Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

26-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Boston Red Sox
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Two years ago, Duran was quite an interesting prospect, but his star has fallen far after a pair of unsuccessful attempts to establish himself at the big-league level. His .645 OPS in 58 games last season at least represented a step up from his .578 OPS in 33 games the year prior, but it was nowhere near good enough for a player whose speed hasn't translated into even average defense in center field. Duran can't claim to have gotten particularly unlucky, as his .219 xBA was a near match for his actual .221 batting average. His strikeout rate fell by over seven points compared to his major-league debut but still sat at 28.3%, while his 7.7% barrel rate was merely average. A modest step forward on both sides of the ball could turn Duran into a competent big-league regular, but he's now 26 years old, so a modest step may be as much as it's fair to expect. If he earns a role, his speed should help fantasy teams, but his performance suggests that even a bench spot isn't a lock. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#573
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Red Sox in July of 2021.
Roster status uncertain
OFBoston Red Sox
March 5, 2023
Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters Sunday that the team is not ready to make a decision on where Duran will open the season, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
"Like I told [Duran] yesterday, don't worry about stuff like that," Cora said. "We're not going to worry about that right now. We'll figure that out towards the end of the month where we're at." If Duran does make the roster, it's likely as a backup, so the debate is whether to get him regular at-bats in Triple-A with Worcester or be a backup with the Red Sox. While there's still a chance for long-term success, Duran can safely be ignored in redraft leagues regardless of roster status.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
35
4
9
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
4
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+50%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+54%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+42%
OPS vs RHP
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .445 70 5 0 7 1 .185 .214 .231
Since 2020vs Right .669 265 35 5 20 8 .228 .283 .386
2022vs Left .449 42 3 0 5 1 .184 .238 .211
2022vs Right .690 181 20 3 12 6 .229 .293 .398
2021vs Left .438 28 2 0 2 0 .185 .179 .259
2021vs Right .624 84 15 2 8 2 .225 .262 .363
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
2020
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .618 177 28 1 11 3 .204 .260 .358
Since 2020Away .627 158 12 4 16 6 .235 .278 .349
2022Home .640 121 16 1 6 3 .202 .273 .367
2022Away .652 102 7 2 11 4 .242 .294 .358
2021Home .572 56 12 0 5 0 .208 .232 .340
2021Away .583 56 5 2 5 2 .222 .250 .333
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Jarren Duran compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.22
 
BB Rate
6.3%
 
K Rate
28.3%
 
BABIP
.302
 
ISO
.142
 
AVG
.221
 
OBP
.283
 
SLG
.363
 
OPS
.645
 
wOBA
.286
 
Exit Velocity
89.3 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
27.5%
 
Barrels/PA
4.9%
 
Expected BA
.219
 
Expected SLG
.353
 
Sprint Speed
27.1 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
50.7%
 
Line Drive %
15.4%
 
Fly Ball %
33.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
The time to cash out Duran in dynasty leagues was in early July, prior to his MLB debut, when some were valuing him as a top-50 prospect. While his value has fallen since then, there's still an argument for getting what you can for him this winter. His .258/.357/.516 slash line at Triple-A looks fine for a hitter with his combination of above-average raw power and plus-plus speed, but Duran's 23.3 K% was a poor mark at that level for a player who turned 25 in September. Given the gap between Triple-A pitching and major-league pitching, it should not have come as a surprise that he went on to log a 35.7 K% and 3.6 BB% in his first 112 MLB plate appearances. In addition to significant hit tool concerns, Duran's outfield defense is quite poor, so it's difficult to see a contending team like the Red Sox gifting him playing time in the short term. They will very likely bring in one, if not two superior outfielders after the lockout, and even players of Christian Arroyo's caliber could get playing time over Duran barring some major improvements in the field or at the plate.
Few teams were better at leaking impressive footage of their prospects at the alternate training site than the Red Sox, and Duran had his share of highlights that captured burgeoning power. His 70-grade speed is the main reason he is a prospect of note for dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, he's a shaky defender in center field, even with that speed, so he needs to hit. He used to be a slash-and-dash leadoff type, but after overhauling his swing, he is now able to launch balls out to the pull side. Duran was a strong contact hitter in the lower levels, but his new swing requires more precise timing, which puts his eventual batting averages into question. He performed poorly as an age-appropriate hitter at Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League in 2019, and now that he is entering his age-24 season, it's time for him to produce at the plate in games against pitchers from outside the organization.
More Fantasy News
Sent back down
OFBoston Red Sox
October 1, 2022
Duran was optioned to Triple-A Worcester on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Recalled from Triple-A
OFBoston Red Sox
September 30, 2022
Duran was recalled from Triple-A Worcester on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Sent back to Triple-A
OFBoston Red Sox
August 27, 2022
Duran was optioned to Triple-A Worcester on Saturday, Chris Cotillo of The Springfield Republican reports.
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Gets look in right field
OFBoston Red Sox
August 21, 2022
Duran started in right field and went 1-for-4 in Saturday's 4-3 win over Baltimore.
ANALYSIS
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On bench, time as regular likely up
OFBoston Red Sox
August 17, 2022
Duran is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game in Pittsburgh, Bill Koch of The Providence Journal reports.
ANALYSIS
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