This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
February is history. March is in the air. Conference Tournaments are here. Let's take a look at some captivating storylines as the NCAA Tournament inches closer and closer by the second.
As of this moment, which team is the favorite to cut down the nets in Arizona?
Contrary to the assertions that this year is wide open, there really only appear to be a select few teams that can win the whole enchilada. That said, there does not appear to be one team head and shoulders above the rest, though an argument could be made for Kansas. The Jayhawks have the type of guard play with Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham that can seize hold of the tourney. The best player in the tourney could be Lonzo Ball, though, and perhaps UCLA could ride the freshman to victory, much like Syracuse did with Carmelo Anthony in 2003. Certainly Ball and Melo are different players, though. And keep in mind that "one and done" phenoms haven't always kept up their end of the bargain come tourney time. I'm still mad at Kevin Durant for blowing up my bracket when he was at Texas.
But back to the drama at hand. It's also tough to tell which of the elite three Pac-12 schools (UCLA, Oregon, Arizona) is the best since they've been beating up on each other. You can't count out the defending champion Wildcats either, and North Carolina has the size to punish the opposition on the interior and assert its
February is history. March is in the air. Conference Tournaments are here. Let's take a look at some captivating storylines as the NCAA Tournament inches closer and closer by the second.
As of this moment, which team is the favorite to cut down the nets in Arizona?
Contrary to the assertions that this year is wide open, there really only appear to be a select few teams that can win the whole enchilada. That said, there does not appear to be one team head and shoulders above the rest, though an argument could be made for Kansas. The Jayhawks have the type of guard play with Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham that can seize hold of the tourney. The best player in the tourney could be Lonzo Ball, though, and perhaps UCLA could ride the freshman to victory, much like Syracuse did with Carmelo Anthony in 2003. Certainly Ball and Melo are different players, though. And keep in mind that "one and done" phenoms haven't always kept up their end of the bargain come tourney time. I'm still mad at Kevin Durant for blowing up my bracket when he was at Texas.
But back to the drama at hand. It's also tough to tell which of the elite three Pac-12 schools (UCLA, Oregon, Arizona) is the best since they've been beating up on each other. You can't count out the defending champion Wildcats either, and North Carolina has the size to punish the opposition on the interior and assert its will. The wild card is once again Gonzaga. Are the 'Zags for real? Or will they once again flounder on the big stage and fail to make the Final Four?
Other than the above-referenced squads? While certainly schools like Duke, Louisville and Kentucky could grab headlines and have the talent on paper to win an NCAA Title, they're just not consistent enough to trust at this point in time. Subject to change, of course. There's still a couple of weeks before the big dance.
Will a deserving ACC squad be left out of the tourney?
The Atlantic Coast Conference could have as many as 11 deserving teams, though it appears that despite a terrific coaching job by coach Josh Pastner, Georgia Tech will likely be left on the outside looking in. Still, Wake Forest, Syracuse and perhaps even Virginia Tech may have to sweat things out on Selection Sunday. Syracuse will be the most interesting of the trio. The Orange have some impressive victories over Florida State, Duke and Virginia, though all three wins came at home. Syracuse is 2-7 on the road during ACC play, and didn't even put up a fight in Saturday's loss to Louisville. The Orange also lost to St. John's, Georgetown and UConn in the non-conference slate, which certainly won't help matters either. The Orange may need a big run in the ACC Tournament to silence the doubters.
Which teams are flying under the radar and could make some noise in the NCAA Tournament?
How about SMU? Despite being ranked, the Mustangs are not getting the appropriate amount of respect. Larry Brown is their coach, their star player is a transfer from Duke, and they have won 21 of their last 22 games. Dayton is another fan-favorite, as the Flyers made the Elite 8 just a few seasons ago. The top four scorers are all seniors, and three of them were on that previous magical squad. Dayton currently sits atop the A-10 with little fanfare. Need a sleeper? Princeton is undefeated in the Ivy League, and the Tigers are in the top 10 in the nation in three-pointers made. The three-point shot can be the great equalizer for the underdog during the tourney.
