College Capper: Best Bets Week 5

Chris' Picks

Still sitting right at .500, all because I forced myself into another totals loser. I also forced last week's Texas pick as I really didn't like a fifth game, and further adding a winning total in the comments, and Miami smashed as well. So, there are winners out there, and hopefully we're close to a big week. With that in mind, the first three picks here came easily...let's hope they hit. The last two...I stared at a screen for a while. Low confidence. Staying away from some chalky LSU (-20.5) and Mississippi State (-18) type picks.

Pittsburgh (-14) vs. North Carolina State

I really don't like moving from against to in favor of one team in consecutive weeks. But Pittsburgh's defense is elite. They are allowing just 177.0 yards per game, leading the nation with 34 tackles for loss. That seems rather ominous for NCST, who's allowing 9.0 through two games. I still don't trust the Panthers offense to do anything explosive, and this line opened at 13.5, and I expect it to close north of 14. But Pittsburgh will cover because the Wolfpack will hardly score. Adding more confidence is that North Carolina State has allowed 87 points in two games.

Cincinnati (-21.5) vs. USF

So long as the Bearcats are motivated, they should route the Bulls, a team they struggled against last year, winning just 20-17. They are putting up 39.5 points and allowing only 15.0 through two contests, while USF scored a mere 27 points against the Citadel and were shut out 52-0 by Notre Dame. There's no offensive upside in the Bulls, where as Cincinnati can win on either side, owning a defense that held Army in check last week, and an offense led by veteran QB Desmond Ridder. A let down is my only concern.

Virginia Tech (-10.5) at Duke

This could be a shade risky given we don't know availability across the Hokies roster, but they impressed last Saturday against the Wolfpack, namely rushing for 314 yards. Perhaps more importantly, they managed seven tackles for loss. Duke is just a bad football team that looks worse weekly. There's no excuse for allowing 38 points to Virginia. The negative plays will put this offense that is void of any big play potential behind the sticks, and the Blue Devils have also committed a whopping 14 turnovers in three games. Barring rapid improvement to perfection there, the Hokies win this going away.

Western Kentucky (-7) at Middle Tennessee State

MTSU is shaping up to be one of the nation's worst teams, a bit surprising given the presence of QB Asher O'Hara. They've dropped games to Army, UTSA and Troy, allowing at least 37 points in each defeat, surrendering 580 yards and eight rushing scores in their first two games before UTSA took to the air last week. Western Kentucky has underperformed, and frankly, this will be the last week I trust them if they don't come through. Their defense hasn't been close to last year's standards, but this should be a step down in competition and a step up in results. The offense too is struggling, oddly not giving 1,200 yard rusher Gaej Walker many touches but funneling through Tyrell Pigrome. Hopefully this is a get right spot on both sides of the ball.

Missouri (+12) at Tennessee

Had to slip one underdog in here, and I think there are some live ones throughout the SEC this week. The Tigers held Alabama to 3.1 yards per carry last week, and if they can have similar success here, the Vols don't possess a dynamic receiver like 'Bama's Jaylen Waddle who can loosen things up. I don't think Missouri wins outright, but I trust HC Eli Drinkwitz to scheme well enough to put a few points on the board and keep this within a score.

Last Week: 2-2-1, Season 9-9-1

GREG'S PICKS

Another strong week as I hit on three out of five. It's always a bummer losing your last pick as 4-1 sounds so much better than 3-2, but I'll take a winning week every time. There was no theme to this past week as the wins came in all shapes and sizes. The over in the UCF game was a fight the entire way, while the Tulane win was a runaway. The Baylor win took some time to come to fruition, but the Bears made in comfortable in the end. The losses were on the Oklahoma State over, which was on pace at the half, but fizzled in the 2nd half and Troy, which was trounced by BYU. And yes, I'll admit that I underestimated BYU.

We have our biggest slate of the year this week and plenty of good options to choose from. I'll be back to picking five games per week for the foreseeable future.  

Florida (-18) vs South Carolina 

Though the final score didn't quite indicate it, Florida handled Mississippi this past week and if not for a couple late scores, it would have appeared more like the blowout that it was. Florida looks like a legitimate force this season and its offense will be the main reason why. The Gators face a Gamecock squad that was torched through the air this past week by Tennessee, which isn't exactly an air-raid offense. The Gators will get anything they want on offense this week, but in order to cover this number, they'll need to play a little more defense. After a bad performance this past week against a capable Ole Miss squad, I'm expecting some improvement on that side of the ball.            

TCU (+11.5) at Texas

The Longhorns have been a machine on offense this season, but as good as they've been on offense, they've been just as bad on defense. The Longhorns will focus on that defense this week in an effort to right the ship, but rarely do these things fix themselves in one week. TCU has its own issues on defense, but some of its failings this past week can be attributed to playing its first game against an Iowa State that already had a game under its belt. Even with that disadvantage, the Horned Frogs nearly pulled out a victory this past week. Texas should put up a lot of points, but this number is just a bit too large for a team that hasn't played any defense against a legit opponent this season.           

Boston College (+13.5) vs North Carolina 

Perhaps the opening-week ATS loss against North Carolina is still stinging as the Tar Heels waited until very late in the game to spoil my Syracuse play, but I'm still not sold on this team living up the hype. Then again, the way the Orangemen have played the past couple games, maybe that win was more impressive than it looked. Whatever the case, Boston College enters this game 2-0 and one of those wins came as a TD-underdog on the road at Duke. Duke isn't a juggernaut by any means, but a conference road win is still pretty impressive. What that showed me is that this team has some fight in it and the Eagles will battle to keep this close. It certainly doesn't hurt that the Tar Heels have been off for the past three weeks either.        

Over (64) Texas Tech at Kansas State

This one looks a little too easy, which is always worrisome, but it's hard to imagine these two teams suddenly find defenses after this past week. Actually, it's been two poor showings on defense for Kansas State as the Wildcats surrendered 35 in its opener against Arkansas State. Now, some might say that allowing 35 to Oklahoma isn't all that bad and I kind of agree with that, but the fact of the matter is, they've played two games and they are averaging 35 points against per game. Texas Tech has allowed 33 and 63 points in its first two games this season and while the Longhorns have a better offense than Kansas State, like KSU, the Red Raider defense played poorly in its first game as well.    

 Oklahoma State (-21.5) at Kansas

Three touchdowns is a might big number for a squad that has yet to put up 28 points in either of its games, but there are two factors in-play this week that are pushing me towards the Cowboys. First and foremost, we are talking about Kansas and until the Jayhawks show me some fight, I'm going to fade them. Second, OSU QB Spencer Sanders is supposed to be back this week and that changes everything for this offense. The Cowboys have leaned on their defense in the absence of Sanders, which will also work in our favor here. With a more capable defense and a suddenly potent offense, the Cowboys will cruise in this spot.            

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 6-10-0