Pablo Lopez
Pablo Lopez
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Miami Marlins
2021 Fantasy Outlook
The Marlins were one of the best stories in baseball last season, and their impressive corps of young starters -- which includes Lopez -- was a big reason for their success. Lopez had a couple clunkers in early September, but he still managed a 3.09 FIP during the regular season, ranking 15th among all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. He bumped his strikeout rate up to 24.6%, a number supported by a healthy 35.1 O-Swing% and 12.1 SwStr% (per FanGraphs). The right-hander works mostly four-seam fastball-sinker-changeup, which is a mix conducive to generating groundballs and weak contact. His curveball showed flashes of coming along as a put-away pitch last season, although it got crushed when he left it out over the heart of the plate. Lopez has not hurt himself with walks with a career 6.6 BB% at the big-league level. There is real upside here although the cat's already out of the bag in many circles. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#132
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Marlins in March of 2018.
Takes loss despite quality start
PMiami Marlins
April 18, 2021
Lopez (0-2) was tagged with the loss Sunday against the Giants after tossing six innings of one-run ball. He allowed six hits and two walks while fanning nine.
ANALYSIS
Lopez was the victim of the Marlins' offensive struggles in this one, as Miami went 3-for-29 as a team and didn't score a single run, negating Lopez's impressive outing. The right-hander has given up two or fewer runs in three of his first four appearances, and it seems his outing at Atlanta -- when he allowed six runs and nine hits across four innings -- was nothing more than a bump in the road. He owns a 3.32 ERA through his first 21.2 innings in 2021.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
90
Last 10 Games
90
Last 5 Games
90
How many pitches does Pablo Lopez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Pablo Lopez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-29%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-32%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-32%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-28%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .291 412 74 28 109 31 2 11
Since 2019vs Right .206 375 99 22 70 9 1 11
2021vs Left .289 42 10 4 11 4 0 1
2021vs Right .196 49 15 3 9 0 0 2
2020vs Left .269 129 19 7 32 12 0 1
2020vs Right .184 98 34 9 16 1 0 3
2019vs Left .303 241 45 17 66 15 2 9
2019vs Right .217 228 50 10 45 8 1 6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-59%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-92%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-54%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 2.79 1.03 113.0 6 6 0 8.3 2.1 0.6
Since 2019Away 6.87 1.51 77.1 5 8 0 8.7 3.0 1.7
2021Home 1.02 0.96 17.2 0 2 0 9.7 3.1 0.5
2021Away 13.50 2.50 4.0 0 0 0 13.5 2.3 4.5
2020Home 2.56 0.95 31.2 3 1 0 8.8 1.1 0.6
2020Away 4.91 1.48 25.2 3 3 0 9.8 4.9 0.7
2019Home 3.39 1.08 63.2 3 3 0 7.6 2.3 0.6
2019Away 7.36 1.45 47.2 2 5 0 7.7 2.1 2.1
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Pablo Lopez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.57
 
K/9
10.4
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
93.8 mph
 
ERA
3.32
 
WHIP
1.25
 
BABIP
.320
 
GB/FB
1.87
 
Left On Base
78.9%
 
Exit Velocity
78.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.7%
 
Spin Rate
2063 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
19.3%
 
Swinging Strike
12.1%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Pablo Lopez
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Breakdown
4 days ago
Dan Marcus says not to be fooled by Robbie Ray's decent season debut and grab a few KC bats for today's matchup.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Just Another Marathon Monday
5 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitchers, as Lucas Giolito gets two starts, including the Patriots' Day game in Boston on Monday morning.
MLB Betting: Tuesday Best Bets
9 days ago
Joe Sheehan trusts the process in light of some tough beats last week and digs back in for Tuesday's mega-slate with four wagers he's targeting, including a bounce-back for the Astros against the Tigers.
FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Targets
9 days ago
Chris Bennett looks over Tuesday's slate and recommends stocking up on Houston bats like Alex Bregman against the Tigers' Matthew Boyd.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Pocket Aces Abound
12 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as a number of aces are scheduled for two starts, including the Yankees' Gerrit Cole.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
The right-hander made his debut for the Marlins in 2018, and after becoming the talk of the Grapefruit League last spring, earned a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Lopez put together a solid first half (4.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) before going down with a shoulder strain, which sidelined him for over two months. He struggled in seven starts after coming off the IL with a 7.01 ERA. Lopez had a 20.3 K% and 5.8 BB% and mixes in a curveball and changeup to go with his 94-mph fastball. His numbers don't jump off the page, and he could be hurt some by the Marlins moving in the fences, but he is only entering his age-24 season, so we should not consider him a finished product. He could get by as a low-WHIP groundball pitcher even if his strikeout rate doesn't significantly improve. If he can come anywhere near his first-half numbers from last season he should see consistent innings for Miami.
Lopez hadn't pitched above High-A prior to the 2018 season, but a series of good starts in the high minors saw him promoted to the big leagues in late June. He performed competently in 10 starts for the struggling Marlins, recording a 4.14 ERA before being shut down with a shoulder strain in early September. His greatest strength thus far in his professional career has been his ability to avoid walks -- his 7.3% walk rate in his debut was good, though he'd actually kept his walk rate at 5.0% or below at each of his minor-league stops. His 18.6% strikeout rate wasn't particularly impressive, however, leaving him looking like a back-end starter. It's unclear if he'll have a chance to fill out the Marlins' rotation from the start of this season, but his pitcher-friendly home park will make him a decent deep-league streaming option when called upon.
More Fantasy News
Hit hard in no-decision
PMiami Marlins
April 14, 2021
Lopez allowed six runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out six over four innings of work, taking a no-decision in Tuesday's outing against Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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Tough-luck loser
PMiami Marlins
April 7, 2021
Lopez (0-1) allowed two earned runs on three hits and two walks while striking out six across 6.2 innings to take the loss Wednesday against the Cardinals.
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Strong start wasted
PMiami Marlins
April 3, 2021
Lopez didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 6-4 loss to the Rays, giving up two hits and two walks over five scoreless innings while striking out four.
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Slotted second in rotation
PMiami Marlins
March 21, 2021
Lopez will take the mound for the Marlins' second game of the season, April 2 against the Rays, Bill Ladson of MLB.com reports.
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Looking to add fifth pitch
PMiami Marlins
March 3, 2021
Lopez has been working on a breaking pitch to add to his fastball, sinker, cutter and changeup, Jordan McPherson of The Miami Herald reports. "It can only help me," Lopez explained Tuesday after throwing two shutout innings in his first spring training appearance. "As a starting pitcher, your main focus is you have to go through the lineup three or hopefully four times, so the more good pitches you have that you feel comfortable throwing in any count, the more unpredictable you remain, which is a huge weapon. You don't want to fall into patterns. You don't want to become too predictable."
ANALYSIS
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