Zach Plesac

This needs to be said right out of the gate: Plesac was forced to miss five weeks of the 2021 season after injuring his pitching thumb while aggressively ripping off his jersey after a rough outing. Pleasac did run into 10 wins and still pitched to a 1.20 WHIP, but that was offset by a 4.67 ERA and a ghastly drop in his strikeout rate that fell 11 full percentage points. The 24.8 K-BB% from 2020 fell down to 11.0% in 2021 and took him from fantasy sleeper to fantasy headache. His Statcast page has more blue ink than a Bic pen exploding in your shirt pocket, and most of that comes from how poorly his fastball performed (the league hit .326 off the pitch with a .626 SLG). He threw it 42% of the time and the expected stats validate the pitch's poor outcomes. These same warning signs were there heading into 2021, especially with his fastball.

Fantasy players are excited about Plesac. He looked like one of the top up-and-coming starters in the game in 2020, going 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 55.1 innings. He paired a 27.7 K% with a minuscule 2.9 BB% while holding opposing hitters below the Mendoza Line combined. It was not all good, however, as Plesac violated COVID-19 protocols, got sent home and subsequently spent time at Cleveland's alternate training site. Plesac's fastball is rather hittable, but he has a great swing-and-miss slider and enjoyed great results with his changeup as well last season. Perspective is important; Plesac was mostly an afterthought at this time last year, his FIP was a run worse than his ERA -- he had a 91.7 LOB% -- and the question is how much, not if, his walk rate will regress. The early market has him just outside the top 15 starting pitchers. It's quite the leap of faith based on eight starts.

Plesac opened the season at Double-A, but injuries to Cleveland's rotation allowed him to make his big-league debut at the end of May. While the right-hander finished his rookie campaign with respectable numbers -- going 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 21 starts -- he provided plenty of reasons to be skeptical about his ability to repeat that success, most of which are reflected in his 4.94 FIP and 5.13 SIERA. Plesac didn't miss many bats, evidenced by his 9.9% swinging-strike rate and 6.8 K/9, while the contact he allowed was often problematic. His 7.6 Barrel% coupled with his 39.1 GB% resulted in a 1.5 HR/9. He also benefitted from a 78.6% strand rate -- which is tough for a starting pitcher to sustain -- and a .258 BABIP, which isn't supported by his batted-ball profile. Plesac will compete for a spot in the Indians' rotation in 2020, though his upside is limited regardless of his role.