College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 13

CHRIS' PICKS

Took home my first losing week in some time last week, but I don't consider any of the loses to be "bad." There's no room for moral victories, however, so it's time to close the regular season with big wins.

Virginia +7.5 vs. Virginia Tech (Friday)

I went back and forth on this pick, but feel compelled to include it one way or another as a resident of the Commonwealth. Part of me says Virginia is emotionally crushed after playing with Miami for three quarters last week, and coach Bronco Mendenhall said as much Monday. Part of me thinks Virginia Tech's offense is inconsistent at best, and broken and lacking confidence at worst, and has no business being favored this much. The Hokies have won 13 consecutive and 17 of the last 18 meetings in this rivalry, and I think they win again Friday. But they also probably should be riding a three-game losing streak into the game, and I think a lack of confidence on the field, not against the opponent, allows the Cavaliers to stay close enough to cover.

Ohio State –11.5 at Michigan

This appears to fall into the too obvious category for me. The simple question is how will Michigan score enough to keep this close? In three games against Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin, the Wolverines have totaled 33 points. Ohio State ranks 22nd nationally in scoring defense and has held opponents to 14 points or less six times. The Buckeyes also have been held to less than 24 points just twice. It's largely irrelevant to me who is under center for the Wolverines, as I think Ohio State wins this going away.

Boston College –3.5 at Syracuse

This pick is contingent on Orange quarterback Eric Dungey remaining sidelined, which seems like a near certainty as coach Dino Babers said his quarterback will be ready for next season but declined to confirm his status for spring, let alone Saturday. Syracuse's run defense has completely folded the last three weeks, allowing 329.7 yards per game and 7.6 yards per carry. That seems like a very bad trend with AJ Dillon coming to town. Boston College has rushed for at least 236 yards in five consecutive games and has proven it will hand off time after time until the defense's will is broken. And with four consecutive losses and bowl eligibility off the table, the Orange might already be out of will.

Oklahoma -22.5 vs. West Virginia

The Mountaineers didn't put up much of a fight following the injury to quarterback Will Grier last week and look to be a defeated team. This number is bigger than I hoped, but I have little faith in the Mountaineers slowing Oklahoma and expect Baker Mayfield to go out in style in his final home game. That doesn't even touch on West Virginia scoring itself, which figures to be challenging without Grier.

Notre Dame –2 at Stanford

I like the way Notre Dame rebounded last week against Navy after the emotional and physical beating it took at Miami a week prior, holding the Midshipmen to 3.85 yards per carry. That gives me hope the Irish can slow a hobbling Bryce Love enough to win this game. Stanford has been terrific at home, winning all five of its games at Stanford Stadium by an average of 17.4, which gives me some hesitation. But the Cardinal also struggled to stop the run, allowing 171.7 yards per game, three times allowing north of 200 yards. I look for the Irish to rediscover their offensive mojo in this one, and pick up the road win.

Last week: 2-3; Season: 34-31-2

GREG'S PICKS

It's taken more than three months, but I've finally run out of ways to describe a 3-2 week. I've come from behind, come from ahead, everything you can imagine and somehow, I almost always end up 3-2. Again, not complaining, just running dry in the adjective department. As for the games, Minnesota was a bad loss as the Gophers were terrible from the get go. The Ohio State game was painful. Had the conditions been better OR the starters played a down in the second half, the Buckeyes would have cruised to a 50-point win. Georgia was a nice win as the Bulldogs were sluggish early but came to life near the end of the first half. Virginia was the easiest win of the bunch as the Cavs were safely inside the number the entire game. The most unexpected win was Oklahoma, which hit a late field goal to get over the number. That win was unexpected because the Sooners were not sharp, yet they mustered enough on offense to cover.



TCU -24.5 vs. Baylor



TCU looked terrible two weeks ago in Norman, but the Horned Frogs turned it around pretty quickly as they routed Texas Tech last week, 27-3. No, Texas Tech is not the machine it once was, but holding the Red Raiders to three points is impressive nonetheless. Baylor, meanwhile, lost again at home, to a decent Iowa State team, and the Bears' terrible season is nearly at an end. This number looks pretty big as the Horned Frogs haven't flashed a ton on offense, but I honestly don't think Baylor will score, so TCU merely needs to get to 25 points. Baylor is averaging little more than 13 points in its last four games, and this is easily the best defense it will see all year.


Arkansas +10 vs. Missouri



As bad as the Missouri Tigers looked early in the season, I would have never imagined they would be going bowling and a double-digit favorite on the road at Arkansas. In fact, I still don't believe the latter, because it shouldn't be. Yes, Missouri has improved a lot the last two months, but a 10-point favorite at Arkansas? The Hogs are having a bad season, but one thing they've done all year is put up a good fight at home. The Hogs stayed within a score last week against Mississippi State and can certainly do the same here. Missouri's turnaround has coincided with the soft part of its schedule, and let me tell you, it's about as soft as any five-game stretch in the country and this game will actually be the Tigers' toughest test since early October. 



Michigan +11.5 vs. Ohio State

Get ready to hold your nose and possibly hide your eyes for three-plus hours, because this one isn't going to be pretty. I'm talking about the Michigan perspective that is because the Wolverines have rarely looked like a thing of beauty this season, but if this game plays out like I think it will, the Wolverines will ugly up this game just enough to cover. I will admit that there is a bit of an anti-OSU bias as I am just tired of hearing about the Buckeyes' chances to sneak back into the playoffs, even though they have two blowout losses and only one quality win, but I digress. Factor in the bias, because it might be pushing me toward Michigan, but I think the Wolverines will play their best game all season. OSU has been good at blowing out bad teams this season, but this isn't that type of game.

Tennessee -1 vs. Vanderbilt



This, of all games, will be the truest test to see just how far the Volunteers have fallen. We know that they've had a terrible season, but are they going to let their terrible in-state rival come into their house and beat them? I don't think so, as they should muster up what pride they have left and dispatch the Commodores. I could pull out stats to make a case for either team – rather, I could make a case against either team with a subset of stats – but this game isn't about stats and that's why Tennessee gets the win. Vanderbilt started the season well, but the Commodores have been as bad, if not worse, than the Volunteers the last two months.

Alabama -4.5 at Auburn

It's not often you can take Alabama and lay less than a TD. While it hasn't worked out the last two times against Clemson, this is not Clemson and Deshaun Watson is nowhere to be seen. This isn't a slight against Auburn. I had them pegged to beat Georgia two weeks ago, and man did the Tigers beat Georgia. This is 100 percent about Alabama and the fact that it just have to win a game by five points. This is another "feel" game; I'm not worried about the stats. I'm thinking about which team is ready for this stage. More times than not over the last decade, Nick Saban has had his players ready for the big stage.

Last Week: 3-2; Season: 35-26