Jose Berrios

Jose Berrios

30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Berrios put together an impressive bounce-back campaign, shaving more than a run and a half off his ERA after he finished with the worst ERA among qualified starters in 2022. He bumped his strikeout rate back up to 23.5% -- modest, but a big improvement on the previous year and much more in line with his career norms. Berrios offers up four pitches to opposing hitters -- sinker, slurve, four-seamer, changeup -- and he's willing to challenge within the zone even if he doesn't win every battle. It was nice to see that his struggles in 2022 didn't affect his confidence too much, as his walk rate remained low at 6.6%. We've seen what the downside looks like with Berrios, but he has eight years of starting experience at this point and his track record is that of a viable mid-rotation starter. There may still be a buy-low window in fantasy as the memory of his disastrous 2022 lingers. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#165
ADP
$Signed a seven-year, $131 million contract extension with the Blue Jays in November of 2021. Contract includes two-year, $48 million player option for 2027 and 2028.
Hit hard Saturday
PToronto Blue Jays
June 22, 2024
Berrios (6-6) allowed five runs on six hits and one walk while striking out three over five innings to take the loss Saturday versus the Guardians.
ANALYSIS
The Guardians aren't known for power, but they tagged Berrios with three home runs -- Bo Naylor, Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan all took the right-hander deep. With seven homers allowed over his last four starts, Berrios' trouble with the long ball is becoming a concern. He's given up 14 runs across 22.2 innings in that span and now has a 3.43 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 68:23 K:BB through 97 innings across 16 starts this season. He's projected to make his next start at home in a difficult matchup versus the Yankees.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
93
Last 10 Games
95
Last 5 Games
97
How many pitches does Jose Berrios generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Jose Berrios generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
2024
 
 
-29%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .265 1009 202 71 243 36 5 47
Since 2022vs Right .255 913 199 49 216 40 0 24
2024vs Left .205 206 37 16 38 2 2 11
2024vs Right .288 182 31 7 49 7 0 6
2023vs Left .261 406 97 31 97 18 2 16
2023vs Right .220 375 87 21 76 15 0 9
2022vs Left .298 397 68 24 108 16 1 20
2022vs Right .276 356 81 21 91 18 0 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-46%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-17%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.49 1.21 227.0 17 9 0 8.4 2.2 1.1
Since 2022Away 4.89 1.32 231.2 12 16 0 7.3 2.5 1.7
2024Home 2.36 1.05 45.2 4 1 0 5.9 1.8 0.8
2024Away 4.38 1.21 51.1 2 5 0 6.7 2.5 2.3
2023Home 3.30 1.17 90.0 6 6 0 9.3 2.3 1.2
2023Away 3.97 1.20 99.2 5 6 0 8.2 2.6 1.2
2022Home 4.24 1.32 91.1 7 2 0 8.8 2.3 1.1
2022Away 6.36 1.52 80.2 5 5 0 6.7 2.5 2.0
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Stat Review
How does Jose Berrios compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.96
 
