Dan Bailey
Dan Bailey
31-Year-Old KickerK
Minnesota Vikings
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Bailey has been first or second on the all-time FG percentage leaderboard most of his career, but he's down to fifth after missing at least five kicks each of the last three years. The Vikings re-signed him to a one-year, incentive-laden contract with only $250k guaranteed, suggesting he could face training camp competition. The team context is at least decent, with a strong defense and competent offense. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a one-year, $1 million contract with the Vikings in March of 2019.
Stays in Minnesota
KMinnesota Vikings
March 19, 2019
Bailey is re-signing with the Vikings on a one-year, $1 million contract that maxes out at $2 million with incentives, Tom Pelissero of NFL.com reports.
With only $250,000 guaranteed, Bailey likely will face competition for the kicking job during training camp. His career field-goal percentage (86.6) is the fifth best in NFL history, but he's trending in the wrong direction after back-to-back seasons at exactly 75 percent. The 31-year-old missed five kicks in the 40-49 range last season, providing most of his value on extra points (30 of 31) and field goals under 40 yards (16 of 17). There will be better choices available at the end of fantasy drafts.
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dan Bailey
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
While Justin Tucker is the only kicker with a better lifetime conversion rate on field goals, Bailey showed major signs of decline the last two seasons, albeit with injuries seeming to play a role in his struggles. He was released by the Cowboys during final roster cut-downs and will look to catch on elsewhere.
After leading the league with a 93.8 percent field-goal conversion rate in 2015, Bailey regressed last year, missing five of his 32 attempts for a career-low 84.4 percent. However, three misses came from at least 50 yards and two more from at least 40, so at least he hit the attempts he should have, including a perfect 46 of 46 on his PATs. The Cowboys' offense is expected to be an elite unit again, which should give Bailey enough opportunities to climb the scoring chart, though a return to his high accuracy rate of the past would help.
After letting running back DeMarco Murray go last offseason and then seeing quarterback Tony Romo play just four games due to a shoulder injury, the Cowboys' offense struggled putting points on the board, finishing with the second-fewest in the NFL. However, Bailey's field goal attempts were fairly in line with previous seasons, as he's had between 29 and 32 attempts in each of the last four years. However, it was his lack of PATs that caused his fall in the kicker rankings, as his 25 were less than half his total from the year before. Bailey is surely poised to bounce back in 2016 with a healthy offense, and he could make a play for the top spot thanks to his excellent accuracy (he's never missed a PAT), as he's made at least 93 percent of his field-goal attempts three times in five years.
The Cowboys were fifth in scoring last season, which helped Bailey lead the league in PATs. However, Dallas' excellence at scoring touchdowns limited him to just 29 field-goal attempts (20th), and he finished with a career-low 25 made field goals, ranking eighth in kicker scoring. Not only were the Cowboys second in red-zone touchdown efficiency (64.9 percent), they also led the NFL in touchdowns of more than 20 yards. Bailey tied his career high with seven attempts from at least 50 yards, making five, but ultimately his fantasy production came from extra points. The Cowboys' offense should be productive again, but the unit is different in one major respect - the league's leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, left in free agency. Perhaps if the offense is less efficient without Murray, Bailey will get more field-goal attempts. While weather should not be overrated, Bailey plays at Green Bay and at Buffalo in Weeks 14 and 16, respectively.
The Cowboys made one of the offseason’s more perplexing moves in signing Bailey to a seven-year extension despite limited cap flexibility, but it’s not as though the optimism in his future was entirely unwarranted. Bailey has emerged as one of the league’s best kickers over his three-year career, hitting on 90.8 percent of his career field goal attempts, highlighted by an 11-for-16 mark from 50-plus yards. A consistently strong offense has gifted Bailey with at least 30 field goal and 37 extra point attempts in each of his three seasons, and the Cowboys still appear well-equipped at the skill positions, assuming health permits. It is worth noting, however, that three of Bailey’s final four games will come on the road in cold-weather cities, perhaps limiting his attempts down the stretch.
Aside from missing a 51-yarder with the game on the line in Week 6, Bailey's sophomore campaign was a rousing success – he was 29-for-31 (93.5 percent) on field goals and scored 124 points. That lofty rate is probably not sustainable, but Bailey has shown above-average accuracy and moderate kicking power through his first two seasons – his only two misses last year were from beyond 50 yards. The only area of concern for Bailey lies in his supporting cast. While the Cowboys have plenty of offensive weapons, much of their core was slowed by injuries last season, resulting in the team's 15th place finish in points. Bailey’s fortunes in 2013 likely will rise or fall with the health of the Cowboys' key offensive talents. It wouldn’t take much for him to get back into the 130-point range this season.
Although the Dallas offense was awash with talent at the skill positions last season, injuries and poor red-zone execution kept it near the middle of the pack in scoring. That was good news for Bailey, though, as it afforded him 37 field-goal attempts, fifth most in the league, en route to 135 points, also fifth most. The Cowboys found the end zone on less than half of their red-zone possessions last year, ranking 20th at 49 percent. While converting more of those into touchdowns will cost Bailey, improved offense overall should help offset that. An undrafted rookie free agent last year, Bailey ranked ninth with an 86.5 field-goal percentage and went 2-of-4 from 50-plus yards. Bailey’s biggest obstacle it seems is health of his offense, especially Tony Romo, who was sacked a career-high 36 times last season.
Undrafted rookie free agent will get a chance to win the starting kicking job in camp after an impressive college career, and could be a fantasy sleeper if he gets a chance to ride shotgun for a potent Cowboys offense.
More Fantasy News
Makes only attempt in season finale
KMinnesota Vikings
January 4, 2019
Bailey converted his sole field-goal attempt and made his only extra-point try during Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Bears.
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Picks up some chip shots
KMinnesota Vikings
December 23, 2018
Bailey converted all three of his extra-point attempts and connected on field-goal tries of 24 and 29 yards during Sunday's 27-9 win over Detroit.
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Perfect showing against Miami
KMinnesota Vikings
December 17, 2018
Bailey converted both of his field goals and all five of his extra-point attempts during Sunday's 41-17 victory over Miami.
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Has kick blocked
KMinnesota Vikings
December 11, 2018
Bailey had his only field-goal attempt blocked, but made his lone extra-point try in Monday night's 21-7 loss to the Seahawks.
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Misses field goal
KMinnesota Vikings
December 4, 2018
Bailey missed one of his two field-goal attempts but made his lone extra-point try in Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Patriots.
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