Madison Bumgarner
Madison Bumgarner
30-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Francisco Giants
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Bumgarner suffered a broken finger in spring training, resulting in a second consecutive abbreviated season after a long track record of durability. His 19.8% strikeout rate last season was his lowest since 2010 while his 7.8% walk rate was a career worst. The combination of those two, his K-BB%, was his worst this decade. More troubling is the fact that Bumgarner’s fastball, which was once a quality pitch for him, abandoned him last year. By run values, his fastball was nearly as bad for him last year as it was good for him in 2015. The velocity on the pitch has been consistent the past three seasons, but a 91-mph fastball is league average now. He still managed to finish with a solid ERA thanks to his ability to pitch out of trouble with his secondary pitches. The risk is more health than skill, because Bumgarner has shown he can still pitch reasonably well without the fastball. While no longer an ace, Bumgarner is still a good piece to have on your roster. Read Past Outlooks
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$The Giants exercised Bumgarner's $12 million club option for 2019. He'll be a free agent after the 2019 season.
Lines up for three more starts
PSan Francisco Giants
September 15, 2019
Bumgarner is expected to pitch on his normal four days' rest for the remainder of the season, Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Bumgarner is already locked in to make his next start Thursday in Boston, and the Giants apparently plan to take advantage of their final off day of the season Sept. 23 to have the lefty jump ahead of Jeff Samardzija in the pitching schedule. That would set Bumgarner up for a pair of home starts in the final week, with those turns coming Sept. 24 versus the Rockies and in the finale Sept. 29 versus the Dodgers.
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Pitching Stats
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Innings Per Game Average
6.11
Last 10 Games Average
6.30
Last 5 Games Average
6.20
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
What part of the game does Madison Bumgarner generally pitch?
 
 
 
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Extra
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-24%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .211 340 90 16 67 14 1 5
Since 2017vs Right .246 1450 307 86 328 76 9 53
2019vs Left .192 164 48 5 30 7 0 4
2019vs Right .254 625 139 34 146 31 5 23
2018vs Left .247 98 27 7 22 5 1 0
2018vs Right .236 453 82 36 96 22 2 14
2017vs Left .205 78 15 4 15 2 0 1
2017vs Right .245 372 86 16 86 23 2 16
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-67%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-4%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 2.60 0.99 232.1 12 10 0 8.3 1.9 0.9
Since 2017Away 4.50 1.31 204.0 7 14 0 8.0 2.4 1.5
2019Home 2.80 0.92 115.2 6 2 0 8.6 1.5 0.9
2019Away 5.06 1.36 80.0 3 6 0 8.6 2.3 1.7
2018Home 1.63 1.04 66.1 4 3 0 7.5 2.6 0.4
2018Away 4.97 1.45 63.1 2 4 0 7.7 3.4 1.6
2017Home 3.40 1.07 50.1 2 5 0 8.8 1.8 1.4
2017Away 3.26 1.10 60.2 2 4 0 7.7 1.5 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Madison Bumgarner compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.79
 
