Madison Bumgarner
Madison Bumgarner
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Francisco Giants
Day-To-Day
Injury Side
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Bumgarner suffered a Grade 2 shoulder sprain and bruised ribs in a dirt bike accident in late April and missed nearly three months of the 2017 season. The results were strong for the lefty following his return -- he posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 second-half starts -- but the strikeouts were down and the homers were up for Bumgarner down the stretch. He allowed 15 homers and struck out 73 in his final 84 innings. The team context isn't great anymore, because while he pitches in a friendly home park, the San Francisco offense is questionable and the bullpen is shaky. Worse yet, he was hit on the hand by a comebacker in 2018 spring training and could miss up to two months as a result. Bumgarner will presumably return to something close to his old form once healthy, but it's a lengthy bench stash for a player whose skills were not quite at that elite level late last season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a five-year, $35 million contract extension with the Giants in April of 2013. Contract includes a $12 million club option and $1.5 million buyout for 2018.
Lifted for precautionary reasons
PSan Francisco Giants
Side
September 15, 2018
Bumgarner was lifted from Saturday's game against the Rockies with side tightness, Amy Gutierrez of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
ANALYSIS
This helps explain why Bumgarner was lifted after throwing just 64 pitches through six scoreless innings. Bumgarner apparently felt some tightness following an at-bat earlier in the game, and while manager Bruce Bochy said the southpaw could have continued, the skipper opted to play it safe. He's expected to make his next start on schedule, which will come on the road against the Cardinals.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .197 344 99 19 63 12 2 5
Since 2016vs Right .229 1516 351 96 319 75 5 51
2018vs Left .229 92 26 7 19 5 1 0
2018vs Right .232 406 72 34 84 20 2 13
2017vs Left .205 78 15 4 15 2 0 1
2017vs Right .245 372 86 16 86 23 2 16
2016vs Left .178 174 58 8 29 5 1 4
2016vs Right .220 738 193 46 149 32 1 22
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-41%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-73%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-4%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-37%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 2.21 0.99 228.1 15 11 0 8.8 2.2 0.7
Since 2016Away 3.77 1.20 226.0 10 13 0 9.0 2.3 1.5
2018Home 1.34 1.01 60.1 4 2 0 7.3 2.7 0.3
2018Away 5.02 1.45 57.1 2 4 0 7.7 3.6 1.7
2017Home 3.40 1.07 50.1 2 5 0 8.8 1.8 1.4
2017Away 3.26 1.10 60.2 2 4 0 7.7 1.5 1.3
2016Home 2.14 0.93 117.2 9 4 0 9.5 2.1 0.5
2016Away 3.39 1.12 109.0 6 5 0 10.5 2.1 1.6
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Stat Review
How does Madison Bumgarner compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.39
 
