Northwest League in average (.318) and OBP (.401) and fourth in wRC+ (136), yet he failed to hit a home run. Of the qualified hitters in that league, he was one of only seven players who failed to homer, which is concerning given his age (21) and position. It is hard to find recent precedent for a college first baseman failing to hit for power in his pro debut and going on to be a quality big-league first baseman. Smith's backers will point to his excellent hit tool -- perhaps the best in the entire 2017 draft -- and say that he will add power as he gets more comfortable against pro pitching. Unless he is going at a nice discount in dynasty drafts, it is probably wise to let someone else bet on the power showing up.
More Fantasy News
Slams third home run
1BArizona Diamondbacks
May 2, 2021
Smith went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in the 8-4 win Sunday over the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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Triples, scores in win
1BArizona Diamondbacks
May 1, 2021
Smith went 1-for-4 with a triple, a run scored and a walk in the 7-2 win over the Rockies on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Could be needed in RF
1BArizona Diamondbacks
April 28, 2021
Smith may need to fill in for the injured Kole Calhoun (hamstring) in right field.
ANALYSIS
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Cranks leadoff home run
1BArizona Diamondbacks
April 25, 2021
Smith went 3-for-4 with a solo home run in Sunday's 7-0 win over the Braves.
ANALYSIS
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Makes second start in CF
1BArizona Diamondbacks
April 24, 2021
Smith went 1-for-4 with a run scored in Friday's 5-4 loss to Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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