Every fantasy basketball owner falls in love with rookies. They're unknowns, entering the league with plenty of fanfare and storylines behind them. Many are the future of their franchises with star potential, making them a target for many owners at their NBA fantasy draft.
But the reality is that most rookies are poor fantasy basketball options. You'll see that NBA projections predict that most will be inefficient from the floor with plenty of turnovers as they adjust to the rigors of an 82-game schedule against the world's top competition. Still, there's value for rookies in fantasy basketball drafts. The key is pinpointing where they can help you. And that's where a fantasy basketball draft kit can help you.
Top Rookie Prospects Ranked Higher Than Their ADP Suggests
The gem of the 2025 NBA Draft was Mavs forward Cooper Flagg, a do-it-all wing who could contribute immediately in all eight categories. He'll be off fantasy draft boards early, but you can find added value later in the draft against what their current NBA fantasy ADP suggests.
One is Hornets guard Kon Knueppel, who impressed in the Summer League with 15.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists. He'll be a boon in 3-pointers and counting stats. Knueppel's new teammate, center Ryan Kalbrenner, could also find immediate playing time and could be a difference maker in blocks and field goal percentage.
Keep a close eye on Thunder guard Nikola Topic, who missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL but should be healthy in 2025-26. OKC is the deepest team in the league with one of the elite NBA starting lineups, but he could be a sneaky late-round flier if he can carve out a spot in the rotation.
Why Rookies Can Be League-Changers in Fantasy Basketball
If you can stomach inefficiencies, especially early in the season, rookies can add plenty of value to your team. They should be a considerable part of your fantasy basketball rankings because most play significant roles for bad teams right away, meaning plenty of counting stats. They're also great holds on your roster or adds, if an owner cuts bait early. Most need some time to adjust, and then hit a rookie wall, but they see ample playing time toward the end of the season for tanking teams and seem to come into their own.
Many rookies also have a specialty that was their calling card at the collegiate level. Kalkbrenner, for instance, blocked 2.4 shots per game at Creighton over a five-year span, leading college basketball in that category his last three seasons. Kneuppel tallied 2.2 triples per game at Duke, while Spurs' rookie Dylan Harper nabbed 1.4 steals per game at Rutgers. Players like those can really contribute in niche categories, even if their counting stats in the main categories are lower.
Breakout Rookie Candidates Identified by Expert Rankings
Our NBA fantasy draft cheat sheet for rookies can help identify players that could break out by season's end. Though he was selected eighth overall, Nets' forward Egor Denim could contribute in a handful of categories across the board that make him worth considering for a Nets team that can and should be tanking late in the season. Jazz rookie Walter Clayton dazzled in March Madness and again in the NBA Summer League and doesn't face much competition in the Utah backcourt.
Older rookies tend to help right away, and that's what Nets' forward Danny Wolf should do in Brooklyn. He's a sneaky source of rebounds and assists and should be cheap based on current fantasy basketball auction values. Of course Flagg is a no-brainer in the early rounds of fantasy basketball drafts, but it's likely someone will reach on him sooner than they really should.
How to Balance Rookie Upside With Proven Veteran Stability
We can't stress enough how important it is to not chase rookies. Since 2020, only four have returned top-70 value. Flagg certainly could be one given his blue-chip status, and we couldn't blame someone for pulling the trigger on such a fun player.
But in most instances, we'd recommend going with a proven veteran who may have a lower ceiling, but certainly has a higher floor. You'll likely be checking the NBA injury report less often considering how often rookies get dinged up over the course of such a long season for them.
On the other hand, fantasy basketball is entertainment, and it's fun having rookies with unknown futures. If you find a gem, you'll look like the smartest guy in the league. We'd recommend saving rookies for your last few picks, and searching for players who can contribute in those scarce, niche categories like steals and blocks. Also consider the role they'll play for their new teams.
For all the latest updates, projections, and analysis on this year's rookie class, make sure you subscribe to RotoWire to find the next stars of the NBA on fantasy draft day.
