Derrick Rose
Derrick Rose
30-Year-Old GuardG
Minnesota Timberwolves
2018 Fantasy Outlook
After beginning the year as a cast member in the Cleveland Cavaliers soap opera, Rose took a brief leave of absence before signing on with the Wolves late in the regular season. Rose ultimately appeared in only nine games for Minnesota, but he made the most of his five postseason appearances, putting up 14.2 points and 2.6 assists in 23.8 minutes per game. Of course, the sample size was incredibly small, but Minnesota apparently saw enough to justify bringing Rose back on another one-year deal. The ups and downs of Rose's career have been beyond well-documented, and at this point it's wildly unrealistic to expect the soon-to-be-30-year-old to ever regain his once-elite place as the NBA's premier attacker at the point guard position. While that's been clear to most observers for the last few years, Rose has been hesitant to adapt to his diminished athleticism, and he remains a liability as a shooter, hovering under 30 percent from beyond the arc for his career. Rose will again compete with fourth-year Duke product Tyus Jones for minutes behind Jeff Teague, but it would be a major surprise if he's Fantasy-relevant in all but deeper Fantasy formats. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $2.39 million contract with the Timberwolves in July of 2018.
Paces second unit again
GMinnesota Timberwolves
December 13, 2018
Rose supplied 20 points (8-13 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 3-4 FT), four assists and one rebound across 22 minutes in the Timberwolves' 141-130 loss to the Kings on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
Rose's scoring total led the second unit and checked in second only to Andrew Wiggins' on the night for the T-Wolves. The 10-year veteran remains heavily involved in the offense despite his bench role, as he's put up double-digit shot attempts in five of six December contests. Having eclipsed 20 points in three of those games, Rose is averaging a solid 16.8 points on 47.3 shooting (including 41.7 percent from three-point range) across 29.0 minutes thus far in the current month.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
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After spending the first seven years of his career with the Bulls, Rose took his talents outside of Chicago for the first time in 2016-17 and signed a one-year, $21.3 million with the Knicks. Like he's come accustomed to over his injury-plagued career, Rose missed 18 games with various ailments, marking his fifth straight season sitting out at least 15 contests. That said, Rose was still one of the Knicks top options offensively, averaging 18.0 points per game, which was up from 16.4 he had in his final season in Chicago. Rose did, however, take a step back with his three-point shooting. After shooting an improved, yet still ugly 29.3 percent from deep in 2015-16, Rose was absolutely dreadful with a 21.7 percent clip, allowing defenders to sag off when needed. Rose did add 3.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and a 47.1 percent shooting percentage, though it wasn't enough to receive much interest on the free agent market this offseason. He ended up settling for a minimum deal with the Cavaliers in an attempt to join a contender. With the Cavaliers trading Kyrie Irving to the Celtics for Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder most notably, Rose is expected to fill backup point guard duties behind Thomas. That should mean a significant decrease in both playing time and all-around production, as Thomas is going to demand the bulk of the workload at the position. Look for Rose to settle in as just a role player for the first time in his career, although that could aid in his quest to stay healthy for an entire season.
Rose was the toast of Chicago after becoming the youngest MVP in NBA history following the 2010-11 season, but his career has been in a tailspin since suffering in a right ACL tear in the 2012 playoffs. He went on to play in just 61 regular-season games in the subsequent three seasons while recovering from the ACL injury and later, a meniscus tear to the same knee, but Rose’s health finally seemed to take a turn for the better in 2015-16. Even so, Rose still only suited up for 66 games while accumulating a number of nicks along the way, and more troublingly, looked like a shell of his former self. His averages of 16.4 points and 4.7 assists per game were his lowest of any season that he’d played at least 11 games, and while his 42.7 percent mark from the field wasn’t hideous, his 47.9 true shooting percentage ranked 316th of 350 qualifying players. That figure was dragged down in part by Rose’s lack of a reliable three-point shot, a bug in his game that he’s been unable to improve since he came into the league. Though Rose’s productivity trended upward after the All-Star break, his perennially shaky health and deteriorating relationship with the organization prompted the Bulls to trade him to the Knicks in June for what was essentially a collection of spare parts. The Knicks probably aren’t banking on Rose to reclaim his former glory, but even in his diminished state, the 28-year-old represents the organization’s best point guard since Stephon Marbury roamed Madison Square Garden. Rose will be looking to restore some value in New York before hitting free agency next season, but those who subscribe to the belief that players rise to the occasion in contract years should still be wary of investing in him, given his recurring health concerns. Even if he does well to steer clear of persistent injuries, Rose’s lack of assists and three-pointers relative to most floor generals places him in no better than the middle tier of the league’s starting point guards.