Still can't get enough? Let's look at some players making headlines in this edition of the College Hoops Barometer
UPGRADE
John Collins, F, Wake Forest - As mentioned, the Demon Deacons are a bubble team, but if they do not make the NCAA Tournament, it will not be due to Collins. The sophomore forward has been a double-double dynamo, putting up 14 double-doubles this season. He has been particularly productive of late, posting three-straight double-doubles and six in his last seven games. Collins is second in the ACC in rebounding and fourth in scoring. The Demon Deacons may have an uphill climb to gain an at-large berth into the big dance, but Collins has been doing everything in his power to make them a viable candidate.
Bam Adebayo, F, Kentucky - The freshman whose given name is Edrice has been a menace on the interior for the Wildcats of late. The 6-foot-10, 260-lb neophyte has tallied double-digit rebounds in three of the last five games. This included an 18-point, 15-rebound effort against a ranked Florida squad. By contrast, in the first 25 games of the season, Adebayo recorded double-digit rebounds in just three contests. Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are on a seven-game winning streak, and the improved play of Adebayo is a big reason. He gives the Wildcats an imposing presence inside to complement the outstanding guard play.
Jared Terrell, G, Rhode Island - The Rams are firmly on the bubble, but Terrell is attempting to push Rhode Island over the top and into uncharted territory. After all, the Rams have not been to the big dance this century, with their last trip coming in 1999. The 6-foot-3 guard posted a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds in Rhode Island's most recent win, a 69-59 upset victory over VCU. The Rams are currently riding a three-game winning streak, and Terrell has scored at least 20 points in two of those three outings. He tied a season high with 24 points at La Salle last Tuesday. The resume for the Rams has an early-season win over Cincinnati but losses to Valparaiso and fellow bubble team Providence. Terrell and company still may have some work to do.
Matt Farrell, G, Notre Dame - The Irish are most definitely tournament worthy on the heels of a five-game winning streak which has boosted their conference record to 11-5, which is tied for second in the ACC. Farrell has taken his game to new heights this season, going from part-time performer to primetime player. The junior guard is averaging 14.3 points, 2.1 rebounds and 5.4 assists per contest. Farrell has registered 16 outings with at least six assists, including a double-double against Big Ten regular season champion Purdue back in December. Farrell is also one of four players for Notre Dame averaging at least 13 points per game. The balanced, measured, unselfish offensive attack of the Irish under the direction of Farrell, combined with stifling defense will make Notre Dame a dangerous out come tourney time.
CHECK STATUS
Nick Ward, C, Michigan State - The freshman big man has really been coming into his own of late, posting back-to-back 20-plus point, nine-rebound outings for the Spartans. In fact, he's scored in double figures in seven of the last eight games for Michigan State. Can he keep up this level of production and keep Michigan State's impressive streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances alive? Sunday's win over Wisconsin certainly helps Sparty's cause, and a win over Maryland in the regular season finale could provide enough of a boost to get coach Tom Izzo back in the big dance for the 20th year in a row.
Yoeli Childs, F, BYU - Childs is nursing an ankle injury but did manage to take the floor in Saturday's upset win over previously undefeated Gonzaga. However, it was clear Childs was not his usual self, managing just four points, three rebounds and two assists in 20 minutes. He battled foul trouble throughout the game and eventually fouled out. The Cougars did get a monstrous performance from fellow forward Eric Mika, though, to spur the squad to a stunning 79-71 victory. Childs had been surging prior to the injury, averaging a double-double for the 10 previous games played with 11.3 points and 10.4 rebounds. The Cougs will likely have to take down both Gonzaga and Saint Mary's in the WCC Tournament to make the big dance, and will need everyone at full strength to topple those two giants.
