This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.In Week 3, a close friend of mine in the industry, "RadThad," took down the $33 World Championship Qualifier on DraftKings. He did it with a lineup that, when you look at it, makes a lot of sense. He took a lot of high-ceiling players who were lower owned and almost all of them went off. He also won this contest with just one single entry, which is a tremendous feat as you will see by some of the math below.
This week's article will cover Thad's lineup and I will also go over his players' percent-owned by position/player so you can see why it is important to "fade the chalk" in a contest like this, which is basically an "all or none" result. I also have an interview with the man, RadThad himself.
Q: Did you plan on playing the qualifier?
Playing in the qualifier was a last-minute decision. I usually spend some time constructing last-minute lineups prior to lineup lock, but the majority of those end up in the trash. This lineup looked good and made a lot of sense with regards to GPP potential so I decided to take a shot in a lower-entry-fee qualifier.
Q: Your lineup had players that had high ceiling and projected low ownership. Was that by design?
Absolutely. Whenever I'm constructing a cash-game lineup I'm looking for value plays and plays with high floors, without worrying about the level of ownership. In tournaments, the best strategy is to have known studs that stand a chance to reach their potential, while, at the same time, going overlooked by the rest of the crowd.
Q: You only had one entry whereas most of the pros were putting in up to 77, is that your normal strategy?
I usually focus on single entry or three-max entry tournaments, so I don't construct very many tournament lineups each week. Whenever I submit too many entries, I end up with watered-down versions of the lineups I like the most.
Q: Will you try to qualify for this final again or another one on a different week?
I'll definitely try to qualify again, but securing a live final seat early removes any pressure I may have put on myself the rest of the season. Chasing qualifiers can be a costly endeavor, so while I'll try to take down another one I won't do so at the expense of my bankroll.
Q: What advice would you give a new/beginner/small-stakes player towards playing qualifiers?
There's a benefit to approaching qualifiers with some sort of strategy in mind. I find that the best times to qualify are at the beginning of the season (when players are still trying to uncover trends and are distracted by other sports) or at the end of the season (once the "big dogs" have maxed out their qualifiers and others have seen their bankrolls dry up). Like I said before, this can be a costly endeavor so it's important to monitor your bankroll closely.
Q: Were you surprised at how low the ownership was on the players in your lineup?
I was very surprised at the level of ownership for the players in my lineup. I rostered very popular players that are known for their success (i.e. Tom Brady, Odell Beckham Jr., etc.) and didn't take shots on random players. It's a little easier to do this at the beginning of the season, because once known studs have their breakout games, their ownership levels stay elevated for the remainder of the season.
Q: How much time did you spend on this lineup?
This lineup only took a few minutes to construct, however, I did spend much of the week evaluating matchups and trying to gauge levels of ownership. I usually construct lineups by hand, so they get easier to put together as the week goes on.
Q: Did you play this lineup in any other contests?
I did enter this lineup in the DraftKings Red Cross Relief NFL Charity Contest and a single-entry contest (I took first place in both). By the time I decided the lineup was GPP worthy, most of the available contests were full.
Q: Take us through each player and why you picked each.
Tom Brady (NE) - After coming off a three-touchdown game against the New Orleans Saints, Brady's price increased so he wasn't a value play. New England had the highest implied team total on the slate, however, most were convinced that their scoring would come through the run game.
Dalvin Cook (MIN) - As a rookie running back, the jury was still out with regard to Cooks' usage. He had a great Week 1 performance (22 rushing attempts for 127 yards), but his Week 2 effort left a lot to be desired (12 rushing attempts for 64 yards). I liked his matchup (Tampa Bay) and knew that there were other running backs in his price range that would garner more attention.
Derrick Henry (TE) - There was a good chance that DeMarco Murray (hamstring) would sit for this game, but there was no official word until prior to kick off. This left Henry in a good spot to potentially see an increased workload which is always good for a player with his talent level. Even with a shared backfield, he could end up getting into the end zone.
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) - Beckham was still working his way back to full health from an ankle injury and had not had a breakout performance yet. He looked healthy and is always someone with GPP-winning upside.
Brandin Cooks (NE) - After disappointing everyone in his "revenge game" narrative against the Saints, no one was going to roster him. He's an incredibly talented wide receiver, so it was only a matter of time before he and Tom Brady (correlation play) got on the same page.
DeSean Jackson (TB) - Jackson had a great WR/CB matchup as the WR2 for Tampa Bay, but it appeared as though he would be overlooked for similar options in his price range.
Jared Cook (OAK) - Cook was my way to get exposure to the Sunday night game as my "late-night hammer." This game had a high over/under and most players were focused on the wide receivers on both teams (Oakland and Washington). Washington's defense against tight ends seemed like the path of least resistance and up to that point Cook had received a significant amount of Derek Carr's targets.
Chris Thompson (WAS) - Thompson was another way to get exposure to the Sunday night game and served as a correlation play with Jared Cook in a matchup that was expected to go back and forth. Rob Kelly (ribs) was nursing an injury, so I expected Thompson to have an increased role in the offense.
Tennessee D/ST - Talented defense, as well as a correlation play with Derrick Henry.
