Surviving Week 3

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Updated on September 18, 2019 10:48AM EST

Last week you had to sweat a bit with the Ravens, while the Pats rolled. Hopefully, you didn't go off the board with the Panthers on Thursday night.

Let's take a look at this week's slate.

Team	Opponent	%Taken*	Vegas ML**	Vegas Odds	Expected Loss
COWBOYS	Dolphins	56.40%	2450	96.08	2.21
PATRIOTS	Jets	17.90%	2800	96.55	0.62
PACKERS	Broncos	8.10%	340	77.27	1.84
VIKINGS	Raiders	5.80%	365	78.49	1.25
49ERS	Steelers	3.50%	270	72.97	0.95
BUCCANEERS	Giants	2.10%	267.5	72.79	0.57
BILLS	Bengals	1.70%	240	70.59	0.50
EAGLES	Lions	1.60%	290	74.36	0.41
SEAHAWKS	Saints	0.90%	200	66.67	0.30

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines

I used the Patriots last week, so I'm on the Cowboys this week, but the Patriots are obviously the best choice once again, given their modest ownership and overwhelming likelihood of winning. But assuming like me, Dallas were your only option, how high would their ownership have to be before you'd pivot to the Vikings, for example?

Let's start with the risk ratio. A Cowboys win/Vikings loss is .96 * .215 = .206. A Vikings win/Cowboys loss is .04 * .785 = .031. The ratio of .206 to .031 is 6.65. You're taking on nearly seven times as much risk with the Vikings.

Let's look at the reward side of things. If you took the Cowboys and the Vikings lost, six people would go down with the Vikings, and roughly another six on other

Last week you had to sweat a bit with the Ravens, while the Pats rolled. Hopefully, you didn't go off the board with the Panthers on Thursday night.

Let's take a look at this week's slate.

Team	Opponent	%Taken*	Vegas ML**	Vegas Odds	Expected Loss
COWBOYS	Dolphins	56.40%	2450	96.08	2.21
PATRIOTS	Jets	17.90%	2800	96.55	0.62
PACKERS	Broncos	8.10%	340	77.27	1.84
VIKINGS	Raiders	5.80%	365	78.49	1.25
49ERS	Steelers	3.50%	270	72.97	0.95
BUCCANEERS	Giants	2.10%	267.5	72.79	0.57
BILLS	Bengals	1.70%	240	70.59	0.50
EAGLES	Lions	1.60%	290	74.36	0.41
SEAHAWKS	Saints	0.90%	200	66.67	0.30

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines

Let's look at the reward side of things. If you took the Cowboys and the Vikings lost, six people would go down with the Vikings, and roughly another six on other teams. That means in our standard 100-person remaining, $10 buy-in pool, 88 would be left. If we divide the total pot ($1000) by 88, we get $11.36

So in order for the Vikings to be break even with the Cowboys here, your equity from taking them would have to be $11.36 *6.65 = $75.54. So we're asking $1000 divided by what = 75.54? The answer, roughly 13, is how many people would need to be left in the event of a Cowboys loss. We know six people are projected to lose with other teams, so 81 would need to be on the Cowboys for the Vikings to be break-even.

So barring 82-percent ownership on the Cowboys, I'm taking them over all the non-Patriots options, and it's not especially close.

My Picks

1. New England Patriots

I don't have to explain they they're likely to win at home against Luke Falk making his first ever start. I give the Patriots a 96 percent chance to win this game.

2. Dallas Cowboys

I don't have to explain why they're likely to beat the Dolphins at home. I give the Cowboys a 96 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Packers, Vikings, 49ers, Buccaneers, Bills, Eagles, Seahawks

The omitted teams are not close enough to the top two to warrant an explanation.