Markus Howard, G, Marquette - Howard's production as a freshman has mirrored Marquette's case for an NCAA Tournament bid. Inconsistency has been the biggest bugaboo. Howard has eight games of at least 20 points this season. he has also failed to score in double figures in 10 games as a freshman. He poured in a career high 34 points in an 83-61 thrashing of Xavier on February 18th. However, that game was sandwiched between outputs of three points apiece in a loss to Georgetown and a win over St. John's. Howard subsequently racked up 24 points in Marquette's last game, a 73-69 loss to Providence. A deadly shooter from long range, Howard is hitting an impressive 55.4 percent of his shots from downtown. However, sometimes he simply gets lost in the shuffle. The Golden Eagles may feel similarly if they do not hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
Kenrich Williams, G/F, TCU - Despite losing five games in a row and possessing a sub-.500 record, the Horned Frogs are still being talked about for an at-large bid to March Madness. TCU started the season out 11-1, with their only loss to SMU. They also have a win over fellow bubble team Illinois State; only one bid will likely be given to the Missouri Valley Conference between Wichita State and Illinois State. A loss at Texas Tech stands out as the only real bad loss for the Horned Frogs, who have lost a slew of close games to teams with better records in the Big12. Williams is nearly averaging a double-double for TCU. In fact, he's second in the conference in rebounding, having reached double figures in rebounding 16 times, including thrice in the last four games. That big win (or two) certainly appears to be missing for the Horned Frogs, though, and it would have to come in the Big 12 Tournament. Otherwise, the bubble may have already burst for Texas Christian.
DOWNGRADE
Alec Peters, F, Valparaiso - Peters, a double-double machine averaging 23 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, has led the Crusaders to three-straight regular season crowns in the Horizon League. However, the Crusaders have been upset in the conference tournament in each of the last two years. Now a senior, Peters is looking for one more chance at March glory, but he's been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his leg. There is hope he will be available for the Horizon League Tournament, but that appears to be no guarantee at this time. This injury is significant for its effect on the Horizon League's representative in the NCAA Tournament. The absence of the Preseason Player of the Year in the conference tournament could give teams like Oakland, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay renewed confidence in the attempt to secure an automatic bid to March Madness.
Manu Lecomte, G, Baylor - The Bears certainly hope Lecomte gets healthy in a hurry, as the transfer from Miami missed Monday's tilt with West Virginia due to an ankle injury. Lecomte did not record a point, rebound or assist in Baylor's previous game either despite playing 15 minutes in a 72-69 loss to Iowa State. Lecomte is the catalyst for the Baylor offense, leading the squad in dishing. He is also second in scoring, managing 12.4 points per contest. Sophomore Jake Lindsay should be the most direct recipient of increased assists if Lecomte remains sidelined, though certainly senior Ishmail Wainwright will also have a say. In addition, freshman Wendell Mitchell played a career high 19 minutes in the absence of Lecomte last game.
Devon Daniels, G, Utah - Daniels, a freshman who started 26 of the first 27 games of his collegiate career for the Utes, has been suspended indefinitely due to conduct detrimental to the team. Daniels was fourth on the squad in scoring with 10.4 points per game, and second on the team in dishing with 2.7 dimes per tilt. The Utes are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, and the absence of Daniels certainly does nothing to help their cause. it remains to be seen if Daniel will return to boost the Utes down the stretch.
Esa Ahmad, F, West Virginia - A back injury has sidelined Ahmad for the last three games, and it has not yet been determined when he will be able to return to the court. Though the injury is not considered serious, a back ailment can be fickle. The 6-foot-8 sophomore is the second-leading scorer for the Mountaineers, though his size has been missed the most by West Virginia, especially on the glass. The Mountaineers were manhandled on the glass by Baylor in Monday's 71-62 loss to the Bears. In fact, junior guard Jevon Carter, standing at a mere 6-2, was the leading rebounder in the defeat. The Mountaineers are holding out hope that Ahmad will be deemed healthy for the Big12 Tournament.
