This article is part of our College Capper series.
While I'd been hot, I'd been flirting with disaster simply by the actual games I was choosing. That finally bit me last week as I trusted some less than stellar teams as underdogs and ended with my first losing week since Week 7. Let's see if we can get back on track and coast to a winning season-long record with so few weeks remaining.
I try hard to not swing too far on one team one week to the next. Louisiana is that team this week. They bit me at Troy, covering with a big second half. I like them, a lot, at Liberty this weekend as underdogs, but won't officially list them due to last week's result.
Louisville (-20.5) at Duke (Thursday)
Line shop please, as this seems to be moving against my favor but is still available at some books at -19 or -19.5 But frankly, I feel okay at any number under three touchdowns. Duke is just awful. They are 0-6 in-conference, being outscored a combined 264-87, allowing at least 45 points in four straight. Nothing they've done of late suggests they'll be competitive over the final two weeks. Louisville's defense allows 25.0 ppg, so if they hit their average and Duke allows their current trend, we're right at it. Duke is also heavily run-oriented offensively, and the Cards allow just 3.9 ypc. In need of a win for bowl eligibility and Kentucky looming next week, we'll get their best effort and a route.