K/9
7.5
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
90.9 mph
 
ERA
3.14
 
WHIP
1.22
 
BABIP
.278
 
GB/FB
1.36
 
Strand %
78.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Coming into the season, Bumgarner was regarded as one of fantasy baseball's top arms and he once again lived up to expectations. The wood-chopping lefty posted a career-best ERA over a career-high 226.2 innings. He has defied the critics who thought he would break down after throwing 270 combined regular and postseason innings in 2014. Bumgarner just keeps adding to his regular-season innings total year-over-year while increasing his strikeout rate (to a career-high 10.0 K/9 in 2016). While his demeanor is that of a seasoned veteran, the Giants' ace will be just 27 years old entering the 2017 season, leaving the scary possibility that he could take yet another step forward.
Bumgarner came into the season with the most perceived risk of any of the game's top starters after logging a combined 270 innings during the Giants’ 2014 championship run. He shot a snot rocket at the critics and turned in his best season from a statistical standpoint. In a season where he was supposed to “break down,” Bumgarner set career-best marks in strikeouts (234), walks (39), and innings pitched (218.1). He doesn’t come with the flashy arsenal of Clayton Kershaw or Jake Arrieta; rather, he gets it done by pounding the strike zone with his low-to-mid 90s fastball/cutter combo, mixing in a slider 31.9 percent of the time. With the Giants missing the postseason in 2015, Bumgarner will be afforded a little more rest this offseason compared to last year. Either way, he proved the doubters wrong and should be treated as a top fantasy arm heading into the 2016 season.
Bumgarner's price is almost certainly headed sky-high at the 2015 draft table. After a regular season that included career highs in innings, strikeouts (rate and total), walks (rate and total) and wins, he was already rising higher into the ranks of the elite starters. During the postseason on the biggest stage, he posted a 1.03 ERA in 53 innings with a 7.5 K/BB ratio. However, lost in the celebration is the fact that he logged 270 innings while continuing to chuck his slider at a 34.9% clip. His heavy slider rates increase injury risk, and while few guys scream workhorse more than Bumgarner, no one is impervious. Adam Wainwright used to the hold the mantle as Mr. Durable Workhorse who would be a lock for 200-plus innings a year...until he went down with Tommy John surgery. This isn't a projection of injury for Bumgarner, but rather a call for caution when investing, as there is less risk within the top five.
Bumgarner put together a career year in 2013, getting his ERA under 3.00 for the first time as a full-time starter. He also experienced improvements in his K/9 (8.9) and HR/9 (0.7) from the year before, while keeping his walks (2.8 BB/9) in check. He only netted 13 wins for an offensively-challenged Giants team, but victories are almost impossible to predict on a yearly basis. Looking ahead, Bumgarner projects to throw 200-plus innings for the fourth consecutive season and should be one of the more reliable arms taken early off the board.
Bumgarner's 2012 numbers were very similar to the ones he put up in 2011 except for his improved luck on balls in play (.276) and his increased HR/FB rate (11.5 percent). His peripherals remained very strong (8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9), and his 9.0 percent swinging-strike rate was very similar to his 2011 rate (9.2 percent). Down the stretch, Bumgarner seemed to hit a wall as his average fastball velocity dropped just below 90 mph after September (91.3 mph for the season). The increased usage of his slider (39 percent) could be a concern in the coming year, but Bumgarner is capable of making a run at the NL ERA crown in 2013.
Bumgarner ended April with a 6.17 ERA and 1.757 WHIP last year, but he was one of baseball's best pitchers the rest of the season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.142 WHIP (and that's with him allowing eight runs while recording just one out during a June outing). Over the final four months of last season, Bumgarner recorded an incredible 145:24 K:BB ratio over 126.2 innings. His 3.10 xFIP ranked seventh-best in baseball. Bumgarner's fastball velocity is now all the way back, and his slider is one of the best pitches in the game, though it should be noted he threw it 32.4 percent of the time last year, which was the fourth-highest rate in MLB, so there's some concern there. Still, at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he appears to be a horse and hasn't yet shown any signs of arm trouble. Bumgarner is extremely difficult to homer against, and with plus command and a rising strikeout rate, he enters his third year in the league with massive upside.
After experiencing some success at the Triple-A level, Bumgarner was called up to San Francisco in late June and never looked back, posting a 3.3 K/BB ratio with a 3.00 ERA and 1.306 WHIP over 18 starts. He pitched far better on the road than at home, but that's likely an anomaly that won't continue into 2011. While still nowhere close to what it was when he came out of high school, Bumgarner's fastball velocity crept back up last year (averaged 91.3 mph), and he became a dominant pitcher down the stretch. In September and through the playoffs, he posted a fantastic 50:9 K:BB ratio over 50.2 innings, with a 1.54 ERA and a 1.101 WHIP. With a deceptive delivery, plus curveball and a changeup that's developing into a dominant pitch, Bumgarner has the potential to be a No. 2 starter (if not an ace) for years to come, and pitching in the NL West is always a plus for prospective fantasy owners. Bumgarner is someone to target in 2011.
After dominating Low-A as a 19-year-old in 2008, Bumgarner posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in Double-A last season, but his strikeout rate dropped significantly (from 10.45 K/9IP to 5.80 K/9IP). It’s hard to argue with a 20-year-old recording a 1.93 ERA in Double-A, especially since he also more than held his own in a brief audition with the Giants in September: 1.80 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, .229 BAA over 10.0 innings. However, his fastball velocity was noticeably lower, which is cause for concern moving forward. After frequently reaching the mid-to-upper 90s, Bumgarner averaged just 89.2 mph with his fastball with the Giants. He’s still one of the best prospects in baseball, but it’s a development worth watching. There’s a chance he opens 2010 as the team’s No. 5 starter, but he’s more likely to get more seasoning in the minors before eventually getting recalled to San Francisco.
Bumgarner was flat-out dominant in 2008, finishing Low-A Augusta with a 1.46 ERA and a 164:21 K:BB ratio over 141.2 innings. A 6-4, 215-pound lefty, Bumgarner possesses an overpowering fastball, and his secondary pitches are developing much quicker than originally anticipated. He’ll begin 2009 in either High-A or Double-A, and the Giants have been conservative with him thus far. Bumgarner won’t be up in San Francisco for a couple of years, but he’s easily one of baseball’s 10 best prospects.
The Giants selected Bumgarner out of high school with the No. 10 pick in last year's draft. Possessing one of the best arms in the draft, Bumgarner's heater can reach 94-95 mph with movement. However, his breaking ball and changeup are below average, and he will need considerable development time in the minors. The Giants have done well with similar pitchers, so this fits with their history. He's years away, but the southpaw has ace potential.
More Fantasy News
Emotions take over in loss
PSan Francisco Giants
September 10, 2018
Bumgarner (5-6) gave up five runs on four hits and a walk while striking out four over six innings in a loss to the Brewers on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard at Coors
PSan Francisco Giants
September 4, 2018
Bumgarner was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on eight hits while walking one and striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Dominant again in no-decision
PSan Francisco Giants
August 29, 2018
Bumgarner didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's 1-0 win over the Diamondbacks, firing seven shutout innings with five strikeouts against four hits and four walks.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates Mets for fifth win
PSan Francisco Giants
August 23, 2018
Bumgarner (5-5) tossed eight innings and earned the victory Thursday, allowing just one run on five hits (one home run) while striking out eight in the 3-1 win over the Mets.
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Hit hard by Reds
PSan Francisco Giants
August 19, 2018
Bumgarner (4-5) took the loss Saturday, coughing up six runs (five earned) on eight hits and two walks over six innings while striking out six as the Giants fell 7-1 to the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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