Rose struggled with injuries again last season as he only played in 51 games, although that was the most games he has played since the 2010-11 season. He finished the season averaging 17.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 1.5 three-pointers in 30 minutes per game. Although Rose shot 81 percent from the charity stripe, he struggled from the field as he shot 41 percent and also shot only 28 percent from behind the arc. His three-point shooting should be of particular concern as not only did he shoot for such a poor percentage, but he also averaged a career-high 5.3 attempts per game. It's likely Rose is trying to preserve his body by driving to the lane less, but he clearly has a ways to go before becoming a consistent shooter from distance. Rose has a lot of talent, but injuries have derailed his career up to this point. He will still only be 27 at the start of the season, but he doesn't seem like it with all of his injuries. The Bulls need Rose in their push for a title, but the key will be getting him to the playoffs healthy.
In 10 games last season, Rose averaged 15.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.1 blocks in 31 minutes per game before he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee. With just 49 games under his belt over the past three seasons, there are doubts that Rose will ever be the same player again, but even at 75 percent he's still an exceptional player who will have a major impact. With a strong supporting cast in Chicago this year, there won't be as much pressure on Rose to do everything himself. He'll especially have help offensively with the arrival of legitimate scoring threats in Pau Gasol, Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic. Rose has sworn up-and-down that he will not be changing his aggressive, slashing style of play to take the pressure off of his knees, but it won't be known for certain until we see him running the offense again. As a member of Team USA this summer, Rose did not appear limited by any lingering knee issues, though he did struggle, at times, offensively. It's tough to peg how Rose's production will be affected by some of the drastic changes this Bulls team has undergone over the past few seasons, but he's still the most important factor to his squad's success. With the type of competitor he's proven to be, he will likely stop at nothing to make sure he returns to All-Star status. Patience will be key for fantasy owners who to decide to scoop up Rose, as an adjustment period will almost certainly be required before he returns to form.
Derrick Rose's status is the biggest question mark looming over the 2013-14 NBA season. Will he regain the form that made him league MVP in 2011? Will the ACL injury he suffered during the 2012 playoffs rob him of his explosiveness? How long will it take him to shake off the rust that must have accumulated as he sat out all of last season? According to reports, Rose is now 100 percent healthy, will be running with Chicago's starters during the preseason and has even been working on his game – adding range to his jumper and a lefty floater – during his rehab. Sounds great. Unfortunately, given the mis-information that was released by sources close to the Bulls late last season – when many expected Rose to return for the stretch drive and playoffs – it is hard to trust those pronouncements fully. Instead, it seems reasonable to expect a Rose somewhere between his stellar 2010-11 level, when he averaged 25 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.1 boards, and his 2011-12 season, when his scoring average dropped to 21.8 and he was limited to just 39 games during the regular season due to a series of injuries. It's also worth noting that – even before the ACL tear – Rose was a step below the truly elite point guards in terms of fantasy numbers. He's never been a good three-point shooter; he doesn't generate a lot of steals; and his free-throw percentage is just ordinary.
Rose finished up an injury-plagued 2011-12 season the worst way possible--being carried off the court with a torn ACL. The injury--suffered in the closing seconds of the Bulls' playoff opener--is expected to take 10-12 months to fully heal. As such the 2011 NBA MVP probably isn't worth a roster spot in most single-season fantasy NBA formats coming out of the draft. If your league host allows for a injury spot on the roster, it could be worth stashing him, but for any sites that do not allow you to place a player in an injury slot and pick up a replacement, the lack of production from a roster spot for the first two-to-five months of the season would be too much of a risk to take at draft time in most formats.
Rose is the reigning NBA MVP – and deservedly so. He carried the Bulls to the NBA’s best overall record and posted stellar averages of 25.0 points, 7.7 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 44.5 percent from the field and making a massive leap in three-pointers made (128 last season, as compared with just 16 made threes in 2009-10.) The addition of an outside shot makes Rose a much more valuable commodity than in his first two seasons, when he was really just a points/assists player. It seems fair to expect continued improvement from Rose in all phases of the game; when the 2011-12 season tips off, he’ll be just 23 years old. That said, it’s also worth noting that a large part of his MVP candidacy was based on the fact that he carried the Bulls through extended periods when Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah were unavailable. And during the playoffs, Miami was able to neutralize Chicago’s attack by putting LeBron James on Rose; none of the other Bulls were able to step up and make key plays. It wouldn’t be shocking if Rose is unable to duplicate last year’s MVP numbers in 2011-12, simply because his team may look for more balance.
