Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

27-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Boston Red Sox
2024 Fantasy Outlook
In large part due to working with Dustin Pedroia in the spring, Duran displayed a positive change in attitude, not to mention a reworked swing. Even so, Duran opened the season with Triple-A Worcester before being called up in early April to add outfield depth following the wrist injury to Adam Duvall. Duran turned out to be more than depth as he became the regular center fielder, demonstrating much more hustle. Unfortunately, Duran was limited to only 102 games as he missed almost a quarter of the season after season-ending surgery on his left big toe. The league had begun to adjust, so the lost time makes it harder to evaluate the extent of Duran's break out. Through July 23, he batted .317/.367/.514, but afterwards, he posted a .219/.269/.370 line. Duran is expected to be ready for spring training and should be a regular in the outfield. There is no doubting his stolen base prowess, but his power and ability to get on base are unclear. He'll probably land closer to the early version, but don't expect a repeat of his pre-All-Star break production. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#151
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $760,000 contract with the Red Sox in March of 2024.
Dropped to second in order
OFBoston Red Sox
July 13, 2024
Duran batted second and went 0-for-4 in Friday's 6-1 loss to Kansas City.
ANALYSIS
Red Sox manager Alex Cora, cognizant of Boston's struggles against left-handers, moved the righty-hitting Rob Refsnyder to leadoff against Cole Ragans. While Refsnyder got on base twice against Ragans, the left-hander stifled the rest of Boston's lineup, the second time in three games the Red Sox were quelled by a southpaw. Duran, who is batting .275/.336/.468 overall, is slashing .242/.313/.300 against lefties.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
67
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
24
2
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+31%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+39%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+12%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+54%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .632 229 21 2 22 9 .252 .311 .320
Since 2022vs Right .827 795 110 19 76 44 .280 .336 .491
2024vs Left .646 138 14 1 11 6 .260 .328 .317
2024vs Right .895 302 48 9 30 16 .293 .348 .547
2023vs Left .749 49 4 1 6 2 .289 .327 .422
2023vs Right .841 312 42 7 34 22 .296 .349 .491
2022vs Left .449 42 3 0 5 1 .184 .238 .211
2022vs Right .690 181 20 3 12 6 .229 .293 .398
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+16%
OPS at Home
2024
 
 
+20%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+22%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .840 525 70 10 54 22 .287 .352 .487
Since 2022Away .727 499 61 11 44 31 .260 .307 .419
2024Home .891 222 31 4 22 5 .312 .374 .518
2024Away .744 218 31 6 19 17 .255 .309 .435
2023Home .910 182 23 5 26 14 .315 .379 .531
2023Away .748 179 23 3 14 10 .276 .313 .435
2022Home .640 121 16 1 6 3 .202 .273 .367
2022Away .652 102 7 2 11 4 .242 .294 .358
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Stat Review
How does Jarren Duran compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.35
 
BB Rate
7.7%
 
K Rate
22.3%
 
BABIP
.352
 
ISO
.193
 
AVG
.284
 
OBP
.342
 
SLG
.477
 
OPS
.820
 
wOBA
.355
 
Exit Velocity
91.3 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
35.4%
 
Barrels/PA
5.9%
 
Expected BA
.276
 
Expected SLG
.460
 
Sprint Speed
26.9 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
47.0%
 
Line Drive %
18.7%
 
Fly Ball %
34.3%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
Two years ago, Duran was quite an interesting prospect, but his star has fallen far after a pair of unsuccessful attempts to establish himself at the big-league level. His .645 OPS in 58 games last season at least represented a step up from his .578 OPS in 33 games the year prior, but it was nowhere near good enough for a player whose speed hasn't translated into even average defense in center field. Duran can't claim to have gotten particularly unlucky, as his .219 xBA was a near match for his actual .221 batting average. His strikeout rate fell by over seven points compared to his major-league debut but still sat at 28.3%, while his 7.7% barrel rate was merely average. A modest step forward on both sides of the ball could turn Duran into a competent big-league regular, but he's now 26 years old, so a modest step may be as much as it's fair to expect. If he earns a role, his speed should help fantasy teams, but his performance suggests that even a bench spot isn't a lock.
The time to cash out Duran in dynasty leagues was in early July, prior to his MLB debut, when some were valuing him as a top-50 prospect. While his value has fallen since then, there's still an argument for getting what you can for him this winter. His .258/.357/.516 slash line at Triple-A looks fine for a hitter with his combination of above-average raw power and plus-plus speed, but Duran's 23.3 K% was a poor mark at that level for a player who turned 25 in September. Given the gap between Triple-A pitching and major-league pitching, it should not have come as a surprise that he went on to log a 35.7 K% and 3.6 BB% in his first 112 MLB plate appearances. In addition to significant hit tool concerns, Duran's outfield defense is quite poor, so it's difficult to see a contending team like the Red Sox gifting him playing time in the short term. They will very likely bring in one, if not two superior outfielders after the lockout, and even players of Christian Arroyo's caliber could get playing time over Duran barring some major improvements in the field or at the plate.
Few teams were better at leaking impressive footage of their prospects at the alternate training site than the Red Sox, and Duran had his share of highlights that captured burgeoning power. His 70-grade speed is the main reason he is a prospect of note for dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, he's a shaky defender in center field, even with that speed, so he needs to hit. He used to be a slash-and-dash leadoff type, but after overhauling his swing, he is now able to launch balls out to the pull side. Duran was a strong contact hitter in the lower levels, but his new swing requires more precise timing, which puts his eventual batting averages into question. He performed poorly as an age-appropriate hitter at Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League in 2019, and now that he is entering his age-24 season, it's time for him to produce at the plate in games against pitchers from outside the organization.
More Fantasy News
Productive from top of order
OFBoston Red Sox
July 11, 2024
Duran went 3-for-5 with a stolen base in Wednesday's 5-2 loss to the A's.
ANALYSIS
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Homers, steals in win
OFBoston Red Sox
July 2, 2024
Duran went 1-for-4 with a solo home run and a stolen base in Tuesday's 8-3 win over the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Homers again in win
OFBoston Red Sox
June 30, 2024
Duran went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Sunday's 4-1 win over the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Homers in loss
OFBoston Red Sox
June 30, 2024
Duran went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in Saturday's 11-1 loss to the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Three more hits, including walk-off
OFBoston Red Sox
June 25, 2024
Duran went 3-for-5 with a double, an RBI and two runs scored in Monday's 7-6 walk-off win over the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
San Diego has inquired
OFBoston Red Sox
February 9, 2024
The Padres have discussed a possible Duran trade with the Red Sox, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
Boston's willingness to trade Duran is unclear, but if there's a chance he's dealt, San Diego certainly makes sense as a landing spot. The Padres are desperately looking for outfield help and would prefer it be a left-handed hitter. Duran is coming off a mini-breakout in 2023 and is under team control through 2028, so the Padres would have to give up a lot in return.
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