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Potential Conference Tournament Matchups


ACC

Boston College could potentially play Clemson in the second round, assuming they get past Wake Forest, whom they just beat at home 84-68 on Sunday.  The game would essentially be a play in/out game as both teams are squarely on the bubble.  In their first meeting, a month ago, BC lost to Clemson on the road 69-77.  Reggie Jackson would be known as Mr. March if he gets hot and carries the Eagles to the NCAA tournament.  The winner will take on North Carolina and could pull the upset.  Last month the Tar Heels beat these two teams by a combined four points. 

Virginia Tech could play Florida State in the second round, assuming they get past Georgia Tech.  The Hokies are on the bubble and probably on the wrong side of it right now, so this is a potential play in game.  For the Seminoles, Leonard Hamilton is saying that Chris Singleton (foot) could be back for this game, but even if he is back, how many minutes can he play?  I can't see either team getting past Duke in the semifinals.

Big 12

Colorado faces Iowa State in the first round and I expect them to handle their business, considering they just lost to them less than a week ago and should be out for revenge.  If they lose this game, they are almost certainly off the bubble, but if they win, they get a third meeting with Kansas State, whom they've already beaten twice.  Win that game and they should be in, no questions asked; lose and they're at the hands of the committee.  

Baylor meets Oklahoma in the first round and then potentially Texas in the second round.  I doubt the Bears can beat the Longhorns on a neutral court, considering they couldn't beat them at home on Saturday night, but weirder things have happened. Baylor would probably have to make the finals to get on the right side of the bubble.

Big East

Marquette is the closest thing to a bubble team in the conference.  They face Providence in the first round and should win that game, despite the presence of Marshon Brooks.  Just not losing to Providence should put them in the tourney, while a win against West Virginia in the second round would solidify their presence and potentially help their seeding. 

I'm very concerned about Villanova, who hasn't had a decent win in over a month.  I'm also concerned about Georgetown, who hasn't played the same since Chris Wright (wrist) went down. 

Big Ten

Michigan's second round game with Illinois should be a great one.  The Illini are coming off a home win against Indiana, but haven't won two games in a row since early January.  Their struggles are directly related to the erratic play of PG Demetri McCamey.  The Wolverines on the other hand have been playing well down the stretch, winners of eight of their last eleven.  Their win over Michigan State on Saturday gave them a season sweep of the Spartans and most likely put them over the top and into the tournament.  I really like the way Tim Hardaway Jr. has been playing lately.

Michigan State, what a mess.  They play Iowa in the first round of the tourney and have nothing to gain there as a loss most likely sends them to the NIT.  Now before you just assume that they'll get past the Hawkeyes, remember that Michigan State lost to Iowa by 20 earlier this season on the road.  In the second round, they would face Purdue, who is the #2 seed in this event.  When you take into account that this is being played in Indianapolis it's really tough to see Sparty coming away with a win, but this is the time of the year when Tom Izzo shines.  Hopefully he gets an inspired effort from Durrell Summers, who has had one game since the start of February where he's scored in double digits. 

Penn State should be getting more run as a team on the bubble as their resume isn't that far off from either of the Michigan schools.  They get Indiana in the first round and potentially Wisconsin in the second round.  The Nittany Lions beat the Badgers earlier this season at home, so there's some hope that they can pull the upset a second time.  A win there would certainly have Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm talking.

Pac-10

USC finished the season strong with wins in five of their last six games, including wins over Arizona and Washington.  They face Cal in the second round, whom they split the season series with.  This tournament is being played in LA, which should favor USC, but no one ever shows up for it, so that there's that.  If the Trojans can get past the Bears, they'll potentially face Arizona.  A win over Arizona would almost certainly put them right there on the edge of the last four in/out line.  Should this be the case, hopefully the selection committee takes into consideration how well this team has played since Jio Fontan joined them mid-season.  Should Cal beat USC, a rematch of the triple-overtime thriller against Arizona would be fun to watch. 

Washington and Washington State are both right there on the bubble if you ask me.  The Huskies lost two of their last three home games, one of which was to the Wazzu.  And they probably would have lost to UCLA, had it not been for C.J. Wilcox hitting nearly every open shot he took.  The Cougars have had their own recent troubles as star Klay Thompson was suspended for the season finale against UCLA for possession of weed.  Wazzu lost that game by four points at home.  Had they had Thompson, they probably would have won the game and put themselves on the right side of the bubble.  Thompson is expected to be back for the second round game against the Huskies.  If the Cougs can win the game, they'll obviously be in better position to get an at-large bid, but I'm not sure it puts them over the top.  Now if they follow that up with a win over UCLA, then they're in.

SEC

Georgia should already be in and working on seeding if you ask me (no one does), but the forces that be say they're on the wrong side of the bubble and have work to do.  They face Auburn in the first round and should crush them.  This sets up a fantastic bubble game with Alabama, who is right there with the Bulldogs on the wrong side of the bubble.  These teams just played on Saturday with 'Bama winning by 12 at home.  This tournament is played in Atlanta, so you have to think that there will be a decent number of Georgia fans in attendance.  The loser of this game is almost certainly in the NIT and the winner will pray they get to face Kentucky in the semifinals as a win over South Carolina or Ole Miss, does nothing for them. 

A-10

Richmond has a potential semifinals game with Temple, if they can get by the Rhode Island/St. Louis winner from the first round.  The Spiders are on the right side of the bubble, but a loss to Rhode Island might make things dicey.  They lost to Rhode Island earlier this season at home by four points, so a win against them is not a given. 

C-USA

UAB is the #1 seed in the conference tournament and should make it to the semifinals without much trouble.  East Carolina got hot at the tail end of the season, before traveling to UAB for an 18 point whipping.  The other potential opponent for the Blazers is Central Florida, who started out 14-0 this season before conference play set in and they fell to the back of the pack.  UAB will likely face the winner of a Southern Miss/Memphis quarterfinals matchup.

Memphis has disappointed the entire season and while they have a bye in this tournament, an early exit wouldn't surprise even the biggest Tigers fan.  They'll almost certainly face Southern Miss in the quarterfinals, a team that lost five of their last seven and that they swept the season series from.  If they win that game they get UAB, as earlier mentioned. 

UTEP is the #3 seed and should have no problem with Marshall or Houston in their quarterfinals match, before they face Tulsa in the semifinals.  They split the season series with the Golden Hurricanes.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Randy Culpepper lead this team back to the NCAA tournament behind the home crowd in El Paso. 

Tulsa is the #2 seed and should handle either SMU or Rice.  They swept the Owls and split the season series with the Mustangs.  Facing UTEP in El Paso in the semifinals will be a tough task.  They lost there earlier this season 59-69.  However, if they can get a win there, they'll most likely get a shot at UAB, Memphis, or Southern Miss, which they went a combined 3-0 against.