Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco
32-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cleveland Indians
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Carrasco's 2018 season was stellar overall, but his second half in particular was especially brilliant. He was borderline untouchable coming out of the All-Star break and finished with a 2.52 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 in the second half. His 27.3 K-BB% after the break ranked fifth among qualified starters, behind Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and German Marquez. Though he still has just one 200-inning season to his name, those once-prevalent durability question marks have largely faded into the background with Carrasco as he has surpassed 180 innings in three of the last four years, which in today's game qualifies him as a workhorse. He did miss a brief stretch during the summer, but that was the result of a line drive off the forearm. Carrasco is going to be 32 on Opening Day, so the downturn may be coming, but he's shown no signs of falling off so far and thus Carrasco should be treated as a fantasy ace. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $47 million contract extension with the Indians in December of 2018. Contract includes a $14 million team option ($3 million buyout) for 2023.
Spins gem in Seattle
PCleveland Indians
April 17, 2019
Carrasco (2-2) picked up the win Wednesday, giving up three hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings while striking out 12 as Cleveland downed Seattle 1-0.
Afternoon shadows didn't help the batters for either team -- there were only six total hits in the game -- and Carrasco took full advantage, racking up a whopping 23 swinging strikes among his 108 pitches (72 total strikes). Even after the stellar outing the right-hander still carries a 7.41 ERA, but his 29:5 K:BB through 17 innings offers a much more encouraging prognosis on his performance so far. Carrasco could be lined up for another impressive start Tuesday, when he takes on the Marlins at home.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .247 801 227 52 181 35 6 27
Since 2017vs Right .237 861 259 42 190 51 3 18
2019vs Left .265 38 14 3 9 2 1 2
2019vs Right .410 42 15 2 16 9 0 1
2018vs Left .248 397 112 26 90 14 4 11
2018vs Right .229 387 119 17 83 17 2 10
2017vs Left .244 366 101 23 82 19 1 14
2017vs Right .228 432 125 23 91 25 1 7
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA on Road
Since 2017Home 3.95 1.22 182.1 17 8 0 10.9 2.0 1.3
Since 2017Away 3.14 1.07 226.2 20 10 0 10.5 2.1 0.8
2019Home 3.60 1.40 5.0 1 0 0 21.6 1.8 1.8
2019Away 9.00 1.92 12.0 1 2 0 12.8 3.0 1.5
2018Home 3.92 1.23 82.2 9 4 0 11.1 2.1 1.3
2018Away 2.96 1.04 109.1 8 6 0 10.6 2.0 0.7
2017Home 3.99 1.20 94.2 7 4 0 10.2 2.0 1.2
2017Away 2.65 1.00 105.1 11 2 0 10.2 2.1 0.7
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Stat Review
How does Carlos Carrasco compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
93.0 mph
Strand %
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Carlos Carrasco
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Subject to Change
Todd Zola's pitcher rankings have a lot of volatility this week thanks to rain, injuries and suspensions, while top-rated Carlos Carrasco looks to build off a strong outing.
FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Breakdown
4 days ago
Kevin Payne surveys Wednesday's slate and thinks now is the time to roster Jose Ramirez, before his salary rises back up.
Regan's Rumblings: 10 Pitchers – Patience or Panic
5 days ago
Dave Regan looks at 10 pitchers off to slow starts to try to determine whether each case calls for patience or panic. Is it time to get nervous about Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola?
Oak's Corner: Around the League
7 days ago
Scott Jenstad revisits some of his favorite ballparks and describes the past week in baseball, including Pete Alonso’s red-hot start.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Double the Fun
8 days ago
Todd Zola's weekly pitcher rankings feature a number of solid two-start options, including Washington's Stephen Strasburg, who faces two the league's weakest lineups.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
Carrasco has delivered ace-level production since late 2014, but it wasn't until his DL-free 2017 season that fantasy owners were able to reap the full benefits of his talents. The right-hander shook off durability concerns to reach 200 innings for the first time while churning out a 22.6 K-BB percentage that ranked sixth among qualified starters. Carrasco curbed the home-run issues that occasionally dogged him in 2016, with his 12.4 percent HR/FB representing his best showing in the category since 2011. Carrasco's improvement in that regard is rendered more impressive considering the league-wide power context and offers optimism about his ability to sustain ERAs in the low 3.00s going forward. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old, Carrasco's past injury issues shouldn't be completely forgotten, but there isn't much reason to doubt him continuing to pitch at a high level.
