College Capper: Week 2 Picks

Chris' Picks

A second straight winning week to open the year has me feeling decent. Week 2 is usually a classic overreaction week, so let's see if we can avoid those pitfalls. Lots of road teams for me, which could be a bit risky given full stands, but I'm banking on being able to be ahead of some lines 

(All lines courtesy of DraftKings as of Wednesday night, shopping around is highly encouraged.)

Pittsburgh (-3) at Tennessee

I just don't see an easy path to points for the Volunteers. They ran through Bowling Green last week, which I'm not sure is something to brag about (more on them later). There's no way they are going to find that kind of success against a loaded Pittsburgh front. And when forced to pass, they'll find even less success, similar to last week when they averaged 6.0 yards per attempt. Pitt is capable on offense under veteran QB Kenny Pickett and emerging star wideout Jordan Addison. They won't need a ton of points to cover, but will get more than enough.

UAB (+24.5) at Georgia

My first of two heavy dogs where I'm hoping the opponent just doesn't get up. We saw how elite the Georgia defense is, but here's to hoping they aren't as interested in the Blazers as they were the Tigers last weekend. UAB's defense is solid, and the Dawgs aren't juggernauts offensively. Look for the Blazers to use a methodical rushing attack and defense to keep this somewhat competitive.

Ball State (+23.5) at Penn State

Ball State is a middling MAC team that absolutely could get run out by 40+ points here. But I'm banking on Penn State being completely disinterested. They're off a huge win at Wisconsin and are fixing to host Auburn for a whiteout in Week 3. The Nittany Lions' defense is elite, but I'm not sure the offense is. If the Cardinals scratch, they should keep it within the number.

South Alabama (-14) at Bowling Green

Can we talk about how bad Bowling Green is? They mustered only 219 yards in last week's loss at Tennesee, losing 38-6. They dropped all five of their games last season (all in conference) by a minimum of 25 points, three times scoring 10 or less, and twice scoring just three points. USA is coming off of an impressive with against Southern Miss (31-7) where they went in as a near pick 'em. South Carolina turned Utah quarterback Jake Bentley gives them a big fish in a small pond, and WR Jalen Tolbert is an elite player. I expect the defense will give up a hair more than last week, but not much, and the Jags will score with ease.

North Carolina State (-2.5) at Mississippi State

This feels like two programs at different spots. Mississippi State didn't settle on a QB before last week's contest, and while Will Rogers showed well, does he have HC Mike Leach's full buy-in? The Bulldogs have no run game to speak of, and that one-dimensional passing attack should feed into the Wolfpack's defensive acumen. NC State is a senior-led program that's balanced offensively, though led by a ground and pound from Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person. They'll find timely passing success while that rushing attack keeps the Bulldogs' offense sidelined and frustrated.

Last week: 3-2; Season 6-3

GREG'S PICKS

One full week into the college football season and it sure feels like it's back. Some sports really rely on their fans and college football is certainly one of them. Last season was exciting in spots, but for the most part, we were left wondering what it would look like with a little atmosphere. There are no concerns about that now as everything appears to be back to normal. I know I mentioned it last week, that it's not back to normal, but as long as there are fans in the stands, it sure feels like it did two years ago.

As for my picks, well, another break-even week as I was bit by a tough break in one game, but the other three were fairly straightforward. The tough loss was the Gophers, who were in great position all game only to fall behind the number in the 4th quarter. They managed to get inside the number with a late score but as was the case all night, Ohio State hit a big play to cover. The other loss was Northwestern which ran into a Michigan State squad that might be greatly improved this year. The wins were on South Dakota, which covered easily at Kansas, and Alabama, which blew out Miami. 

All lines courtesy of draftkings.com

Coastal Carolina (-25) vs Kansas

After one week, it appears as though both teams are similar to their 2020 versions. Kansas struggled with a team that it should have beaten easily at home and Coastal Carolina took care of business against a team it should have beat handily. This may seem like a big chunk to lay with a non-power 5 team playing a team from the Big-12, but Coastal Carolina not only needs to win, but it needs to impress. Teams from power conferences know that they just need to win out to make the playoff, but Coastal Carolina needs to impress, not necessarily to make the playoff, but to make it to a bigger bowl game.             

Over (63.5) Oregon at Ohio State 

I wasn't terribly impressed with either team this past weekend, but in particular neither defense looked very sharp. In Ohio State's case, its defense couldn't contain a decent Minnesota offense for much of the night and the Ducks surrendered 24 to Fresno State. As far as the offense is concerned, Ohio State looks like a big play offense and points will not be hard to come by this season. Oregon is not the fast-paced team that it was under Chip Kelly, but it's certainly good enough to take advantage of what looks like a less than elite OSU defense.  

South Florida (+28.5) vs Florida

South Florida could not have looked worse this past week and Florida looked good enough in a 21-point win over FAU, so what gives? South Florida lost by 45 this past week at N.C. State and now it faces a better team, yet 28.5 is enough? A couple things at play here. First, South Florida was terrible this past week and unless they are truly a terrible team, which I don't think they are, they'll play better this week. The other factor, which we shouldn't ignore is that Florida plays Alabama next week. I find it hard to believe that these kids will be paying much attention to the game plan this week as opposed to looking ahead to the following week.

UAB (+24.5) at Georgia

On the opposite side of the lookahead is Georgia, which is coming off a huge win against Clemson this past week. Will the Bulldogs be ready to play this week after such a huge win? Maybe, maybe not, but if they are sluggish at all, UAB will be ready to pounce. UAB is no slouch and while its offense might not be elite, its defense is certainly in the conversation. I'm expecting Georgia to start slowly and never really get rolling on its way to a one or two-score victory.

Iowa State (-4.5) vs Iowa

This game got the perfect setup after this past week's results. I could not have asked for a better pair of results. Iowa State barely squeezed by Northern Iowa and Iowa pummeled what looked like a solid Indiana team. Iowa's win, while very impressive, might be a little misleading. The Hawkeyes hit on a big play early, then immediately backed it up with a defense score and after another defense score, it was out of hand. They played a great game, but I'm not sold on their offense yet. Iowa State has nearly everyone back from a very good team this past year and I can understand why they might have overlooked UNI this past week. Look for the Cyclones to play much better this week and grab the victory and the cover.

Last Week: 2-2-0, Last Season: 3-3-0