K/9
6.3
 
BB/9
2.1
 
HR/9
1.6
 
Fastball
93.7 mph
 
ERA
3.43
 
WHIP
1.13
 
BABIP
.254
 
GB/FB
1.30
 
Left On Base
84.7%
 
Exit Velocity
82.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.4%
 
Spin Rate
2057 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
28.3%
 
Swinging Strike
8.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Strong month recognized
PToronto Blue Jays
May 3, 2024
Berrios was named the American League Pitcher of the Month for March/April on Friday.
ANALYSIS
The honor is well deserved for the 29-year-old right-hander, who made seven starts and posted a 1.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 31:13 K:BB across 43.2 innings. Berrios also has a 4-2 record, which puts him well on pace to shatter the career high of 14 wins he set in both 2017 and 2019.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Considering Berrios was a top-75 pick in most leagues, he goes down as one of the biggest busts of the season. Few predicted a sizable step forward, but even fewer predicted the kind of collapse we saw as Berrios had the worst ERA and WHIP among qualified starters. Despite that, he still had a winning record at 12-7 which speaks to the talent around him in Toronto. The right-hander's strikeout rate plummeted as he allowed a ton of contact in the zone, and while the estimators suggest he was a little unlucky on account of a high BABIP, Berrios mostly deserved his batted-ball luck. His HardHit% and xwOBACON marks ranked in the bottom 15% of the league, per Statcast, not to mention he allowed 29 homers (fourth most in MLB). After his first partial season with the team in 2021, the Blue Jays bet big on Berrios in the form of a seven-year, $131 million contract extension. They will give him a long leash to get back to the form he showed over the five seasons prior to 2022.
While it may not have been the breakthrough season some expected, Berrios did not disappoint. He added a tick to his K% while walking a career low 5.8%, resulting in a personal best 20.4% K-BB%. Berrios amassed 192 innings, tied for sixth most in MLB. In fact, his 108 games started since 2018 is tied for second highest in the league. The righty maintained the velocity gained in 2020, boding well for sustaining an elevated K%. Berrios was acquired by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, and he impressed enough to rewarded with a seven-year deal. Berrios doesn't have the flashy allure of other starting pitchers, but durability and reliability are fantasy assets. There likely isn't another level, and a full season in the AL East could put a dent in his numbers, but Berrios should be able to withstand the heat and post low-level ace numbers.
Berrios had a similar season at the top of Minnesota's rotation to his two prior All-Star years with some skills growth. Berrios increased his average fastball velocity to a career-high 94.3 mph and a career-high 9.7 K/9. His gains were somewhat offset by a 3.7 BB/9, his worst rate since his struggles in his rookie season. In the opposite of his two prior seasons, he started slow (5.92 ERA over his first five starts) and finished strong (2.79 ERA over his final seven starts). Berrios is able to keep hitters off balance with an excellent curve ball that helped him generate a swinging strike rate of 11.6%, which was 20th in MLB among qualified pitchers. If he can keep the walks in check and avoid any prolonged slumps, he and Kenta Maeda will form a strong 1-2 at the top of the Minnesota rotation.
Berrios had a career-best 3.68 ERA and made his second consecutive All-Star team, but faded in the second half for a second consecutive season. Berrios had a 3.00 ERA before the All-Star break, and 4.64 ERA in the second half. He had a 5.83 ERA over his last eight starts with a 1.55 HR/9 and appeared on fumes heading into the playoffs. His late-season fade belies his durability, as he topped 200 innings for the first time (15th in IP) and has never spent time on the injured list. While his strikeout rate declined slightly (from 25.4% to 23.2%) he improved his groundball (careeer-best 42.1%) and walk rates (career-best 6.1%). He also improved on the road after struggling away from home earlier in his career. Berrios looks set to remain a steady presence at the top of the Minnesota rotation and could take a leap forward if he can avoid another late-season decline.
Berrios became an All-Star in his second full season and enters 2019 as Minnesota's unquestioned ace. He boosted his K/9 from 8.6 to 9.5 while maintaining roughly league-average walk (2.8 BB/9) and groundball rates (41.5%). Unfortunately his strikeout gains were offset by a spike in HR/FB rate (9.1% to 12.8%), so his WHIP (1.14) moved into a top-20 range, while his ERA (3.84) ranked 32nd among qualified starters. In addition to limiting baserunners and missing bats, Berrios stood out for his durability, ranking 18th in MLB with 192.1 innings while logging seven-plus innings in 13 starts. He did appear to run out of gas late in the season with a 4.56 ERA and 4.7 BB/9 over the last two months, but still had a 10.1 K/9 over that stretch. Berrios has also had a troubling home-away split in his career, with a 4.85 road ERA last season. With good health, the 24-year-old righty should repeat his 2018 and with good luck and/or skills growth, he could surpass it.