The final numbers for Carrasco look well and good, but his owners were left wondering; what might have been? Carrasco missed more than month after suffering a hamstring strain in his fourth start of the season, and a non-displaced hand fracture ended his season prematurely in September. He wasn't quite as dominant when on the mound, as his strikeout rate fell from 29.6 percent to 25.0 percent, while his hard-hit and HR/9 rates leaped considerably (to 36.4 percent and 1.29, respectively). His fastball and slider velocity averages were down a tick overall from 2015, but Carrasco regained some of those losses late in the year. Further, his walk and groundball rates remain excellent, and his strikeout rate was still strong for a starting pitcher. If he can stay healthy and reduce the amount of hard contact allowed, Carrasco could return to borderline ace status. Unfortunately, he's not off to a good start with the "stay healthy" part, having come down with some swelling in his elbow during spring training. The Indians say there is no structural damage.
Carrasco was one of the biggest gambles in 2015. Not only was his 134-inning sample from 2014 small by itself, but it was really the 69 innings to close the season that ramped up his cost, so an already-small sample was parsed even further to make him a top-30 starter. The result was a top-15 starter despite adding more than a run to his ERA. His skills remained elite for 30 starts with some poor defense and a comebacker that hit him being the only obstacles in his way. In fact, once Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela shored up the left side of the infield, Carrasco had a 3.12 ERA in 110 innings (4.38 in 74 prior). Carrasco is one of four pitchers with a 25-plus percent K-rate, 50-plus percent groundball rate, and 4.0-plus K/BB since the start of 2014, along with Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta and Felix Hernandez. These skills are worthy of much better than a 3.63 ERA.
If you have ever wondered why those guys with prospect pedigree get several chances even when it seems hopeless, Carrasco’s 2014 is an example of how well it can pan out when it does finally come together. That doesn't mean you will always see it coming, as Carrasco had a 5.29 ERA in 238 major league innings along with a Tommy John surgery under his belt before this breakout. Then he kicked off 2014 with a 6.95 ERA in his first four starts, which only further suggested that it just wasn’t going to work. He spent the next three-plus months cultivating a slider in the bullpen before returning to the rotation and pitching as arguably the best arm in baseball. His 1.30 ERA upon returning to the rotation was baseball’s best while his 0.81 WHIP was third-best. Elite velocity and three bankable secondary pitches fueled the success and leave many encouraged for a full season in the rotation in 2015. There’s still risk betting on a 69-inning sample, but there is a lot to love here and Carrasco could be Cleveland’s next stud.
Carrasco struggled with the Indians in a starting role but excelled at Triple-A (3-1, 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 14 starts) after missing the entire 2012 season following Tommy John surgery. He should get a look at the back end of the rotation following the departures of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, but could shift into a late-inning relief role if he's unable to crack the starting rotation. Although the results in the big leagues were disappointing, Carrasco saw a significant spike in the velocity of his fastball, which averaged a career-high 94.9 mph in 2013. The raw tools remain intriguing, but perhaps a max-effort relief role would mitigate his issues with hard contact while reducing the impact of his secondary offerings.
Carrasco missed the entire season following Tommy John surgery, but showed some nice velocity in his rehab appearances in September, touching the low-90s with his fastball. The Indians fully expect him to compete for a rotation spot this spring. He's struggled at times (1.47 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 33 career starts) but has shown some glimpses of promise as well. He could make for a nice upside play in deeper formats after missing all of last season, especially considering his age and the Indians' need for viable arms in their rotation.
