Pablo Lopez
Pablo Lopez
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Miami Marlins
10-Day IL
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 8/15/2021
2021 Fantasy Outlook
The Marlins were one of the best stories in baseball last season, and their impressive corps of young starters -- which includes Lopez -- was a big reason for their success. Lopez had a couple clunkers in early September, but he still managed a 3.09 FIP during the regular season, ranking 15th among all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. He bumped his strikeout rate up to 24.6%, a number supported by a healthy 35.1 O-Swing% and 12.1 SwStr% (per FanGraphs). The right-hander works mostly four-seam fastball-sinker-changeup, which is a mix conducive to generating groundballs and weak contact. His curveball showed flashes of coming along as a put-away pitch last season, although it got crushed when he left it out over the heart of the plate. Lopez has not hurt himself with walks with a career 6.6 BB% at the big-league level. There is real upside here although the cat's already out of the bag in many circles. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#131
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Marlins in March of 2018.
Set to begin flat-ground throwing
PMiami Marlins
Shoulder
July 27, 2021
Marlins manager Don Mattingly said Tuesday that Lopez (shoulder) will initiate throwing off flat ground later this week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Lopez seems to have made some progress in his recovery from a right rotator cuff strain since being placed on the injured list a week and a half ago, but he still has several more hurdles to clear in the rehab process before the Marlins will consider reinstating him. At this point, fantasy managers shouldn't bank on Lopez returning until mid-August at the earliest, which may make it difficult to justify holding him in leagues with limited IL or bench spots.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
86
Last 10 Games
82
Last 5 Games
74
How many pitches does Pablo Lopez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Pablo Lopez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-22%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-32%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-28%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .271 573 106 38 142 40 2 12
Since 2019vs Right .212 532 153 30 102 16 3 17
2021vs Left .235 203 42 14 44 13 0 2
2021vs Right .219 206 69 11 41 7 2 8
2020vs Left .269 129 19 7 32 12 0 1
2020vs Right .184 98 34 9 16 1 0 3
2019vs Left .303 241 45 17 66 15 2 9
2019vs Right .217 228 50 10 45 8 1 6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-52%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-54%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 2.77 1.03 159.0 9 7 0 9.0 2.0 0.6
Since 2019Away 5.77 1.38 110.2 7 10 0 8.6 2.8 1.5
2021Home 2.26 1.01 63.2 3 3 0 10.5 2.3 0.7
2021Away 4.34 1.23 37.1 2 2 0 8.9 2.2 1.2
2020Home 2.56 0.95 31.2 3 1 0 8.8 1.1 0.6
2020Away 4.91 1.48 25.2 3 3 0 9.8 4.9 0.7
2019Home 3.39 1.08 63.2 3 3 0 7.6 2.3 0.6
2019Away 7.36 1.45 47.2 2 5 0 7.7 2.1 2.1
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Pablo Lopez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.44
 
K/9
9.9
 
BB/9
2.2
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
93.9 mph
 
ERA
3.03
 
WHIP
1.09
 
BABIP
.301
 
GB/FB
1.81
 
Left On Base
77.1%
 
Exit Velocity
80.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.6%
 
Spin Rate
2070 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
19.8%
 
Swinging Strike
12.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Pablo Lopez
Mound Musings: Help Is on the Way?
8 days ago
Brad Johnson writes about the Futures Game, where promising young pitchers like the Rays’ Shane Baz were showcased, and Johnson provides a brief update on a handful injured pitchers.
Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: The Year’s Top Four Injuries
9 days ago
With a nod to Groundhog Day, Jeff Stotts writes about what he believes are the season’s four biggest injuries, starting with the oblique strain and its impact on Francisco Lindor.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
12 days ago
Dan Marcus reviews a number of available NL players, including a veteran Milwaukee outfielder in line to receive significant playing time.
Mound Musings: 2021 First-Year Player Draft Edition
15 days ago
Brad Johnson offers his analysis of the 2021 draft day pitching prospects, starting with Jack Leiter who went to the Texas Rangers with the second overall pick.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: The Short and Long of It
15 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the starting pitchers for the next scoring periods. No surprise, Jacob deGrom is on top.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
The right-hander made his debut for the Marlins in 2018, and after becoming the talk of the Grapefruit League last spring, earned a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Lopez put together a solid first half (4.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) before going down with a shoulder strain, which sidelined him for over two months. He struggled in seven starts after coming off the IL with a 7.01 ERA. Lopez had a 20.3 K% and 5.8 BB% and mixes in a curveball and changeup to go with his 94-mph fastball. His numbers don't jump off the page, and he could be hurt some by the Marlins moving in the fences, but he is only entering his age-24 season, so we should not consider him a finished product. He could get by as a low-WHIP groundball pitcher even if his strikeout rate doesn't significantly improve. If he can come anywhere near his first-half numbers from last season he should see consistent innings for Miami.
Lopez hadn't pitched above High-A prior to the 2018 season, but a series of good starts in the high minors saw him promoted to the big leagues in late June. He performed competently in 10 starts for the struggling Marlins, recording a 4.14 ERA before being shut down with a shoulder strain in early September. His greatest strength thus far in his professional career has been his ability to avoid walks -- his 7.3% walk rate in his debut was good, though he'd actually kept his walk rate at 5.0% or below at each of his minor-league stops. His 18.6% strikeout rate wasn't particularly impressive, however, leaving him looking like a back-end starter. It's unclear if he'll have a chance to fill out the Marlins' rotation from the start of this season, but his pitcher-friendly home park will make him a decent deep-league streaming option when called upon.
More Fantasy News
To IL with shoulder injury
PMiami Marlins
Shoulder
July 17, 2021
Lopez was placed on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right rotator cuff strain, Fish Stripes reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sets MLB record in win
PMiami Marlins
July 11, 2021
Lopez (5-5) earned the win Sunday versus Atlanta. He allowed three runs on five hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in six innings.
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Whiffs eight in no-decision
PMiami Marlins
July 6, 2021
Lopez did not factor into the decision during Tuesday's win over the Dodgers. He allowed one run on four hits and a walk while striking out eight across four innings.
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Stuck with bizarre loss
PMiami Marlins
July 3, 2021
Lopez (4-5) took the loss Friday despite being ejected after facing only one batter, as he was charged with the only run of the game in a 1-0 win by Atlanta.
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Ejected from Friday's game
PMiami Marlins
July 2, 2021
Lopez was ejected from Friday's matchup against Atlanta after he hit Ronald Acuna with the first pitch of the game, Kevin McAlpin of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
ANALYSIS
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