By any reasonable standard, Rose has already emerged as one of the top point guards in the game, having led the Bulls to the playoffs and given the Celtics fits more or less single-handedly. Any reasonable standard, that is, but fantasy basketball, where Rose is strictly a middle-tier option. The reason is simple: though Rose is one of the best scorers in the league at his position, and though he's able to dish out seven or eight assists on any given night, in every other roto category, at this stage of his career, he's basically an average-or-below player. Of course, that might not always be the case – this year, Rose may have an opportunity to produce in other categories, simply because his Bulls will be the deepest they've been since the last Michael Jordan championship squad. The addition of Carlos Boozer – giving Rose a clear "option 1a" in the offense and a top-flight pick-and-roll partner – is particularly significant, as Boozer will eliminate some of the "I have to take the big shots" pressure off Rose, and could allow him to expand his game.
Rookies aren’t usually ideal options for fantasy teams, but last year’s first-overall selection, Chicago’s Derrick Rose, proved to be the exception. Rose launched his NBA career in high style, averaging 16.8 points, 6.3 assists, 3.9 boards and .475 shooting from the floor on the way to a near-unanimous Rookie of the Year selection. He then flashed his considerable potential by torching the Celtics for 36 points and 11 dimes in Game 1 of the playoffs. After that debut, Rose seems well on his way toward joining the company of Chris Paul and Deron Williams as the truly elite young point guards in the game. And there’s significant room for improvement. Rose’s outside shot is spotty at best – he made just 16 threes on the season, hitting on just over 20 percent of his attempts. His defense could use some work – you’d like to him average more than one steal per game. And you’d like to see him get to the line a little more – 250 free throw attempts as a rookie – and convert a little better once he gets there.
Rookie point guards in the NBA aren’t typically good bets for fantasy teams. The top overall pick in this year’s draft, Rose could be an exception to that rule, with his quickness, athleticism and scoring ability. Nonetheless, Rose might not be a full-timer off the bat as the Bulls have the luxury of veteran Kirk Hinrich who can share the job with him. That’s not an arrangement that will continue much beyond this season, but it could limit Rose’s production. What might make Rose more valuable is the Ben Gordon situation. Gordon says he’s not coming back to Chicago this year. If that’s the case, more minutes will be available in the backcourt. Rose can get to the basket, that’s for sure, but he wasn’t asked to be much of a distributor at Memphis. He’ll need to work on that end of his game as well as his outside shot.
Rose is eager to start his Chicago Bulls career. While he wanted to be the No. 1 overall pick, what he wanted even more was to head back to his hometown, and the Bulls were happy to comply with both requests. Rose will struggle some this year, as rookie point guards are wont to do, but he'll fortunately have a good mentor in Kirk Hinrich, who will no doubt give Rose a good ribbing for losing the NCAA championship to his alma mater. Rose is capable of helping in a lot of categories this season, and is a good rebounder for his size.
More Fantasy News
Leads bench in scoring
GMinnesota Timberwolves
December 11, 2018
Rose supplied 21 points (8-18 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 3-3 FT), four assists, three rebounds, two steals and two blocks across 34 minutes in the Timberwolves' 116-108 loss to the Warriors on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Flirts with double-double in start
GMinnesota Timberwolves
December 8, 2018
Rose finished with 18 points (9-25 FG, 0-1 3Pt), nine assists, three rebounds, three steals, and one block in 37 minutes during Saturday's 113-105 loss to Portland.
ANALYSIS
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Will start for Covington
GMinnesota Timberwolves
December 8, 2018
Rose will start in place of the injured Robert Covington (knee) on Saturday.
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Bounces back with 16 points
GMinnesota Timberwolves
December 6, 2018
Rose scored 16 points with three assists in 26 minutes in Wednesday's win over Charlotte.
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Team-high 26 points Saturday
GMinnesota Timberwolves
December 1, 2018
Rose totaled 26 points (11-18 FG, 2-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), four assists, and one steal in 29 minutes during Saturday's 118-109 loss to the Celtics.
ANALYSIS
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