Josh Lowe

25-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Tampa Bay Rays

2023 Stats

AVG

.281

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Lowe is a well-seasoned minor leaguer with lots of production fueled by a friendly Durham Athletic Park, but he has exactly 200 major league plate appearances over the past two season with little to write home about. Some of the limitation are the typical contract stalling techniques Tampa Bay is well known for, but some of Lowe's issues are of his own doing. He has had some issues in the field, which is not a good thing for a team that puts a premium on outfield defense. Lowe has also had a very similar issue to his older brother Nathaniel in struggles with good velocity up in the zone. The power numbers in Triple-A should not be the focus as much as the walk rate and his stolen base prowess as that is where his value truly lies. Lowe is 84 of his last 95 in stolen base attempts (88%) and has a top 50 home-to-first speed just .01 behind Oneil Cruz. The club will want to get that talent in the lineup somewhere but his defense and bat will need to earn it because the outfield depth chart is still thick even with the departure of Kiermaier. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#523

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 190

DOB 2/2/1998

Drafted 1st Rd 2016

Sitting again vs. lefty

OFTampa Bay Rays

September 20, 2023

Lowe is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game versus the Angels.

ANALYSIS
It's the second straight game on the bench for Lowe since the Angels are starting another lefty in Reid Detmers. Harold Ramirez will start in right field while Manuel Margot handles center.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+92%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+53%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+173%

OPS vs RHP

2021

-100%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.424	103	10	1	7	2	.147	.214	.211
Since 2021vs Right	.815	562	75	19	81	32	.286	.332	.484
2023vs Left	.548	57	7	1	6	2	.189	.246	.302
2023vs Right	.840	408	54	17	69	28	.294	.333	.507
2022vs Left	.269	46	3	0	1	0	.095	.174	.095
2022vs Right	.735	152	21	2	12	3	.259	.318	.417
2021vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021vs Right	2.000	2	0	0	0	1	1.000	1.000	1.000
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+19%

OPS on Road

2023

+19%

OPS on Road

2022

+2%

OPS on Road

2021

-100%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.688	317	36	5	32	15	.253	.294	.394
Since 2021Away	.816	348	49	15	56	19	.276	.330	.486
2023Home	.725	200	22	4	23	13	.275	.295	.430
2023Away	.866	265	39	14	52	17	.286	.343	.523
2022Home	.620	117	14	1	9	2	.212	.293	.327
2022Away	.635	81	10	1	4	1	.234	.272	.364
2021Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021Away	2.000	2	0	0	0	1	1.000	1.000	1.000
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Josh Lowe compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.23

BB Rate

5.8%

K Rate

24.7%

BABIP

.342

ISO

.200

AVG

.281

OBP

.323

SLG

.482

OPS

.804

wOBA

.348

Exit Velocity

89.1 mph

Hard Hit Rate

31.1%

Barrels/PA

7.3%

Expected BA

.272

Expected SLG

.468

Sprint Speed

24.4 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

40.0%

Line Drive %

20.6%

Fly Ball %

39.4%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Josh Lowe Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Rays Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2018

2017

Lowe put the finishing touches on his minor-league development last season, logging a career-best slash line (.291/.381/.535) and wRC+ (142) while doing his typical damage on the bases (26-for-26) and reaching a new level in the power department (22 HR, .244 ISO) in 111 games. Now he just needs an opening in the Rays outfield. In last year's outlook we noted that Lowe is the heir apparent to Kevin Kiermaier, and Kiermaier remains under contract for one more season at the time of the lockout. The Rays are often active in the offseason trade market, so it's difficult to predict how things will shake out. That may mean that Lowe is a shrewd target with an ADP outside the top 350 in NFBC Draft Champions leagues, as he could be going 100 spots higher if there were a clear path to playing time, and it sure seems like he's ready. In addition to plus power and plus-plus speed, Lowe is a plus defender in center field with a plus arm. An athletic 6-foot-4 specimen, Lowe will always have some holes in his swing, but he takes his walks and could go 20/20 as early as this year with over 500 plate appearances.

Lowe spent his age-22 season at the Rays' alternate training site, where he was the team's best outfield defender. He would have spent most of a normal season at Triple-A, which is where he will be assigned to start 2021. As a lefty-hitting center fielder, Lowe is the heir apparent to Kevin Kiermaier, who is under contract through 2022. Lowe may already be a better all-around player than Kiermaier, so he should unseat him sooner than later, especially now that he is on the 40-man roster. Long, lean and athletic, Lowe had success at Double-A (128 wRC+) and in the Arizona Fall League (.937 OPS) in 2019, even amid some swing and miss issues (25.4 K% at Double-A, 27.6 K% in the AFL). He has shown a propensity to take his walks and is undeniably more valuable in OBP leagues. The big draw for fantasy, however, is Lowe's potential to go 20/20, even if he sits against most lefties.

The younger, more dynamic brother of Nate Lowe, Josh is a good center fielder with the power/speed to go 25/25 in a full MLB season. There is no evidence he will ever hit for a very high batting average, but with walk rates north of 10% at High-A and Double-A, a middling AVG may not matter much in real life or in OBP/points leagues. Including a red-hot run in the Arizona Fall League to close the year, Lowe hit .277/.356/.474 with nine home runs, 16 steals (on 18 attempts), a 10.8 BB% and 24.5 K% in 69 games from July on. Standing 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, Lowe should remain a plus athlete into his late-20s. He uses the whole field and his 35.4 GB% at Double-A was elite. In terms of true center fielders, Lowe is clearly the next man up behind Kevin Kiermaier on the organizational depth chart. Kiermaier (1.5 fWAR in 2019) is under contract through 2022, but Lowe could unseat him as the everyday option by 2021.

For a toolsy 19-year-old in his first year in a full-season league, Lowe emerged with a passing grade. His overall line doesn't stand out, but he was slightly above league average (102 wRC+) and was able to show off his plus speed (22-for-30 on stolen-base attempts) while transitioning from third base to the outfield. He had an impressive finish to the season, hitting .307/.373/.425 over his final 255 plate appearances, but a .415 BABIP was largely responsible for that. So far his plus raw power has not shown up consistently in games, but at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, he should tap into a bit more pop as he gets used to more advanced pitching and gets more professional instruction. While his 28.4 percent strikeout rate was not ideal, his all-fields approach was very impressive. He almost hit as many balls to the opposite field (36.1 percent) as he did to the pull side (37.1 percent). Lowe has yet to fully break out, so he should be easily attainable in dynasty leagues, which is an odd thing to say about a high-pedigree hitting prospect with 20-20 potential.

The Rays' top pick of 2016 started the season with the Gulf Coast League Rays before a promotion to Princeton of the rookie Appalachian League, where he acquitted himself reasonably well over 100 plate appearances. The speedster tallied a trio of triples overall on the season, and although he only hit five homers over 214 plate appearances overall, he is thought to have plenty to offer in the power department going forward. Lowe sports a 6-foot-4 frame that should accommodate plenty of added bulk, which will only help his overall long-term fantasy prospects. While he's quite a ways off from the big league level, he's laden with potential as a possible five-tool player.

More Fantasy News

Out versus left-hander

OFTampa Bay Rays

September 19, 2023

Lowe is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Angels, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.