I'm reprising this exercise from last year because I think it's useful to identify potential breakouts and upside plays.

There are essentially four variables that determine a player's value: (1) Health; (2) Skills; (3) Team Context; and (4) Role. Of the four, (1) and (4) are most subject to dramatic change, so I've eliminated them for the purposes of these rankings.

In the first table, I assume every player were guaranteed 16 games. In the second, I've ranked the top-20 QB, RB, WR and TE irrespective of roles, i.e., assuming everyone had an equal number of basic opportunities. For QBs, that's 550 passing attempts, for RBs, that's 250 carries, for WRs and TEs, that's 130 targets. (I'm assuming a full PPR format.)

Several players see significant boosts: Ben Roethlisberger moves from No. 18 on my actual board (he'd be higher in 12-team 1-QB format, but my projections have to account for superflex and 2-QB leagues, too) to No. 7. Cam Newton and Andrew Luck are elite options given guaranteed full seasons, and Carson Palmer cracks the top 20.

At RB, Le'Veon Bell moves ahead of David Johnson, Ty Montgomery slots at No. 11, and Lamar Miller and Marshawn Lynch are both boosted a few spots from my regular cheat sheet.

At WR, Dez Bryant, Sammy Watkins, Alshon Jeffery, John Brown and Keenan Allen are the biggest risers. Reliable types like Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry drop out of the top 20.

Finally at TE, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert belong in the Rob Gronkowski tier, while Julius Thomas moves up to No. 13.

Let's take a look at the Opportunity-Neutral Ranks. These eliminate not only health (you can't have opportunities without it), but also the hard-to-predict whims of coaches and coordinators:

You'll notice the running QBs dominate - give them sufficient passing volume, and the stationary QBs simply can't compete. Moreover, running QBs are at greater risk of injury, and this eliminates that variable too. While that risk is real, and running QBs lose attempts when they elect to take off rather than check down, the list still gives you an idea of what would happen if due to a poor defense, the running QB had to throw an inordinate amount, e.g., 2015 Blake Bortles who finished as the No. 3 fantasy QB. You might also notice I put Colin Kaepernick at No. 14 - he'd be a monster with 550 attempts in a passing-game non-wasteland.

At RB, a few players jump up - Ty Montgomery would be huge if he had a big ground workload, because he'll also catch passes, and he plays in a great offense. This is where Joe Mixon might be ranked if he were guaranteed the starting job, and Mark Ingram has been very good when Sean Payton deigns to use him. I avoided putting third-down specialists like Theo Riddick or Danny Woodhead in the rankings as there's virtually no way they'd see that kind of early-down workload. I did add C.J. Prosise who I hadn't realized was 6-1, 225.

At WR, Martavis Bryant clocks in at No. 5, just behind the guys likely headed to Canton. He might even be No. 1 with that kind of volume, but we need to see how sharp he is first. Brandin Cooks would be almost be even money against Antonio Brown with equal opportunity and Tom Brady as his QB, and Watkins and Bryant would be huge if healthy and heavily targeted by their run-first teams. DeVante Parker has shown flashes over his first two seasons, has had a great offseason and could be a monster were he to see No. 1 WR volume. Tyrell Williams would too if he simply played at last year's pace but with more volume. At No. 20, I have Josh Gordon in the unlikely event he gets reinstated. Like Bryant, it's hard to say what he'd do after the layoff, and it's unclear what team he'd be with. But lock him in for 150 looks, and I'd roll the dice on him.

Finally, at TE, it's similar to the health list with Hunter Henry (promising rookie season) and Martellus Bennett (ideal situation) getting moved up a spot. Dwayne Allen is the biggest mover - if Gronkowski were to get hurt, and the Pats needed a red zone target, he'd be a top-10 if he could ever stay healthy.