• $33 entry
• First place = Entry in the 2017 DraftKings Fantasy Football Championship ($66,000 value)
• 140 places paid (5.6 percent of the field)
• $2 million first prize, 200 qualifiers, $12 million total
• 2056 out of 2,492 entries were from users with more than one entry (83 percent)
• 12 users put in the maximum 77 entries for a total of 924 entries (37 percent)
• 436 entries were from users that had a single entry (17 percent)
The majority of players that did multiple entries lost money and a significant amount. Savvy large volume players will allocate a percent of their bankroll specifically for these types of contest and they understand that it's a 1st place win or nothing result. The lure of the fame to say you qualified for a live final to compete for a million dollars is a powerful thing.
Radthad's Winning Lineup
|QB||Tom Brady||2.8||5 PaTD, 378 PaYds, 1 300+Pass, 1 FUM, 6 RuYds, 1 2PtPass||39.7|
|RB||Dalvin Cook||9.8||1 RuTD, 97 RuYds, 72 RecYds, 5 REC||27.9|
|RB||Derrick Henry||3.6||10 RecYds, 1 REC, 54 RuYds||7.4|
|WR||Odell Beckham Jr.||4.8||2 RecTD, 79 RecYds, 9 REC||28.9|
|WR||Brandin Cooks||3.1||2 RecTD, 131 RecYds, 5 REC, 1 100+Rec, 1 2PT||35.1|
|WR||DeSean Jackson||11.8||1 RecTD, 84 RecYds, 4 REC||18.4|
|TE||Jared Cook||14.9||1 RecTD, 43 RecYds, 4 REC||14.3|
|FLEX||Chris Thompson||10.0||1 RecTD, 150 RecYds, 6 REC, 1 100+Rec, 38 RuYds||33.8|
The first thing that jumps off the page is how on earth was Tom Brady just 2.8 percent owned??? Well, most players tend to gravitate towards the cheaper quarterbacks on DraftKings so the expensive ones like a Brady, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers often go under-owned. Pairing with Brandin Cooks was brilliant as most people got burned by Cooks vs. the Saints and didn't go back to the well.
Dalvin Cook was on the verge of a huge breakout going into Week 3 and his price was still low. One of the plays that could have been a monster, but did not work out was Derrick Henry. Again very low owned, but a player that if everything broke right could have provided a 20-25 point game. Even though Henry had a subpar game, it didn't matter because in a field of 2500 or so, you don't need to be 100 percent perfect. If you miss on a player or two but hit on a couple others it can offset.
Odell Beckham was under-owned because he has not been 100 percent and the Giants offense has suffered. But knowing the Eagles' secondary was vulnerable, Beckham's high price tag, but high ceiling, made him a fit for this lineup.
The final wide receiver was DeSean Jackson whose salary on DraftKings has been mysteriously low, making him a popular play at 11.8 percent. While it was not the "chalk," he was on a lot of folks' radar because of the deep-ball threat.
Jared Cook has been a popular value play just about every week so far and was Thad's highest-owned player at 14.9 percent. It's interesting that Cook was just under 15 percent and Thad did not have anyone on his team with an ownership above 15. This was incredibly played and fortunate.
Chris Thompson fits the perfect FLEX play on DraftKings -- that PPR RB with a super-cheap price in a high-total game. Once Rob Kelley was ruled out along with Jordan Reed, this opened up a lot for Thompson. Of course, he had the game of his life and was probably the key to Thad winning the qualifier.
His last pick was the Titans D/ST, which only scored one point, but no other defenses that were heavily owned went off so it didn't have a negative impact on his finish.
Here is the breakdown of percent owned by position and highest scores by position.
Quarterback – Percent Owned
Quarterback – Highest Scores
Three out of the top five QBs failed to hit value. Brady and Wilson were on the radar for some and paid off in a huge way. No one could have predicted Case Keenum's breakout game.
Running Back – Percent Owned
Running Back – Highest Scores
|Duke Johnson Jr.||0.96||22.4|
Hunt, Freeman, and McCaffrey were the RBs that hit value and were at least 10-percent owned. Chris Thompson at just less than 10 percent and finishing second overall at RB was a key to Thad's win.
Wide Receiver – Percent Owned
|Terrelle Pryor Sr.||18.58||3.9|
Wide Receiver – Highest Scores
|Odell Beckham Jr.||4.78||28.9|
A.J. Green was the chalk at WR because of the matchup and price. He paid off for everyone, but the majority of the group did not. This helped Thad who had T.Y. Hilton at 9 percent owned, and Brandin Cooks at 3 percent owned.
Tight End – Percent Owned
Tight End – Highest Scores
Ertz and Cook were the top-two TEs to hit value and have at least 10 percent ownership.
Defense – Percent Owned
Defense – Highest Scores
Fortunately, there were no D/STs that went off for 20-plus points so that helped cushion the Titans' one-point performance. The Eagles and Panthers did not provide a return to 35 percent of the field.
Here are some of the basic strategies that Thad used to win:
• Pair QB with WR
• Pair RB with D/ST
• Avoid chalk plays, especially at the WR position
• PPR RB value play at FLEX
• Chalk at TE is ok based on limited ceiling for the position