K/9
8.6
 
BB/9
1.8
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
91.4 mph
 
ERA
3.73
 
WHIP
1.10
 
BABIP
.290
 
GB/FB
0.97
 
Left On Base
70.5%
 
Exit Velocity
90.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
8.9%
 
Spin Rate
2421 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
42.1%
 
Swinging Strike
11.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Bumgarner suffered a Grade 2 shoulder sprain and bruised ribs in a dirt bike accident in late April and missed nearly three months of the 2017 season. The results were strong for the lefty following his return -- he posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 second-half starts -- but the strikeouts were down and the homers were up for Bumgarner down the stretch. He allowed 15 homers and struck out 73 in his final 84 innings. The team context isn't great anymore, because while he pitches in a friendly home park, the San Francisco offense is questionable and the bullpen is shaky. Worse yet, he was hit on the hand by a comebacker in 2018 spring training and could miss up to two months as a result. Bumgarner will presumably return to something close to his old form once healthy, but it's a lengthy bench stash for a player whose skills were not quite at that elite level late last season.
Coming into the season, Bumgarner was regarded as one of fantasy baseball's top arms and he once again lived up to expectations. The wood-chopping lefty posted a career-best ERA over a career-high 226.2 innings. He has defied the critics who thought he would break down after throwing 270 combined regular and postseason innings in 2014. Bumgarner just keeps adding to his regular-season innings total year-over-year while increasing his strikeout rate (to a career-high 10.0 K/9 in 2016). While his demeanor is that of a seasoned veteran, the Giants' ace will be just 27 years old entering the 2017 season, leaving the scary possibility that he could take yet another step forward.
Bumgarner came into the season with the most perceived risk of any of the game's top starters after logging a combined 270 innings during the Giants’ 2014 championship run. He shot a snot rocket at the critics and turned in his best season from a statistical standpoint. In a season where he was supposed to “break down,” Bumgarner set career-best marks in strikeouts (234), walks (39), and innings pitched (218.1). He doesn’t come with the flashy arsenal of Clayton Kershaw or Jake Arrieta; rather, he gets it done by pounding the strike zone with his low-to-mid 90s fastball/cutter combo, mixing in a slider 31.9 percent of the time. With the Giants missing the postseason in 2015, Bumgarner will be afforded a little more rest this offseason compared to last year. Either way, he proved the doubters wrong and should be treated as a top fantasy arm heading into the 2016 season.
Bumgarner's price is almost certainly headed sky-high at the 2015 draft table. After a regular season that included career highs in innings, strikeouts (rate and total), walks (rate and total) and wins, he was already rising higher into the ranks of the elite starters. During the postseason on the biggest stage, he posted a 1.03 ERA in 53 innings with a 7.5 K/BB ratio. However, lost in the celebration is the fact that he logged 270 innings while continuing to chuck his slider at a 34.9% clip. His heavy slider rates increase injury risk, and while few guys scream workhorse more than Bumgarner, no one is impervious. Adam Wainwright used to the hold the mantle as Mr. Durable Workhorse who would be a lock for 200-plus innings a year...until he went down with Tommy John surgery. This isn't a projection of injury for Bumgarner, but rather a call for caution when investing, as there is less risk within the top five.
Bumgarner put together a career year in 2013, getting his ERA under 3.00 for the first time as a full-time starter. He also experienced improvements in his K/9 (8.9) and HR/9 (0.7) from the year before, while keeping his walks (2.8 BB/9) in check. He only netted 13 wins for an offensively-challenged Giants team, but victories are almost impossible to predict on a yearly basis. Looking ahead, Bumgarner projects to throw 200-plus innings for the fourth consecutive season and should be one of the more reliable arms taken early off the board.
Bumgarner's 2012 numbers were very similar to the ones he put up in 2011 except for his improved luck on balls in play (.276) and his increased HR/FB rate (11.5 percent). His peripherals remained very strong (8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9), and his 9.0 percent swinging-strike rate was very similar to his 2011 rate (9.2 percent). Down the stretch, Bumgarner seemed to hit a wall as his average fastball velocity dropped just below 90 mph after September (91.3 mph for the season). The increased usage of his slider (39 percent) could be a concern in the coming year, but Bumgarner is capable of making a run at the NL ERA crown in 2013.
Bumgarner ended April with a 6.17 ERA and 1.757 WHIP last year, but he was one of baseball's best pitchers the rest of the season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.142 WHIP (and that's with him allowing eight runs while recording just one out during a June outing). Over the final four months of last season, Bumgarner recorded an incredible 145:24 K:BB ratio over 126.2 innings. His 3.10 xFIP ranked seventh-best in baseball. Bumgarner's fastball velocity is now all the way back, and his slider is one of the best pitches in the game, though it should be noted he threw it 32.4 percent of the time last year, which was the fourth-highest rate in MLB, so there's some concern there. Still, at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he appears to be a horse and hasn't yet shown any signs of arm trouble. Bumgarner is extremely difficult to homer against, and with plus command and a rising strikeout rate, he enters his third year in the league with massive upside.
After experiencing some success at the Triple-A level, Bumgarner was called up to San Francisco in late June and never looked back, posting a 3.3 K/BB ratio with a 3.00 ERA and 1.306 WHIP over 18 starts. He pitched far better on the road than at home, but that's likely an anomaly that won't continue into 2011. While still nowhere close to what it was when he came out of high school, Bumgarner's fastball velocity crept back up last year (averaged 91.3 mph), and he became a dominant pitcher down the stretch. In September and through the playoffs, he posted a fantastic 50:9 K:BB ratio over 50.2 innings, with a 1.54 ERA and a 1.101 WHIP. With a deceptive delivery, plus curveball and a changeup that's developing into a dominant pitch, Bumgarner has the potential to be a No. 2 starter (if not an ace) for years to come, and pitching in the NL West is always a plus for prospective fantasy owners. Bumgarner is someone to target in 2011.
After dominating Low-A as a 19-year-old in 2008, Bumgarner posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in Double-A last season, but his strikeout rate dropped significantly (from 10.45 K/9IP to 5.80 K/9IP). It’s hard to argue with a 20-year-old recording a 1.93 ERA in Double-A, especially since he also more than held his own in a brief audition with the Giants in September: 1.80 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, .229 BAA over 10.0 innings. However, his fastball velocity was noticeably lower, which is cause for concern moving forward. After frequently reaching the mid-to-upper 90s, Bumgarner averaged just 89.2 mph with his fastball with the Giants. He’s still one of the best prospects in baseball, but it’s a development worth watching. There’s a chance he opens 2010 as the team’s No. 5 starter, but he’s more likely to get more seasoning in the minors before eventually getting recalled to San Francisco.
Bumgarner was flat-out dominant in 2008, finishing Low-A Augusta with a 1.46 ERA and a 164:21 K:BB ratio over 141.2 innings. A 6-4, 215-pound lefty, Bumgarner possesses an overpowering fastball, and his secondary pitches are developing much quicker than originally anticipated. He’ll begin 2009 in either High-A or Double-A, and the Giants have been conservative with him thus far. Bumgarner won’t be up in San Francisco for a couple of years, but he’s easily one of baseball’s 10 best prospects.
The Giants selected Bumgarner out of high school with the No. 10 pick in last year's draft. Possessing one of the best arms in the draft, Bumgarner's heater can reach 94-95 mph with movement. However, his breaking ball and changeup are below average, and he will need considerable development time in the minors. The Giants have done well with similar pitchers, so this fits with their history. He's years away, but the southpaw has ace potential.
More Fantasy News
Fires 20th quality start
PSan Francisco Giants
September 15, 2019
Bumgarner didn't factor into the decision in Saturday's 4-2 loss to the Marlins, giving up two runs on four hits over seven innings while striking out three.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp in no-decision
PSan Francisco Giants
September 9, 2019
Bumgarner threw seven innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Monday, giving up two earned runs on six hits, striking out five and walking two as the Giants eventually fell 6-4.
ANALYSIS
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Surrenders six earned runs
PSan Francisco Giants
September 4, 2019
Bumgarner allowed six earned runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out two across five innings Wednesday against the Cardinals. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Secures ninth victory
PSan Francisco Giants
August 30, 2019
Bumgarner (9-8) allowed one run on four hits and two walks while striking out nine over seven innings, earning the win in Friday's 8-3 win over the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Takes no-decision Saturday
PSan Francisco Giants
August 24, 2019
Bumgarner allowed two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out five over five innings in a no-decision versus the Athletics on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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