Alex Colome

Colome recorded double-digit saves for the fifth straight season, shutting the door successfully in 12 of his 13 opportunities. He did a remarkable job keeping runs off the board, allowing just three (two earned) in 22.1 innings to finish with a 0.81 ERA. He benefited from plenty of good luck to get to that number, however, as seen in his .200 BABIP, 86.4% strand rate and 0.0% HR/FB rate. His 4.26 xFIP paints a far more pessimistic picture, though it's worth noting that he's outperformed his xFIP by over a run over the course of his eight-year career. There are still reasons to worry, however. While he's never been a high strikeout guy, seeing his K% plummet from 22.1% to 17.8% is concerning, and he lost a tick of velocity on his cutter. He made up for those things with a career-high 52.4% groundball rate, but it's certainly possible his non-traditional closer profile collapses in his age-32 season.

The easiest path to saves is keeping the role. In 2018, Colome was traded from Tampa Bay to Seattle and moved from closer to setup man in front of Edwin Diaz. At the time of the deal, he had 11 saves and he finished 2018 with 12 saves. The trade to Chicago put him back in the closer role, and he picked up where he left off in Tampa Bay, grabbing 30 saves with solid ratios and an average strikeout rate for a reliever. He was 30-for-33 in save opportunities in 2019 as mostly a one-pitch guy who now leans heavily on his above-average cutter. The best closers have two good pitches, but if they have one really good one like Colome does, they just throw the hell out of it and can still succeed. The lower strikeout rate and the likelihood of Colome being traded in his final year before free agency hold down his value a bit, but you could still get 20 saves before a July trade.

A move out of Tampa Bay seemed likely for Colome in 2018 after the Rays shopped him around last winter, and indeed a trade materialized with the Rays finding a trade partner in the Mariners by late May. After he racked up 11 saves over the first two months, Colome got just one more over the remainder of the season as M's closer Edwin Diaz turned in a historic season at the back end for Seattle and kept Colome confined to setup duty. The skills bounced back considerably -- Colome's K-BB% rebounded from 12.5% in 2017 to 18.1% as his first-pitch strike and swinging-strike rates both improved. He continued to pour his fastball in at 95 mph on average. It looks like 2016 will forever be the outlier in terms of ratios, but following a November trade to the White Sox, Colome may get a chance to close again. He will have to beat out Kelvin Herrera for the job.

The Rays’ penchant last season for playing closely contested games worked to the benefit of Colome, who converted an MLB-high 47 saves in 53 chances. However, the 29-year-old wasn’t nearly as effective during his second season as the Rays’ closer compared to his first year as the team’s ninth-inning man. Colome saw his strikeout and walk rates dip in undesirable directions, with his K/BB rate nearly getting cut in half. Unsurprisingly, the weakened control resulted in his ERA jumping more than a full run and his WHIP ticking up to 1.20, leaving Colome more dependent on the lofty save total for his fantasy utility than owners anticipated. A 4.37 xFIP suggests that Colome was fortunate his ERA wasn’t more of an eyesore, and since the downturn in performance was accompanied by velocity declines in all of his pitches, a bounceback isn’t a given. Perhaps in recognition of Colome’s value plunging further, the Rays shopped him over the winter, an indication that he’s not guaranteed to stick around throughout the season.

Colome was one of the few pleasant stories for the Rays in 2016 following his sudden induction into the closer's role after Brad Boxberger suffered an abdominal injury in spring training. The 27-year-old impressively notched 37 saves in 40 chances, successfully converting 21 consecutive save chances to begin the campaign. Colome's body of work firmly entrenched Boxberger in a setup role upon his eventual return, and the same pecking order will apply entering next spring. Colome posted elite metrics in the categories of K/9 (11.3) and K/BB (4.73), while regularly firing a mid-90s fastball. Control was certainly another strong point, as the right-hander generated a solid 2.4 BB/9 and 1.02 WHIP. His upside may only be capped by the Rays' inability to frequently enter the late innings with leads to protect, but even a modest improvement overall could vault Colome into the elite 45-plus save range in 2017.

