Pablo Lopez

Pablo Lopez

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Miami Marlins
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Lopez is the type of pitcher that can make or break a fantasy team. He absolutely has front-of-the-rotation stuff, highlighted by one of the best changeups in baseball. He is quite capable of throwing any one of his five pitches to both righties and lefties and putting it where he needs to put it. The league hit below .235 against four of his five offerings and only took him yard 11 times on the season. He has improved his K-BB% each of his four seasons in the majors, and his WHIP has improved in a similar pattern. The only question mark with Lopez is health because he has yet to demonstrate it over the course of a full season. He went down in his final outing before the break with shoulder tightness and did not make it back on the mound until the final day of the season. Lopez has yet to work even 115 innings in any professional season, so you can't draft him as an ace. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#140
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Marlins in March of 2018.
Matches Burnes in pitchers' duel
PMiami Marlins
May 13, 2022
Lopez did not factor into the decision Friday against the Brewers despite striking out 11 batters while allowing one run on three hits and no walks across seven innings.
ANALYSIS
Lopez gave up a leadoff homer to Kolten Wong to start the game before settling in for seven dominant frames. Unfortunately for him and the Marlins, Corbin Burnes was just as good for the visitors, allowing just one run in seven innings as well. While it wasn't good enough for a win, it was still another dominant showing from Lopez, who now owns a 1.05 ERA through seven starts. He'll look to keep that remarkable run going Wednesday against Washington.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
92
Last 10 Games
92
Last 5 Games
95
How many pitches does Pablo Lopez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Pablo Lopez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-12%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-32%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .234 428 86 25 93 29 0 6
Since 2020vs Right .206 379 128 25 71 11 2 11
2022vs Left .161 90 23 3 14 3 0 2
2022vs Right .194 72 23 5 13 3 0 0
2021vs Left .245 209 44 15 47 14 0 3
2021vs Right .221 209 71 11 42 7 2 8
2020vs Left .269 129 19 7 32 12 0 1
2020vs Right .184 98 34 9 16 1 0 3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-38%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-69%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-46%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 2.23 0.98 121.0 8 5 0 10.3 1.9 0.7
Since 2020Away 3.62 1.21 82.0 7 5 0 9.0 3.0 0.8
2022Home 1.50 0.83 24.0 2 1 0 10.9 1.5 0.8
2022Away 0.47 0.79 19.0 2 0 0 8.1 1.9 0.0
2021Home 2.34 1.06 65.1 3 3 0 10.7 2.3 0.8
2021Away 4.34 1.23 37.1 2 2 0 8.9 2.2 1.2
2020Home 2.56 0.95 31.2 3 1 0 8.8 1.1 0.6
2020Away 4.91 1.48 25.2 3 3 0 9.8 4.9 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Pablo Lopez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.75
 
K/9
9.6
 
BB/9
1.7
 
HR/9
0.4
 
Fastball
93.0 mph
 
ERA
1.05
 
WHIP
0.81
 
BABIP
.249
 
GB/FB
1.53
 
Left On Base
90.1%
 
Exit Velocity
82.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.7%
 
Spin Rate
2095 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.7%
 
Swinging Strike
14.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Pablo Lopez
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2 days ago
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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Mercury Rising
4 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as warming weather is contributing to more scoring. Sugar Shane McClanahan only has one start, but still tops the AL rankings.
Collette Calls: Still Chasing Wins
5 days ago
Wins have been hard to come by this season. Jason Collette examines early run-support numbers and notes pitchers that have enjoyed good fortune in that regard, and those that have not, like Corbin Burnes.
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
9 days ago
Erik Halterman uses Monday's column to compare a player's NFBC average draft position to his Earned Auction Value ranking, beginning his analysis with Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Knock on Woodruff
11 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as two-start Brandon Woodruff is looking good after a rough opener.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
The Marlins were one of the best stories in baseball last season, and their impressive corps of young starters -- which includes Lopez -- was a big reason for their success. Lopez had a couple clunkers in early September, but he still managed a 3.09 FIP during the regular season, ranking 15th among all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. He bumped his strikeout rate up to 24.6%, a number supported by a healthy 35.1 O-Swing% and 12.1 SwStr% (per FanGraphs). The right-hander works mostly four-seam fastball-sinker-changeup, which is a mix conducive to generating groundballs and weak contact. His curveball showed flashes of coming along as a put-away pitch last season, although it got crushed when he left it out over the heart of the plate. Lopez has not hurt himself with walks with a career 6.6 BB% at the big-league level. There is real upside here although the cat's already out of the bag in many circles.
The right-hander made his debut for the Marlins in 2018, and after becoming the talk of the Grapefruit League last spring, earned a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Lopez put together a solid first half (4.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) before going down with a shoulder strain, which sidelined him for over two months. He struggled in seven starts after coming off the IL with a 7.01 ERA. Lopez had a 20.3 K% and 5.8 BB% and mixes in a curveball and changeup to go with his 94-mph fastball. His numbers don't jump off the page, and he could be hurt some by the Marlins moving in the fences, but he is only entering his age-24 season, so we should not consider him a finished product. He could get by as a low-WHIP groundball pitcher even if his strikeout rate doesn't significantly improve. If he can come anywhere near his first-half numbers from last season he should see consistent innings for Miami.
Lopez hadn't pitched above High-A prior to the 2018 season, but a series of good starts in the high minors saw him promoted to the big leagues in late June. He performed competently in 10 starts for the struggling Marlins, recording a 4.14 ERA before being shut down with a shoulder strain in early September. His greatest strength thus far in his professional career has been his ability to avoid walks -- his 7.3% walk rate in his debut was good, though he'd actually kept his walk rate at 5.0% or below at each of his minor-league stops. His 18.6% strikeout rate wasn't particularly impressive, however, leaving him looking like a back-end starter. It's unclear if he'll have a chance to fill out the Marlins' rotation from the start of this season, but his pitcher-friendly home park will make him a decent deep-league streaming option when called upon.
More Fantasy News
Tosses eight scoreless frames
PMiami Marlins
May 7, 2022
Lopez (4-1) earned the win during Saturday's 8-0 shutout of San Diego, allowing five hits and two walks with five strikeouts in eight scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Handed first loss
PMiami Marlins
May 2, 2022
Lopez (3-1) allowed four runs on six hits and two walks over 4.2 innings Monday, striking out seven and taking a loss against Arizona.
ANALYSIS
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Scoreless streak continues
PMiami Marlins
April 28, 2022
Lopez (3-0) picked up the win in Wednesday's 2-1 victory over the Nationals, scattering three hits and a walk over six scoreless innings while striking out six.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates with seven shutout frames
PMiami Marlins
April 21, 2022
Lopez (2-0) secured the win against St. Louis on Thursday, yielding three hits and striking out nine over seven scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Cruises to first win
PMiami Marlins
April 16, 2022
Lopez (1-0) picked up the win in Friday's 7-1 victory over the Phillies, giving up four hits and two walks over 5.1 scoreless innings. He struck out two.
ANALYSIS
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