Those who held firm in the belief that Berrios was the pitcher we saw in the minors and not the pitcher we saw in the majors in 2016 were handsomely rewarded last season. Berrios struggled so mightily in his big-league debut (8.02 ERA, 5.4 BB/9) it put into question his minor-league success, high pedigree (No. 32 overall pick in 2012) and prominent placement on prospect rankings from 2014 to 2016. He put those concerns to rest once called up to the majors in May by vastly reducing his walks (3.0 BB/9) while maintaining a solid strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) thanks largely to a 94 mph sinker with excellent late movement. He also heavily utilizes his four-seam fastball and hard 82 mph curveball, while occasionally mixing in a changeup, which is clearly his worst pitch. He'll need to improve his performance on the road (5.17 ERA and 12 homers allowed in 15 away starts), but otherwise looks set to take the mantle as Minnesota's ace at age 23.
Berrios entered last year as Minnesota's top pitching prospect, but his first tour of the majors went so poorly it raised questions about his viability to make an impact with the Twins. Berrios began the season at Triple-A and was spectacular at Rochester with a 2.51 ERA and 10.1 K/9 along with the good control he displayed in minors (2.9 BB/9). It was a different story in the majors, as he was hit hard across three stints. Berrios had an 8.02 ERA, gave up 12 home runs in 14 starts and was uncharacteristically wild with a 5.4 BB/9. Successful major league pitchers frequently struggle in their first trip to the majors, but few performed as poorly as Berrios. He did have a respectable 7.5 K/9 and 93.3 mph average fastball in the majors and earned a win with a decent final start (one earned run in five innings). He'll likely need to regroup at Triple-A at the start of the season before he gets another chance in the majors.
Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, is Minnesota's top pitching prospect and could win a spot in the starting rotation this spring. He began last season at Double-A Chattanooga and was dominant with a 3.08 ERA and 9.2 K/9. He then was even better after being promoted to Triple-A with a 2.62 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Minnesota decided not to call him up in September over concerns about his workload. People once questioned his upside given his smaller frame (6-feet, 187 pounds), but he's put most of those issues to rest after dominating at the higher levels of the minors. It's possible the Twins could keep Berrios at Triple-A for a couple weeks to gain an extra year of control, but he has proven all he can in the minors, and should be a mainstay in the Twins' rotation at some point in the early going.
Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, jumped three levels in 2014 and has staked his claim to be considered Minnesota's top pitching prospect. He began the season at High-A, but was promoted to Double-A in July after going 9-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 109:23 K:BB ratio in 96.1 innings. His numbers were not as impressive at Double-A as he had a 3.54 ERA and just a 6.2 K/9, but he held his own as a younger player age 20 at the level. Berrios then made one appearance in September at Triple-A. He has a mid-90s fastball and showed strong strikeout rates before Double-A (10.2 K/9 at High-A) with good control. While some analysts question his upside given his smaller frame (6-feet, 187 pounds), he's also seen as athletic with strong secondary pitches. Berrios will likely begin the season at Double-A, but a strong first few months could push him to the majors by the end of the summer.
Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, was impressive in his first full season as a professional. He had a 3.99 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 100:40 K:BB ratio with Low-A Cedar Rapids at just 19 years old. He did give up 10 runs in 10 innings in his final two starts, after missing time with a right elbow contusion, but he's expected to be fully healthy by spring training. The high school draft pick out of Puerto Rico is not huge at 6-0, 190, but he's able to hit the mid-90s with his fastball and is seen as athletic. A strong season at High-A could put him in position to join the Minnesota rotation in 2015.
Berrios, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, had an impressive professional debut as he had a 1.17 ERA and 49:4 K:BB in 30.2 innings between two levels of rookie ball. The high school draft pick out of Puerto Rico is not huge at six-feet and 190 pounds, but he is able to hit the mid-90s with his fastball and is seen as athletic. He could quickly rise to among Minnesota's top pitching prospects with a strong showing in his first full season.
More Fantasy News
Mediocre in victory
PToronto Blue Jays
June 16, 2024
Berrios (6-5) picked up the win Sunday against Cleveland, allowing four earned runs on eight hits and zero walks while striking out one batter over six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out four in loss
PToronto Blue Jays
June 10, 2024
Berrios (5-5) took the loss to the Brewers on Monday, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk with four strikeouts over 5.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Registers another quality start
PToronto Blue Jays
June 5, 2024
Berrios allowed two runs on six hits and three walks while striking out two batters over six innings in a no-decision against Baltimore on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp in Friday's no-decision
PToronto Blue Jays
June 1, 2024
Berrios came away with a no-decision in Friday's 5-3 extra-innings win over the Pirates, allowing one run on six hits over seven innings. He struck out five without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Tough-luck loss Saturday
PToronto Blue Jays
May 25, 2024
Berrios (5-4) took the loss Saturday, allowing two runs on seven hits over seven innings as the Blue Jays fell 2-1 to the Tigers. He struck out five without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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