Colome has followed a very familiar path to this point in his career. He has a live arm, which pushed the Rays to use him as a starter, but he struggled with command and was hit hard while struggling to work deep into games. Upon moving to the bullpen, he became completely dominant to the point of raising questions about why he was ever used as a starter. That’s Colome in a nutshell. He has the changeup that many others with that story lack, but he doesn’t have a great third pitch and the lack of command hurts him as well. His fastball was better in relief and the results speak for themselves. He had a 1.41 WHIP and a 15 percent strikeout rate as a starter, and a 1.13 WHIP with a 27 percent strikeout rate as a reliever. It is rumored that the Rays have both Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee on the market to see what they can bring back. If either one goes, Colome goes right into the eighth-inning role with the potential to be the closer at some time in 2016.

The Rays traded away Jeremy Hellickson this offseason, leaving a gap in the rotation where Colome or Nate Karns could fill in until Matt Moore is back from his Tommy John surgery. Colome, a 6-foot-2 righty, profiles as the more exciting option, as he has a 1.30 ERA in six big league starts (34.2 innings). That is a small sample size, and his 25:14 K:BB ratio in those starts is disconcerting, but the early returns need to be acknowledged. If he had a better command profile, there would be no doubt about Colome's ability to stick in a rotation. He has a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s, with three secondary offerings that all have above-average potential. In his age-26 season, Colome has a chance to establish himself as a mid-rotation arm, and if that happens, the Rays should be able to find a way to keep him in the mix, even after Moore returns.

Colome put together a solid season with Triple-A Durham, posting a 3.07 ERA while averaging 9.2 K/9 over 14 starts. He had a few successful spot starts with the Rays, but his season ended after the promotion when he was placed on the disabled list with an elbow strain. He features a big fastball with solid movement that he uses to induce groundballs and his secondary pitches are developing. Injuries have limited him to fewer than 20 starts in both of the last two seasons. The Rays are expected to have a crowded rotation again in 2014, so he could begin the season with Durham if he does not win a spot in the spring, but he could convert to the bullpen in the future.

Colome missed about a month in the early part of the season with an oblique injury before returning strong for Double-A Montgomery. In 14 starts he posted an 8-3 record with a 3.48 ERA and averaged 9.0 K/9. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Durham in August, where made three starts before a shoulder injury shut him down early. He is still a very intriguing prospect for the Rays given his electric fastball paired with a solid curveball. Since he's currently a starter on a team stocked with pitching talent, he will likely be stuck at Triple-A in 2013 for the whole season, but could be used to help the Rays' bullpen in September or earlier if there are injuries on the pitching staff.

Colome started the season at High-A Charlotte where he had a respectable 3.58 ERA and a 7.84 K/9IP. As should be expected, he struggled more after a promotion in late July to Double-A Montgomery. His strikeout rate dropped by more than 2.0 K/9IP while his walk rate increased by more than 1.0 BB/9IP. Colome has a sizzling fastball that can work in the upper-90s and is developing a curveball to complement the heater. He'll likely begin at Double-A Montgomery and work on his command issues with a likely mid-to-late season promotion to Durham if he continues his development. Look for him to enter the Rays pitching picture some time in 2013 given their depth.

Colome fared well during a 2010 campaign spent mostly at Low-A Bowling Green. As evidenced by the strikeout rate (9.3 K/9IP), he has good stuff, but the issue to this point has been consistently controlling it. While the ceiling here is high, he's far from a finished product and it's unlikely that he'll advance past Double-A this season. Beyond that, the Rays' deep farm system will ensure that he gets the necessary time to develop. Consider him worthy of a spot in deeper keeper leagues, but Colome may not get a chance to start for the Rays until 2013.