Carrasco battled an elbow injury from the start of the season, hitting the DL in April, and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery in August. He wasn't overly effective in the 21 starts he was able to make and hasn't panned out like the Indians had hoped after being acquired as a top prospect from the Phillies farm system as part of the Cliff Lee deal in 2009. He'll miss most, if not all, of the 2012 season recovering from elbow surgery.
Carrasco caught fire in the second half at Triple-A Columbus and earned himself a promotion to the Indians in September. He pitched well enough (2-2, 3.83 ERA, 1.366 WHIP in seven starts) to cement a spot in the starting rotation this year and enters the season as the team's likely No. 3 starter. There's more pedigree here than you might think, as Carrasco was once regarded as the top prospect in the Phillies farm system before the Indians acquired him in the Cliff Lee deal in July 2009. With an ability to induce groundballs (2.27 G/F) and an ample 7.66 K/9IP mark, he could surprise as the rebuilding efforts in Cleveland continue.
Carrasco entered the season as the Phillies' top prospect, struggled at Triple-A Lehigh Valley and found himself as the centerpiece in the Cliff Lee deal. He hit the ground running at Triple-A Columbus (42.1 innings, 31 hits, 36:7 K:BB) and earned himself a callup to the Indians in September. He was a total disaster in five starts (2.284 WHIP, 8.87 ERA) for the Indians but he'll have a chance to win a rotation spot this spring. He needs some ironing out at Triple-A so expect a fair amount of wrinkles if he lands a rotation spot.
After a successful stint in Double-A Reading for much of the 2008 season, Carrasco, the Phillies' 20-year-old top prospect, was promoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in early-August and saw continued success. Over the course of the year, Carrasco went 9-9 in 25 starts and finished with a 3.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 155 strikeouts in 151.1 innings pitched. He'll be given a chance in spring training to compete for the No. 5 spot in Philadelphia’s starting rotation and given his strikeout potential and strong offensive support, could be a huge sleeper if he wins the job. For owners in particularly deep leagues, he’s probably worth stashing on your roster regardless of whether he heads north with the big league club.
Carrasco had his first taste of Double-A at age 20 in 2007. He held his own in Reading, but his command took a turn for the worse (49:46 K:BB ratio with Reading after a 53:22 mark at Clearwater). He has a low-90's fastball and a good changeup, while his curveball improved greatly in 2007. If he can right the ship with his command, a midseason callup is not out of the question. Even if he spends all season in the minors, Carrasco is shaping up to be a 22-year-old with an eye on the Phillies' 2009 Opening Day rotation.
Carrasco broke through in full-season ball in 2006, blowing through the Sally League and pitching in the All-Star Futures Game. He features a good pitcher's frame (6-3, 178 lbs.), a low-90s fastball and a good changeup. Carrasco's breaking ball is still a work in progress and his motion appears to be high maintenance, so give him another year or two before he surfaces in Philly.
Carrasco is a young righthander in the Phillies chain. He throws in the low 90s and has major league potential, although he stumbled in his first try at Class A in 2005. Carrasco will head back to A ball in 2006 and is at least two years from the majors.
More Fantasy News
Disastrous outing in K.C.
PCleveland Indians
April 13, 2019
Carrasco (1-2) took the loss Friday, coughing up six runs on six hits and a walk while recording only two outs -- one via strikeout -- as Cleveland fell 8-1 to the Royals.
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Strikes out 12
PCleveland Indians
April 6, 2019
Carrasco (1-1) struck out 12 and allowed two runs on six hits and one walk in a victory over the Blue Jays on Saturday.
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Struggles in season debut
PCleveland Indians
March 31, 2019
Carrasco (0-1) took the loss after surrendering six runs on 10 hits and a walk while striking out four over 4.1 innings Sunday against the Twins.
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Shaky in spring outing
PCleveland Indians
March 16, 2019
Carrasco covered 4.2 innings Friday in the Indians' 5-2 exhibition loss to the Rangers, surrendering three runs on five hits and no walks while striking out six.
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Extended through 2022
PCleveland Indians
December 6, 2018
The Indians signed Carrasco to a contract extension through 2022 on Thursday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
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