Jon Gray

Gray's ERA estimators had been quite consistent over the past five seasons, but he took a significant step back over a smaller sample in 2020 with a 5.68 xFIP and 5.58 SIERA. He missed the final month of the season due to right shoulder inflammation, and the injury could have helped contribute to some of his struggles. His hard-hit rate has crept up over the past two seasons, and he had 42.4% of his batted balls hit above 95 mph in 2020, which is especially concerning at Coors Field. His strikeout rate also plummeted to a career-worst 12.6 K%, the first time the mark fell below 20%. Gray had been slightly better at home than he had been on the road recently, but he struggled mightily in the altitude in 2020, posting an 8.39 ERA at home versus a 3.77 ERA on the road. His injury and a smaller sample inflated his numbers in 2020, but the 29-year-old is a much riskier fantasy option than he's been in the past.

Depending on what ERA estimator you favor, Gray has either been the same guy the past several years or the same guy with 2019 being a slight step backwards. Over his five-year career, Gray's xFIP has ranged from 3.45-3.89 while his SIERA has been 3.68-4.35. In both instances, the highest mark was last season, despite Gray's actual 3.89 ERA. Thus is the variability of ERA, especially in Coors Field. The three major accessible estimators -- FIP, xFIP and SIERA -- peg Gray's expected career ERA at 3.77, 3.62, 3.97. In context, Gray is a true-talent 3.30 guy saddled with working half his games at altitude. Aside from the variability, Gray's durability is a concern with just one season of 30 starts. The temptation is to draft him for strikeouts and stream on the road, but Gray's home splits are better than on the road. Some avoid Coors Field at all costs, others welcome the hefty discount. Take your pick.

Gray came out after the season to state his 2018 struggles were due to unspecified health issues that caused him to lose 20 pounds and also some of his velocity. He had a 5.44 ERA in the first half despite a strong 21.6 K-BB%. The struggles earned him a midseason demotion, and when he returned, his ERA dropped nearly a full run, but his K-BB dropped to 11.8%. Gray's issues were exacerbated when runners were on base as the league hit .297/.379/.506 against him when anyone was on base compared to a .242/.286/.417 line with the bases empty. That was not the case in 2017 when the league hit .230/.302/.365 against Gray with runners on base. A simple return to previous levels of health and velocity should get him back on the right track as the underlying skills are there. The struggles while pitching with runners on base were simply too much to overcome in 2018. It is a fixable issue, and the Coors Field factor should keep his price down.

The initial response to Gray is that we must ding him because he pitches in Colorado. What if you knew that over the past two seasons, he has held the league to a .238 average in Coors and has a 3.89 ERA there? Gray has now pitched two seasons in Colorado with at least 100 innings of work and his overall home run rate has been below 1.0 HR/9 in each season. That speaks to the quality of his stuff and how tough he is to square up when he is commanding all of his pitches. The addition of a better curveball in 2017 helped him take another step forward, but the next step is avoiding the disabled list as he has yet to make 30 starts in a season (20 last season). Rostering Gray is not as risky as is the case with most Colorado pitchers. He could come at a bargain in mixed leagues due to his zip code.

In his first full season in the big league rotation, Gray took strides toward becoming the frontline arm the Rockies were hoping for when they selected him with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He improved on many fronts, raising his K/9 to an outstanding 9.9, increasing his GB/FB ratio to 1.65 and upping the average velocity of his fastball above 95 mph. Walk rate was one of the few areas that saw a slight regression, as his BB/9 increased ever so slightly to 3.2. His ERA, although improved from 2015, still sat at a less than desirable 4.61, although his 3.60 FIP suggests luck wasn't on his side. All in all, 2016 was a step forward for Gray, and at only 24 years old, he should continue to progress as he works toward being the top gun in the Rockies rotation. Coors Field will never be his friend, but he was actually better at home (3.16 FIP) than on the road (4.05 FIP) last season, suggesting that he is capable of handling the thin Rocky Mountain air.

The default with Colorado pitchers is to look at the home/road splits and try to ascertain how much Coors Field impacted his numbers. Occam's Razor suggests the most straightforward answer, so we look at the splits and see an 8.27 ERA at home (21 innings) and a 2.70 ERA on the road (20 innings) in near-equal samples. His fastball and changeup were obliterated at home to the tune of a combined 1.158 OPS in 86 plate appearances, versus a .678 OPS in 59 plate appearances on the road. The necessary caveats apply to a 41-inning sample, but it's not surprising that his stuff is less effective in Denver. It's just always going to be a problem for Colorado pitchers. We'll get seasons here and there, but long-term fantasy relevance at Coors Field seems impossible. It's not just the thin air, either, honestly it's usually more about the enormous outfield. Throw in the fact that he is slated to miss a month or more with a strained abdominal muscle to start the season, and Gray is best left untouched in standard leagues, until he is able to return and demonstrate his health. At that point he could be a useful streaming option in road starts.

Though their battered rotation presented several openings by midseason, the Rockies resisted the temptation to call up Gray and begin his service clock in the midst of a non-contending year. Gray likely would have forced the Rockies’ hand if he dominated in his first full season in the minors, but he was merely only very good at Double-A Tulsa, submitting a 3.91 ERA and 14.2 K%-BB% over 124.1 innings. It won’t preclude him from competing for an Opening Day starting gig with the Rockies this spring, but the organization probably prefers to give him a little more time in the minors to raise his performance before joining the big club later in the season and assuming his destiny as an anchor in their rotation. Having Coors Field as his eventual home park dampens Gray’s appeal more than most prospects of his caliber because of the expected ERA and WHIP hits, but the right-hander probably has a rosier fantasy outlook than the Rockies’ other highly-touted hurler, Eddie Butler, on the basis of his stronger strikeout rates.

After he was drafted third overall in the first-year player draft in June, Gray immediately made a splash on the professional stage. He was quickly advanced through rookie ball and proceeded to breeze through his five California League starts, going 4-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 36:6 K:BB ratio over 24 innings. With starting pitching being a sore spot for the organization practically since its inception, the Rockies have made it known they intend to fast-track Gray’s development, making a deployment to Double-A Tulsa or Triple-A Colorado Springs out of spring training a distinct possibility for the ascendant right-hander. At 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Gray possesses the ideal frame for a power pitcher and the repertoire to match. With a fastball that routinely touches the upper-90s to go along with his plus-slider, Gray projects as a high-volume strikeout artist at the next level and he should already attract attention in dynasty formats.