This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With the first half of the Elite Eight coming up on Saturday's college hoops slate, here's my breakdown.
Illinois 
vs. Connecticut 
Here we have the top-two offensive teams squaring off. With its impressive yet hardly surprising performance against San Diego State, Connecticut has usurped the title of the most efficient offensive team from Illinois.
The Illini's explosive offensive attack is largely responsible for their success as they rank 34th in effective field goal percentage, 56th in offensive turnover percentage, 17th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 63rd in free-throw attempt rate to give us a team that can score in many different ways and doesn't show a clear weakness. They have senior point guard Marcus Domask facilitating the action, but the ace up Illinois' sleeve is superstar forward Terrence Shannon as he's scored over 24 points over his last seven matchups. His performances have been so dominant that he earned KenPom's MVP honors across the same seven-game stretch. And if Shannon struggles at all, he's supported by an effective supporting cast with three teammates knocking down at least 38 percent of shots from behind the arc (with at least 110 attempts). Scoring on UConn is no easy feat, though the Illini appear to offer enough offensive talent and skills to increase their chances of success. UConn allowed St. John's to produce 90 points in the Big East tournament a couple weeks ago, proving that the defense isn't impenetrable even though it has seemed like it thus far in this event.
The defending champs don't need much introduction. They're among the best in the country at both ends of the court, yet it's the offensive side that will carry a massive advantage on Saturday because Illinois' defense is a huge liability ranking 84th in the nation in efficiency while finishing the Big Ten conference season ranked ninth. More importantly, they have two major defensive weaknesses that play right into UConn's hands. Illinois rarely forces turnovers with the lowest defensive percentage among all D1 teams while the Huskies rank 43rd on the offensive end. The Illini also allowed Big Ten opponents to make 39 percent of three pointers, the second-worst percentage allowed in the conference. This is far from ideal as UConn is a sharp-shooting team with a league-high 38 percent success rate from deep versus Big East opponents, so they appear well-positioned to knock down some long-range shots on Saturday.
Another factor to consider is the styles of each team. Connecticut tends to execute at a methodical and slower tempo, but Illinois is the opposite as they push the pace as much as possible while ranking 69th in that statistic. It's also worth noting they sit 56th in average defensive possession length, suggesting they force their opponents to make quick shots, for better or worse. Given this playing style, it's easy to see how the over has hit in five of the last six matchups involving Illinois, according to Action Network.
I'm not about to fade UConn, but I'm also reluctant to ignore the scoring prowess of Terrence Shannon and company. Considering the strengths and weaknesses of each and Illinois' penchant for playing fast, I prefer our odds of seeing a high-scoring affair. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 155
Clemson 
vs. Alabama 
These teams previously clashed in November at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa where Clemson dealt Alabama one of only two home losses. The Tigers entered halftime leading 33-32 and then erupted for 52 points to win by eight. The same key players will return to the court on Saturday, so we can reasonably expect another competitive game from the Tigers.
Stopping Alabama from scoring is tough for any team, but Clemson's defense appears built for the job as they've faced similarly potent offensive teams having taken down Baylor and Arizona en route to the Elite Eight. Each opponent ranks in the top-12 of all teams in offensive efficiency, with the Bears only a couple of slots below Alabama, so overcoming an elite offensive team is nothing new for Clemson.
The Tigers do two things particularly well on defense that can help them win on Saturday. They're strong on the defensive glass, ranking 57th in defensive rebounding percentage. This is key because Alabama is effective on the offensive end, recording the 25th-highest offensive rebounding percentage. Clemson also boast excellent interior defense holding opponents to 47 percent on shots from inside the arc, the 47th-lowest percentage allowed. This imposing interior presence is also reflected in their rejection ability at 78th in block percentage. This is another useful skill when facing Alabama, a team prone to having its shots blocked ranking 348th in that department.
At the other end, Clemson will go against the worst defensive team remaining in the tournament. Alabama ranks 102nd in defensive efficiency, the perpetual weakness of the team all season. With its upset win over North Carolina, Alabama bucked a trend of losing to great offensive sides. The Crimson Tide has now played 16 times against an opponent with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks in the top-40 of the nation while losing 11. The Tigers sit 24th in offensive efficiency and have displayed solid stats across the board ranking 46th in offensive turnover percentage, 10th in free throw percentage, 110th in three-point field goal percentage, and 35th in two-point percentage. That last number is perhaps the most important, as Alabama's defense is weaker on the interior as they've given up 51 percent of two-point field goal attempts.
Clemson already beat Alabama once this season - in a hostile environment, no less - so I like their odds of keeping the game close. They're the more balanced squad having already knocked out two of the best teams in the nation. I'm taking the Tigers.
Alabama's extremely fast playing style inevitably turns each game into a track meet. The Crimson Tide boasts the 10th-fastest adjusted tempo and it plays even quicker on offense with the third-shortest offensive possession length among all D1 teams. With all that in mind, it makes sense how the combined point total in Alabama's games has gone over 165 from 12 out of their last 14 appearances. On a related note, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the over has hit 12 times during that stretch, according to Action Network. Based on these facts, I'm also picking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Clemson +3.5 and Over 164.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Illinois vs. UConn - Over 155
- Clemson +3.5
- Clemson vs. Alabama - Over 164.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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